Thread by @RogerPielkeJr

Short thread on US hurricanes
In 1995 I was postdoc at @NCAR_Science working on extreme weather
One result of that work was this 1997 book, co-authored w/ @RogerAPielkeSr
Hurricanes: Their Nature and Impacts on Society
Free to read (it is still good!): pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/b-11.p…

In my classes and talks most people are surprised to learn that US (mainland) hurricane landfalls have actually decreased since 1900
Crazy, right?
journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.11…

There has also been a decrease in US (mainland) landfalls of the strongest hurricanes
We recently had the longest period on record of no such landfalls
2006-2019= 3 major US hurricanes
1915-1928= 13 (the most over 14 yrs since 1900)
journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.11…

If we ask how much damage each hurricane season would have caused in 2020, we get this answer
Because hurricane incidence has not increased, normalized damage hasn't increased either (as it should be if our methods are unbiased)
nature.com/articles/s4189…

Here is the data for normalized losses for the top 25 storms (had they occurred in 2020)
The worst? 1926 Miami = ~$250 billion
And that is not even the worst case we can imagine
nature.com/articles/s4189…

And for fun, I have tabulated US (mainland) hurricanes by US president
Over 2 terms GWB had 18, Obama had 4
Per year, Taft had 2.6, Trump not far behind at 2.3, Obama the lowest at 0.5. Thanks Obama.
journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.11…

In 2020, like a lot of things, US hurricanes (& NATL more generally) are deeply politicized as a symbol in the climate debate
But, so far, leading climate assessments have played things straight (even as some vocal climate scientists do not)
forbes.com/sites/rogerpie…

Here is the dedication to our 1997 book
Hurricane policies (and more generally around the world, tropical cyclone policies) are a remarkable success story of turning science (from meteorology to sociology & more) into societal benefit
Let's keep it up!
/END