Dr Marco Langbroek Profile picture
May 30, 2020 11 tweets 7 min read Read on X
1/10
(English version of the thread I earlier posted in Dutch).
So, another launch attempt of the @SpaceX #CrewDragon tonight 30 May at 19:22 UT (21:22 CEST). If the weather doesn't interfere, because it is again not looking very positive: patrick.af.mil/About-Us/Weath… ImageImageImage
2/10
For NW Europe, the earlier launch time compared to 27 May means we will NOT see it pass some23 minutes after launch.
Depending on your location the sun is either still *up*, or only just set, as is visible in this map I made (times in UT, as +1h for BST, +2h for CEST): Image
3/10
East and Southeast Europe (basically, locations east of 13 degree E longitude) does have a good, visible #CrewDragon/Falcon pass 23 minutes after launch.
West Europe has a sighting opportunity at the SECOND pass near 23:18 CEST, but for NW Euroep verly low above the horizon
4/10
In this and the next tweets, first some sky charts for localities in East and Southeast Europe for the first #CrewDragon pass 23-25 minutes after launch, about 21:45 CEST.
Then sky charts for localities in West Europe for the second pass at about 23:18 CEST. ImageImageImageImage
5/10
More for localities that can see the first pass, 21:45 CEST ImageImageImageImage
6/10
Charts for localities in West Europe that can see the second pass near 23:18 CEST, but for NW Europe often very low above the horizon (the further south in Europe, the better). Note: the ISS will pass slightly higher in the sky a few minutes earlier! ImageImageImageImage
7/10
More charts for the second, 23:18 CEST pass for west Europe: ImageImage
8/10
Note that the heavens-above.com website can provide you with custom predictions for your location. However, for the 2nd pass near 23:18 UT, it is using a TLE for the first revolution, which might not be adequate for the 2nd revolution due to orbit adjustments.
9/10
For those in NW Europe trying the second pass 2 hours after launch, with the trajectory very low on the horizon: use binoculars and go to a place with unobstructed view to the horizon. And take an uncertainty of several minutes in the predicted pass times into account!
10/10
For the Dutch:
Een draadje in hte Nederlands met de situatie toegespitst op NL en B, is hier:
11/11
Oh: en when I wrote in tweet 9/10:
"go to a place with unobstructed view to the horizon".
I meant: only if the Corona measures in your country allow that, of course!

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More from @Marco_Langbroek

Nov 18, 2023
So, I did some simulations with GMAT.
Assumptions:
- For totally arbitrary drag area of 1 m^2;
- Near-orbital speed at disintegration;
- disintegration at 148 km;
labels are mass in kg of fragment.
@planet4589 @DJSnM @Ian_Benecken Image
2/x
additional info: no mass loss due to ablation upon reentry (this is important: if they do loose mass 9and they will), they come down earlier than in the map)
3/x
Nevertheless: they appear to be surviving a lot further downrange than I actually had anticipated.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 25, 2023
1/x
The very successful @AETUDelft-built 3U cubesat Delfi-C3, launched 15 yrs ago, is near the end of its life. It will probably reenter into the atmosphere next month.
Yesterday evening, I managed to image it with my tracking camera from Leiden, the Netherlands: Image
2/x
Here is the video footage (it is very faint, being a 3U cubesat, i.e. 10 x 10 x 30 cm large). Footage was shot at 25 fps with a WATEC 902H2 Supreme and Samyang 2.0/135 mm lens.
3/x
Over the past months, the cubesat has been coming down increasingly fast. Currently it is in a 351 x 365 km orbit (when launched in 2008, it was at 615 x 635 km) Image
Read 8 tweets
Feb 18, 2023
Approximate trajectory flown by the #ICBM that #NorthKorea tested today. A highly lofted trajectory.
(reconstruction based on Japanese DoD info).

When launched on a 'normal', non-lofted trajectory, the range would be 18000+ km, i.e. capable of reaching any place on Earth
Trajectory is based on rough information on apogee, range, and map with approximate impact point provided by Japanese DoD here:
mod.go.jp/j/press/news/2…
It will be interesting to see what missile it concerns when Northg Korea publishes their propaganda photo's. Hwasong-17? Something new?
Read 9 tweets
Aug 1, 2022
Rumour has it that thisd might be another inspector satellite.
The orbital plane of USA 326 passes over Plesetsk at 20:25 UT
USA 326 (2022-009A) was launched on February 2 this year and is believed to be a new generation of electro-optical reconnaissance satellite:
sattrackcam.blogspot.com/2022/02/the-up…
It is in a 97.4 deg inclined, 518 x 488 km orbit.
The Russian launch today was indeed at 20:25 UTC, right at the moment the USA 326 orbital plane passed over Plesetsk (i.e. the launch was into the orbital plane of USA 326):
interfax.ru/russia/854824
Read 6 tweets
Feb 26, 2022
1/x
Navigational Warnings have appeared that suggest a #test launch of a #Minuteman #ICBM from Vandenberg on March 3 - 4.

(I suspect 1 or 2 more NavWarnings to appear for areas around Kwajalein, based on previous tests)
@nukestrat @mhanham @wslafoy @ArmsControlWonk ImageImage
2/x
To be clear (as such suggestions always arrise):
This has *nothing* to do with the Ukraine crisis. Tests like these are scheduled months in advance.
They are regular tests to ascertain the readiness and training of missile crews.
3/x
As I expected, another Navigational Warning has appeared, adding an extra hazard area west of Kwajalein.
Updated map for this upcoming #Minuteman III test (probably GT240GM): ImageImage
Read 8 tweets
Oct 17, 2021
1/x
(lange) draad:
Het gaat véél verder dan een "hypersonische raket": de Fin. Times claimt dat de Chinese test een test voor FOBS betrof...

FOBS staat voor "Fractional Orbital Bormbardment System". FOBS lanceer je niet op een ballistisch traject zoals een normale ICBM, (cont.)
2/x
...maar worden echt in een baan om de aarde gebracht, zoals een satelliet. Waarna op een gegeven moment met een deorbit burn door een retroraket, de lading weer omlaag wordt gebracht, boven het doelwit.
Welnu: waarom zou je dit zo doen in plaats van een normale ICBM lanceren?
3/x
Het voordeel van FOBS is dat het je toestaat toe te slaan vanuit richtingen die met gewone ICBM's niet worden verwacht. Via een traject over de zuidpool bijvoorbeeld. Dan benader je de VS (het doelwit) vanuit het zuiden (gele lijn), terwijl
Read 26 tweets

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