[new thread] *Democracy, Capacity & Coercion in Pandemic Response—COVID 19 in Comparative Political Perspective* out today in @JHPPL where @Renu_Singh_ & I look at three big questions that #COVID19 is raising for comparative health politics and policy...
read.dukeupress.edu/jhppl/article/…
read.dukeupress.edu/jhppl/article/…
1. What does "capacity" to respond to pandemics mean? The highest scoring 30 countries on the #GlobalHealthSecurity Index have performed very differently--they turn out to have very *different* actual capacity to respond to COVID... This figure shows huge variation👇
Why??
Why??
1a.The #GHSInex and broader measures of "state capacity" align closely--so what are they actually measuring? A similar group of wealthy states in the global North are often judged to have similar capacity...
1b. Can we instead think about *political capacity* for pandemic response? Political capacity might help explain diff between US, UK, SKorea, etc. Heavier emphasis on recent experience with disease outbreaks, public health norms, political coalitions and cleavages, etc....
2. Democracy: Decades of work on democracy impact on health, measures, mechanisms, leans toward democratic benefit. #COVID19: hand-wringing over the meaning of success in China, Singapore vs. failure in US, UK. Does this mean there's an authoritarian advantage in pandemics?
2a. We try to problematize this debate: Pandemics are unique, acute crises, but spanning the globe. Response necessarily brings in public health capacity + transparent information + foreign policy and diplomacy + resources & funding. So question is: what *kind* of democracy?
2b. when writing, wish we'd had this great piece by @joelselway who brings out some great data on exactly this point--suggests maybe proportional representation explains some of why certain democracies have failed dramatically washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/…
2c. What else might be at work? Does *direction* of democratic governance matter--i.e. shorthand for populism + weakening democratic institutions in the US & UK can be contrasted with emerging strength of progressive democratic governance in SK? How best to think about Thailand?
3. Finally: after decades of work in public health law suggesting coercive laws and measures should be avoided wherever possible, global public health officials (and publics) are calling for strong, coercive measures. Has this flipped the script on what *good* is?
3a. Should we think about move to enact "lockdowns" as idiosyncratic and isolated responses to the unprecedented threat of a novel, deadly, fast-spreading virus in this era of globalized interconnectedness? Maybe, but...
3b. this represents a massive expansion of state power in many countries, and power orders are unlikely to just snap back into place... we might find that:
3b. Maybe #COVID19 lockdowns work. Is stricter better? Maybe instead coercion works initially but reduces trust, undermining the response in the medium term given months of COVID ahead. Or maybe long lockdowns will trigger serious backlash... degrees of each based on context?
👆along w ours, read #COVID19 @JHPPL edited by @OberlanderUNC w/such speed & quality [UNGATED: read.dukeupress.edu/jhppl/pages/co…]
Excellent pieces @haroldpollack @PM_Alberti @paulalantz @DrCHWilkins @zinzinator @nhuberfeld1 @dklinejones @sarahgollust @efranklinfowler @juliaflynch @busbyj2
Excellent pieces @haroldpollack @PM_Alberti @paulalantz @DrCHWilkins @zinzinator @nhuberfeld1 @dklinejones @sarahgollust @efranklinfowler @juliaflynch @busbyj2
3c. a) lockdowns work and we need to reconsider our priors; b) lockdowns work at first but undermine trust and response in a medium term of months-long COVID outbreak; c) lockdowns back fire and result in resistance to public health measures. Likely combo of 3 in diff contexts.
fin: ultimately we're not drawing conclusions here, but raise key questions and, with some early evidence, arguing against over-simplistic conclusions being drawn by both observers or policymakers in #COVID19 pandemic. eager to hear your thoughts twitter.
read.dukeupress.edu/jhppl/article-…
read.dukeupress.edu/jhppl/article-…
