As I mentioned yesterday, there is something new happening in the Eurozone, and assets there are now leading on many metrics
Eurostoxx are now showing accelerating outperformance vs the SPX (it was not a mirage...)
After an incredibly weak flow picture for a long time, there is now some infant evidence via @ExanteData that US investors are starting to buy international stocks, including European stocks.
(the last bar is just Monday's data so far, so that should grow during the week)
The equity performance chart was in local currency terms, hence the currency effect should be added on top, and it is significant in many crosses (with the Euro certainly not the leading one)
Here shown in 1month terms (for G10 currencies)
There are many things going on: 1) #EU Recovery Fund hopes, 2) Successful #Reopening in Europe and various parts of AsiaPac, 3) Cheaper valuation (than the US), 4) Questions about US preemptive reopening + #riots. 5) End of USD hoarding (from Mar-Apr). I will leave it at that
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Here are some basic observations about why the current US tariff policy plans are probably the absolute worst case scenario for US growth...
The cumulative tax effects are very large, and it is a complex system, hard to administer and entailing costly uncertainty.
THREAD
First,
Hitting the most integrated cross-border supply chains, at the core of US manufacturing, will entail a severe hit too US growth.
The tax effect of USMCA tariffs alone are > $200bn
(USCMA tariffs = ‘own goal’)
Second,
We are heading down a path of a complex set of individual tariffs, still ripe for circumvention (as not global). We think 8-10 different tariff pushes are now likely.
Here is a list of key proposals, some over-lapping (not including the agricultural-tariffs, that were added to the list yesterday)
Everybody knows the details of US used car prices, the technicalities of the rent calculation, and even the oddities around obscure CPI components such as medical services...
but perhaps it is better to look at the big picture (global trends and China)...
- just a few of charts
The trend in global core inflation is almost back to normal (chart above)
And when you look at China, you think; should we not worry about deflation?
Headline CPI is as negative as in the covid shock, and almost as negative as in the CFC shock
And when you look at the latest China data, things are getting worse (assuming that you do not like deflation)
Despite the re-opening in 2023, the Chinese economy is observing greater deflationary effects, with momentum getting incrementally more severe in recent months.
The higher for longer narrative is looking increasingly stale
(a few big picture charts)
First, the global trend in core inflation momentum is very clear. The worst is certainly behind us...
Second, while some economies have shown greater resiliency to higher rates than expected, global credit is very weak, especially vs 2022, but also vs pre-covid trend.