1
This tweet of yesterday and the video embedded herein generated quite a bit of 'excitement' on my TL.
So I thought I'll just share some thoughts on the current snafu on the LAC here.
Still unstructured (as always!), but here goes ..
This tweet of yesterday and the video embedded herein generated quite a bit of 'excitement' on my TL.
So I thought I'll just share some thoughts on the current snafu on the LAC here.
Still unstructured (as always!), but here goes ..
2
But before moving ahead, let me offer a disclaimer.
I don't intend to go into the specifics of the alignment of LAC between the two countries. Enough has been said on that already, by doomsday walas as well as as 'All Is Well' walas.
But before moving ahead, let me offer a disclaimer.
I don't intend to go into the specifics of the alignment of LAC between the two countries. Enough has been said on that already, by doomsday walas as well as as 'All Is Well' walas.
3
Instead, what I intend to talk about is my thoughts on the fairly regular 'interaction' between the two militaries on the LAC, one aspect of which is depicted in the video above.
Do watch it before reading ahead in this thread, if not watched already.
Instead, what I intend to talk about is my thoughts on the fairly regular 'interaction' between the two militaries on the LAC, one aspect of which is depicted in the video above.
Do watch it before reading ahead in this thread, if not watched already.
4
That there is a dispute, is undeniable.
But then, what exactly is this dispute that we keep hearing about?
Well, to put it simply - the two sides do not agree as to where the LAC lies in a few sectors - thus what is called 'Claim Lines', wherein both sides feel the other ..
That there is a dispute, is undeniable.
But then, what exactly is this dispute that we keep hearing about?
Well, to put it simply - the two sides do not agree as to where the LAC lies in a few sectors - thus what is called 'Claim Lines', wherein both sides feel the other ..
5
.. side claims 'their' land.
THIS is the 'difference in perception' that the Raksha Mantri talked about some time ago.
With both sides keen to retain their claims, patrolling parties inevitably 'crossing over' into area claimed to be theirs by the opposing side.
.. side claims 'their' land.
THIS is the 'difference in perception' that the Raksha Mantri talked about some time ago.
With both sides keen to retain their claims, patrolling parties inevitably 'crossing over' into area claimed to be theirs by the opposing side.
6
Hence the occasional video / photograph of both sides engaged in shoving and jostling with the other. This is the 'normal' interaction between the IA and the PLA.
Sharing some photographs to put things in correct perspective before moving ahead with my observations.
Hence the occasional video / photograph of both sides engaged in shoving and jostling with the other. This is the 'normal' interaction between the IA and the PLA.
Sharing some photographs to put things in correct perspective before moving ahead with my observations.
7
Here is a video as well, for those interested.
Do watch it, atleast partially before moving ahead, since it has a bearing on what I intend writing further.
Here is a video as well, for those interested.
Do watch it, atleast partially before moving ahead, since it has a bearing on what I intend writing further.
8
Did you notice something?
Did you see a difference from the way the Indian Army 'interacts' with the Packies across the LoC?
The LAC too is disputed.
But we don't see such 👇 videos over there, right?
Did you notice something?
Did you see a difference from the way the Indian Army 'interacts' with the Packies across the LoC?
The LAC too is disputed.
But we don't see such 👇 videos over there, right?
9
Once again, refer back to the photos & the video of IA and PLA tweeted above.
Did you see that both sides are carrying their weapons?
Yet they choose NOT to use them and instead, keep them slung behind their backs?
BOTH sides follow this rule religiously.
Ever wondered why?
Once again, refer back to the photos & the video of IA and PLA tweeted above.
Did you see that both sides are carrying their weapons?
Yet they choose NOT to use them and instead, keep them slung behind their backs?
BOTH sides follow this rule religiously.
Ever wondered why?
10
Could it be due to an understanding - formal/informal - of NOT escalating things beyond a certain point?
I'd say YES.
Both sides are content to raise banners to inform the other of transgression into their claimed areas, which might of course, overlap with other side's claim.
Could it be due to an understanding - formal/informal - of NOT escalating things beyond a certain point?
I'd say YES.
Both sides are content to raise banners to inform the other of transgression into their claimed areas, which might of course, overlap with other side's claim.
11
This, folks, is the 'routine' interaction on the LAC.
Why I use the word 'routine'?
Because visuals from Doklam days and this current video posted in the first tweet of this thread indicate when things are NOT normal, they usually don't even carry weapons!
This, folks, is the 'routine' interaction on the LAC.
Why I use the word 'routine'?
Because visuals from Doklam days and this current video posted in the first tweet of this thread indicate when things are NOT normal, they usually don't even carry weapons!
12
Don't believe me?
Just watch the video in the first tweet of this thread and search for any weapon apart from sticks!
Or this video from Doklam days in which the only 'shooting' being done is from cameras. Once again, no rifles!
Don't believe me?
Just watch the video in the first tweet of this thread and search for any weapon apart from sticks!
Or this video from Doklam days in which the only 'shooting' being done is from cameras. Once again, no rifles!
13
The thing is, despite all sorts of provocations at higher echelons, the interaction on the ground between both armies is diligently kept below a level that might cause grievous bodily harm to the other side.
Bottomline: NONE seek escalation beyond a point.
Period.
The thing is, despite all sorts of provocations at higher echelons, the interaction on the ground between both armies is diligently kept below a level that might cause grievous bodily harm to the other side.
Bottomline: NONE seek escalation beyond a point.
Period.
14
So what about all those reports of a buildup of 'tens of thousands of troops' behind the area of the current standoff?
Well, didn't we hear the same during Doklam days?
Talking about Doklam, that standoff lasted nearly 2.5 months. This one is less than a month old!
So what about all those reports of a buildup of 'tens of thousands of troops' behind the area of the current standoff?
Well, didn't we hear the same during Doklam days?
Talking about Doklam, that standoff lasted nearly 2.5 months. This one is less than a month old!
15
Mind you, I am not saying this too will follow the same template as in Doklam.
Things might still go downhill.
It is about whether both govts can come up with a via media wherein a de-escalation can be 'sold' to domestic audiences as a 'victory' by both sides, real or imagined
Mind you, I am not saying this too will follow the same template as in Doklam.
Things might still go downhill.
It is about whether both govts can come up with a via media wherein a de-escalation can be 'sold' to domestic audiences as a 'victory' by both sides, real or imagined
16
It is HERE that the current issue lies.
Like it or not, the release of the video of the Chinese boy captured by the Indian troopers and the counter visuals of Indian troops in Chinese hands do not help the cause.
It is HERE that the current issue lies.
Like it or not, the release of the video of the Chinese boy captured by the Indian troopers and the counter visuals of Indian troops in Chinese hands do not help the cause.
17
Is it a cause for worry, though?
Of course, it is.
But not for the reasons we might think.
In a far-fetched scenario, in case guns do start booming, will such scenarios matter?
No Way!
Is it a cause for worry, though?
Of course, it is.
But not for the reasons we might think.
In a far-fetched scenario, in case guns do start booming, will such scenarios matter?
No Way!
18
Firstly, the last time that guns boomed on the LAC was in Sep-Oct 1967, i.e more than half a century ago.
And unsurprisingly, it was the Chinese that came second best!
For those who aren't aware, just google for Chola and Nathula clashes.
Firstly, the last time that guns boomed on the LAC was in Sep-Oct 1967, i.e more than half a century ago.
And unsurprisingly, it was the Chinese that came second best!
For those who aren't aware, just google for Chola and Nathula clashes.
19
Yet, we remain fixated with 1962, not realizing that there too, wherever he was led well, the Indian soldier stood like a ROCK in the path of Chinese hordes, making them pay dearly with their blood for every inch of territory they gained.
Yet, we remain fixated with 1962, not realizing that there too, wherever he was led well, the Indian soldier stood like a ROCK in the path of Chinese hordes, making them pay dearly with their blood for every inch of territory they gained.
20
But is it to say that this current standoff too will degenerate further into a shooting match?
Well, thus far, I've seen both sides exercise enough caution to indicate that they are not really interested in that.
(Once again,I'm NOT going to talk about merits/demerits of that)
But is it to say that this current standoff too will degenerate further into a shooting match?
Well, thus far, I've seen both sides exercise enough caution to indicate that they are not really interested in that.
(Once again,I'm NOT going to talk about merits/demerits of that)
21
However, at the end of the day, despite all the policies and agreements on that account, it remains the soldiers on the ground who are ultimately entrusted with ensuring that it remains thus.
However, at the end of the day, despite all the policies and agreements on that account, it remains the soldiers on the ground who are ultimately entrusted with ensuring that it remains thus.
22
What is to say that in heat of the moment, a Jat, or a Sikh, or a Gorkha, or any other soldier of the Indian Army, or for that matter, one from PLA will NOT end up losing his cool and end up initiating a chain of events that may potentially take the entire situation downhill?
What is to say that in heat of the moment, a Jat, or a Sikh, or a Gorkha, or any other soldier of the Indian Army, or for that matter, one from PLA will NOT end up losing his cool and end up initiating a chain of events that may potentially take the entire situation downhill?
23
Remember, the Chola clash of 1967 started not with a rifle being fired, but a Khukri being flashed, resulting in a Chinese sentry losing his arm to a Gorkha soldier of 7/11 Gorkha Rifles of the Indian Army.
As I've said before, human element plays a big role.
Remember, the Chola clash of 1967 started not with a rifle being fired, but a Khukri being flashed, resulting in a Chinese sentry losing his arm to a Gorkha soldier of 7/11 Gorkha Rifles of the Indian Army.
As I've said before, human element plays a big role.
24
It is here that the military leadership at lower levels assumes paramount importance.
To that end, hats off indeed to the immense maturity displayed by the Indian commander in the above vid in ensuring that the captured PLA boy doesn't come to more harm at the hands of his men
It is here that the military leadership at lower levels assumes paramount importance.
To that end, hats off indeed to the immense maturity displayed by the Indian commander in the above vid in ensuring that the captured PLA boy doesn't come to more harm at the hands of his men
25
But then, what exactly happens in case situation deteriorates and guns actually end up opening up again on the LAC after nearly 53 years?
First of all, all those beautifully pitched tents of the PLA will be up in smoke for sure!
Satellite imagery works both ways, no?
But then, what exactly happens in case situation deteriorates and guns actually end up opening up again on the LAC after nearly 53 years?
First of all, all those beautifully pitched tents of the PLA will be up in smoke for sure!
Satellite imagery works both ways, no?
26
In any case, this is very nearly the same area where TWO Param Vir Chakras were earned by the Indian Army in 1962 - by Maj Dhan Singh Thapa and Maj Shaitan Singh - extracting the lives of thousands of PLA troops.
In any case, this is very nearly the same area where TWO Param Vir Chakras were earned by the Indian Army in 1962 - by Maj Dhan Singh Thapa and Maj Shaitan Singh - extracting the lives of thousands of PLA troops.
27
Can today's PLA afford the same tactics?
Especially with One Child Policy and their recruitment base comprising entirely of 'Little Emperors' who are used to a cushy lifestyle?
How will they live in Ladakh without their oxygenated tents?
Do read this 👇 tfipost.com/2020/05/chines…
Can today's PLA afford the same tactics?
Especially with One Child Policy and their recruitment base comprising entirely of 'Little Emperors' who are used to a cushy lifestyle?
How will they live in Ladakh without their oxygenated tents?
Do read this 👇 tfipost.com/2020/05/chines…
28
But then, the above can surely be dismissed as a merely academic point of view and not truly reflect their fighting capabilities, right?
Well, of course!
But then, the above can surely be dismissed as a merely academic point of view and not truly reflect their fighting capabilities, right?
Well, of course!
29
But fact remains that the last PLA soldier to fire in anger at an enemy was way back in 1979 during their invasion of Vietnam where they went to 'teach Vietnam a lesson'.
But it was they who ended up getting 'taught'!
Here are some glimpses of that war
But fact remains that the last PLA soldier to fire in anger at an enemy was way back in 1979 during their invasion of Vietnam where they went to 'teach Vietnam a lesson'.
But it was they who ended up getting 'taught'!
Here are some glimpses of that war
30
The last time the PLA troops came fire, though, was as late as 2015 in South Sudan.
But then, instead of putting up a fight, they chose to RUN AWAY.
Wrote a short blog on that incident.
MUST READ!
cestmoizblog.com/2017/08/12/peo…
The last time the PLA troops came fire, though, was as late as 2015 in South Sudan.
But then, instead of putting up a fight, they chose to RUN AWAY.
Wrote a short blog on that incident.
MUST READ!
cestmoizblog.com/2017/08/12/peo…
31
As a follow up of that incident, I came across the account of the Indian company commander who pulled the PLA nuts out of fire.
He says that when he asked the PLA commander as to why they abandoned their post, the answer was 'Because it was not safe out there'
As a follow up of that incident, I came across the account of the Indian company commander who pulled the PLA nuts out of fire.
He says that when he asked the PLA commander as to why they abandoned their post, the answer was 'Because it was not safe out there'
32
Yes, this was a commander in a professional, well equipped army, talking about a situation created by a rag-tag militia in South Sudan!
Here is the blog that chronicles that exchange. A lot of interesting nuggets of info in that as well. cestmoizblog.com/2017/08/17/135/
Yes, this was a commander in a professional, well equipped army, talking about a situation created by a rag-tag militia in South Sudan!
Here is the blog that chronicles that exchange. A lot of interesting nuggets of info in that as well. cestmoizblog.com/2017/08/17/135/
33
But coming back to the current standoff, that we (as well as the Chinese) choose not to escalate and instead, seek diplomatic solutions, is not a reflection of the professionalism of the Indian Army but a well considered decision of the Govt of India.
But coming back to the current standoff, that we (as well as the Chinese) choose not to escalate and instead, seek diplomatic solutions, is not a reflection of the professionalism of the Indian Army but a well considered decision of the Govt of India.
34
And dare I say, the GOI doesn't choose this option from a position of weakness, but one of strength, with full confidence in its army to deliver on whatever directions it gets. Doklam is a very recent example of this.
And dare I say, the GOI doesn't choose this option from a position of weakness, but one of strength, with full confidence in its army to deliver on whatever directions it gets. Doklam is a very recent example of this.
35
Can't say the same for the PLA, though, given their performance in South Sudan.
Till such times the rifles are slung behind the back, no side has a relative advantage. But in a scenario when this no longer holds, the IA is well capable of 'surprising' the hubristic PLA.
Can't say the same for the PLA, though, given their performance in South Sudan.
Till such times the rifles are slung behind the back, no side has a relative advantage. But in a scenario when this no longer holds, the IA is well capable of 'surprising' the hubristic PLA.
36
An India-China showdown is inevitable, given that both are jostling for the same geopolitical space.
But that is not to say that it will happen right now!
It will happen when it happens.
cestmoizblog.com/2017/09/15/chi…
An India-China showdown is inevitable, given that both are jostling for the same geopolitical space.
But that is not to say that it will happen right now!
It will happen when it happens.
cestmoizblog.com/2017/09/15/chi…
37
As far as the current standoff goes, I'll just leave this piece here.
Make your own conclusions.
theprint.in/opinion/no-chi…
As far as the current standoff goes, I'll just leave this piece here.
Make your own conclusions.
theprint.in/opinion/no-chi…
38
Oh, and about the 'little emperors' that make up the PLA soldiers, here is another piece that came first came to my notice some years ago.
Worth a read!
metro.co.uk/2017/08/24/chi…
Oh, and about the 'little emperors' that make up the PLA soldiers, here is another piece that came first came to my notice some years ago.
Worth a read!
metro.co.uk/2017/08/24/chi…
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To conclude, those predicting doomsday for the Motherland would be well advised to take a swig of their favourite alcoholic beverage in order to calm their nerves.
An escalation may or may not happen, but even if it does, trust your army to deliver!
:Fin:
To conclude, those predicting doomsday for the Motherland would be well advised to take a swig of their favourite alcoholic beverage in order to calm their nerves.
An escalation may or may not happen, but even if it does, trust your army to deliver!
:Fin:
40
Adding this to the thread.
Aptly depicts the 'normal'; far from the 'sensational' visuals that otherwise go viral!
Adding this to the thread.
Aptly depicts the 'normal'; far from the 'sensational' visuals that otherwise go viral!
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In the end, let me share some thoughts that I tweeted when the Doklam crisis was still 'hot'.
Similarities with the current one might still emerge.
May have a look.
In the end, let me share some thoughts that I tweeted when the Doklam crisis was still 'hot'.
Similarities with the current one might still emerge.
May have a look.
