Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
@jnordvig
Jun 2, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
As I mentioned yesterday, there is something new happening in the Eurozone, and assets there are now leading on many metrics

Eurostoxx are now showing accelerating outperformance vs the SPX (it was not a mirage...) Image
After an incredibly weak flow picture for a long time, there is now some infant evidence via @ExanteData that US investors are starting to buy international stocks, including European stocks.

(the last bar is just Monday's data so far, so that should grow during the week) Image
The equity performance chart was in local currency terms, hence the currency effect should be added on top, and it is significant in many crosses (with the Euro certainly not the leading one)

Here shown in 1month terms (for G10 currencies) Image
There are many things going on: 1) #EU Recovery Fund hopes, 2) Successful #Reopening in Europe and various parts of AsiaPac, 3) Cheaper valuation (than the US), 4) Questions about US preemptive reopening + #riots. 5) End of USD hoarding (from Mar-Apr). I will leave it at that

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Jens Nordvig

Jens Nordvig Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jnordvig

Jens Nordvig Profile picture
Apr 21
Last week, we hosted a call for @ExanteData clients on the ongoing asset allocation shift and (very negative) implications for the dollar.

Here I am just posting the opening slides from the call, that illustrates that there is nothing normal about the current regime...

short THREAD
It is highly unusual for the bond market to sell off at the same time as equities are tanking and short-end yields are going down. But this is what we have seen in April, and it is getting worse this week... Image
It is highly unusual for real yields to be moving notably higher (to a > 20 year high, except Oct 2008) when growth expectations are being revised notably down (recession fears etc) Image
Read 6 tweets
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
Mar 4
Here are some basic observations about why the current US tariff policy plans are probably the absolute worst case scenario for US growth...

The cumulative tax effects are very large, and it is a complex system, hard to administer and entailing costly uncertainty.

THREAD Image
First,

Hitting the most integrated cross-border supply chains, at the core of US manufacturing, will entail a severe hit too US growth.

The tax effect of USMCA tariffs alone are > $200bn

(USCMA tariffs = ‘own goal’) Image
Second,

We are heading down a path of a complex set of individual tariffs, still ripe for circumvention (as not global). We think 8-10 different tariff pushes are now likely.

Here is a list of key proposals, some over-lapping (not including the agricultural-tariffs, that were added to the list yesterday)Image
Read 8 tweets
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
Feb 21, 2024
Nvidia $NVDA is hardly a cheap stock. But you often hear the comparison to Cisco $CSCO in the bubble. Is that fair?dot.com
Here are the (most) basic Cisco stats from 1997-2002.

The stock peaked in 2002 at 23 x Revenue
- margin was 64%
- rev. growth was 55% Image
Nvidia is trading at 27 x Revenue (more expensive than Cisco at the peak)

BUT
- margin is at 73%
- rev growth is at 126% Image
Read 5 tweets
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
Dec 16, 2023
For those thinking that the inflation experiences in the 1970s and the 1980s are instructive to this cycle...

Just a few background charts...

(mini-THREAD I guess)
The US economy is way more open. Hence, a lot of price dynamics are a function of the global economy, not just what is happening at home

imports to GDP were just 5% in the early 1970s, for example. Now >15% of GDP... Image
Unions played a much bigger role in the economy (>20% in the 1970s vs <10% now), and wage growth will therefore not be determined in the same way Image
Read 7 tweets
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
Dec 12, 2023
Everybody knows the details of US used car prices, the technicalities of the rent calculation, and even the oddities around obscure CPI components such as medical services...

but perhaps it is better to look at the big picture (global trends and China)...

- just a few of charts Image
The trend in global core inflation is almost back to normal (chart above)

And when you look at China, you think; should we not worry about deflation?

Headline CPI is as negative as in the covid shock, and almost as negative as in the CFC shock Image
And when you look at the latest China data, things are getting worse (assuming that you do not like deflation)

Despite the re-opening in 2023, the Chinese economy is observing greater deflationary effects, with momentum getting incrementally more severe in recent months. Image
Read 5 tweets
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
Nov 29, 2023
The higher for longer narrative is looking increasingly stale

(a few big picture charts)
First, the global trend in core inflation momentum is very clear. The worst is certainly behind us... Image
Second, while some economies have shown greater resiliency to higher rates than expected, global credit is very weak, especially vs 2022, but also vs pre-covid trend. Image
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(