Jens Nordvig Profile picture
Jun 2, 2020 4 tweets 3 min read Read on X
As I mentioned yesterday, there is something new happening in the Eurozone, and assets there are now leading on many metrics

Eurostoxx are now showing accelerating outperformance vs the SPX (it was not a mirage...) Image
After an incredibly weak flow picture for a long time, there is now some infant evidence via @ExanteData that US investors are starting to buy international stocks, including European stocks.

(the last bar is just Monday's data so far, so that should grow during the week) Image
The equity performance chart was in local currency terms, hence the currency effect should be added on top, and it is significant in many crosses (with the Euro certainly not the leading one)

Here shown in 1month terms (for G10 currencies) Image
There are many things going on: 1) #EU Recovery Fund hopes, 2) Successful #Reopening in Europe and various parts of AsiaPac, 3) Cheaper valuation (than the US), 4) Questions about US preemptive reopening + #riots. 5) End of USD hoarding (from Mar-Apr). I will leave it at that

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More from @jnordvig

Mar 4
Here are some basic observations about why the current US tariff policy plans are probably the absolute worst case scenario for US growth...

The cumulative tax effects are very large, and it is a complex system, hard to administer and entailing costly uncertainty.

THREAD Image
First,

Hitting the most integrated cross-border supply chains, at the core of US manufacturing, will entail a severe hit too US growth.

The tax effect of USMCA tariffs alone are > $200bn

(USCMA tariffs = ‘own goal’) Image
Second,

We are heading down a path of a complex set of individual tariffs, still ripe for circumvention (as not global). We think 8-10 different tariff pushes are now likely.

Here is a list of key proposals, some over-lapping (not including the agricultural-tariffs, that were added to the list yesterday)Image
Read 8 tweets
Feb 21, 2024
Nvidia $NVDA is hardly a cheap stock. But you often hear the comparison to Cisco $CSCO in the bubble. Is that fair?dot.com
Here are the (most) basic Cisco stats from 1997-2002.

The stock peaked in 2002 at 23 x Revenue
- margin was 64%
- rev. growth was 55% Image
Nvidia is trading at 27 x Revenue (more expensive than Cisco at the peak)

BUT
- margin is at 73%
- rev growth is at 126% Image
Read 5 tweets
Dec 16, 2023
For those thinking that the inflation experiences in the 1970s and the 1980s are instructive to this cycle...

Just a few background charts...

(mini-THREAD I guess)
The US economy is way more open. Hence, a lot of price dynamics are a function of the global economy, not just what is happening at home

imports to GDP were just 5% in the early 1970s, for example. Now >15% of GDP... Image
Unions played a much bigger role in the economy (>20% in the 1970s vs <10% now), and wage growth will therefore not be determined in the same way Image
Read 7 tweets
Dec 12, 2023
Everybody knows the details of US used car prices, the technicalities of the rent calculation, and even the oddities around obscure CPI components such as medical services...

but perhaps it is better to look at the big picture (global trends and China)...

- just a few of charts Image
The trend in global core inflation is almost back to normal (chart above)

And when you look at China, you think; should we not worry about deflation?

Headline CPI is as negative as in the covid shock, and almost as negative as in the CFC shock Image
And when you look at the latest China data, things are getting worse (assuming that you do not like deflation)

Despite the re-opening in 2023, the Chinese economy is observing greater deflationary effects, with momentum getting incrementally more severe in recent months. Image
Read 5 tweets
Nov 29, 2023
The higher for longer narrative is looking increasingly stale

(a few big picture charts)
First, the global trend in core inflation momentum is very clear. The worst is certainly behind us... Image
Second, while some economies have shown greater resiliency to higher rates than expected, global credit is very weak, especially vs 2022, but also vs pre-covid trend. Image
Read 9 tweets
Nov 26, 2023
I spoke this weekend at the Euro conference hosted by @AlbertoBagnai in Pescara, Italy (along with @EuroBriefing @borghi_claudio and others)

A few key points from my speech... Image
The Euro-crisis climaxed about 10-years ago, and the challenges for the Eurozone have been hotly debated since Image
Since the Euro-crisis (2010-2013) there have been steps towards more integration on a number of fronts:

- NextGenerationEU has facilitated temporary fiscal transfers.
- More active CB policy (QE, PEPP etc) entailed more support for peripheral bonds Image
Read 12 tweets

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