Thread by @AntheaERoberts

@cosmicpinot I'm not sure we have an answer, but we are observing many important trends.

If you don't already follow him, @ericfish85 is one of the best commentators on policies re Chinese students and researchers in the US. Here is his latest from SupChina

supchina.com/2020/05/12/end…

@cosmicpinot @ericfish85 The US visa restrictions fit within a much broader sweep of measures re #geoeducation including cutting down on research collaborations, prosecuting Thousand Talents people who didn't declare, butting back on optional training extensions, looking more seriously re CIs etc.

@cosmicpinot @ericfish85 And these within the broader swathe of #geoeconomic measures like export controls, restrictions on Chinese inward investments (CFIUS), national security trade exemptions etc. They all suggest a strong movement toward some level of technological decoupling, esp re ICT, quantum etc

@cosmicpinot @ericfish85 The effect on Chinese students/researchers is likely to be significant.

"By investigating Tan and other Chinese researchers for nondisclosure, the U.S. government is accomplishing what Thousand Talents has struggled to do."

propublica.org/article/the-tr…

@cosmicpinot @ericfish85 "A survey carried out found that, of 54 school-based college counsellors in China questioned, 87% said that Chinese students and parents were reconsidering their plans for studying in the US and diversifying their options of college destinations."

thepienews.com/news/chinese-f…

@cosmicpinot @ericfish85 I'm really struck by the huge upswing in Chinese students returning to China after they study, which will have an enormous impact on China's innovation base. The increase has been phenomenal, with clear push and pull factors.

economist.com/special-report…

@cosmicpinot @ericfish85 I'm also struck by the ideological conflicts that some of the Chinese students are experiencing having studied in Western states.

supchina.com/2018/01/18/cau…

@cosmicpinot @ericfish85 Of course, many US and also Aus universities have become heavily reliant on foreign student fees, esp from China.

There was a huge upswing in the US following cutbacks during the 2008 GFC. That now sparks concerns re dependence.

pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017…

@cosmicpinot @ericfish85 But when looking at whether China might seek to use this sort of dependence as a source of leverage, this work by @limdarrenj and @VictorAFerguson is important in looking at when interdependence is and is not asymmetrical and likely/not to be abused.

abc.net.au/news/2020-04-2…

@cosmicpinot @ericfish85 @limdarrenj @VictorAFerguson They do a really in depth look at how Chinese economic coercion worked re the South Korean tourism industry after THAAD. Interesting bc it is a SERVICE not a GOOD.

We will be cross applying these lessons to the #geoeducation space.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

@cosmicpinot @ericfish85 @limdarrenj @VictorAFerguson More generally, we will be thinking about how these moves and countermoves fit within a framework where China (as the tech challenger) does making/taking/transacting and the US (as the tech incumbent) does shielding/stifling/spurring.

lawfareblog.com/us-china-trade…

@cosmicpinot @ericfish85 @limdarrenj @VictorAFerguson We conclude "The question is not one of interdependence versus independence; rather, it is one of what degree of interdependence and independence is desirable and possible, in which areas and subject to which precautions."

We are seeing a spectrum (or spectrums) developing...

@cosmicpinot @ericfish85 @limdarrenj @VictorAFerguson And we need to be thinking what does this mean for third states, like Aus, that are watching this US-China clash but also affected by it. I've seen very little modelling on how 3rd states should be thinking about this. Most of the analysis so far is from within the G2 perspective