Thank you for writing about this, @anders_aslund. What is happening in Ukraine with fertilizers is an outrage and we call on @Trade_EU @PhilHoganEU @WeyandSabine to intervene at the highest levels as soon as possible while window of opportunity to impact the proceeding exists!
First point, the dominant local producer of fertilizers - Ostchem Group owned by Firtash - is a MONOPOLIST. This has been unequivocally established by Ukrainian AntiMonopoly Committee that decided that in 2017, Ostchem was a monopolist on the Ukrainian fertilizer market. /1
The key element of that decision finding Ostchem a monopolist was an event from 2017, when Ostchem collected pre-payments from Ukrainian farmers for future deliveries, yet then STOPPED PRODUCTION FOR 4 MONTHS. /2
This led to a panic on the Ukrainian market. Farmers turned to imports leading to an unprecedented spike in imports. Yet as clearly found by the AntiMonopoly Committee, these events were 100% caused by Ostchem's monopolistic behavior. /3
Second proof of monopolist behavior by Ostchem - internal trading of gas. Ostchem imported gas, then traded that gas internally between its own subsidiaries, finally selling that gas to itself to produce fertilizers. Profit was made on internal gas trading, not on fertilizers. /4
This led to very high cost of production of fertilizers, because gas price was artificially inflated. So the production of fertilizers suffered, bz Firtash was in the business of gas, not fertilizers. We know that Firtash has always been primarily a gas trader. /5
Removal of Russian fertilizers due to sanctions, and unreliable local producer effectively made Ukrainian farmers turn to EU as the reliable source of fertilizers. Lithuania, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania all began supplying Ukraine with high-quality fertilizers. /6
In a matter of few years, the EU became the NUMBER ONE supplier of fertilizers to Ukraine, replacing Russia. What a massive success of the EU-Ukraine DCFTA! @PhilHoganEU @jwojc @Trade_EU @EUAgri /7
Look at what happened on the nitrogen fertilizer market within the last 4 years! A massive success of EU-Ukraine friendship and trade flows. EU fertilizer producers supplying Ukrainian farmers in nitrogen fertilizers. /8 
Look at what happened on the complex (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium - NPK) fertilizer market within the last 4 years! Again, massive success of EU exporters supplying Ukrainian farmers. EU became #1 supplier of NPK fertilizers as well. /9
As you can tell, imports of fertilizers did not really increase overall. The only thing that happened is that EU replaced Russia. This is what these events in Ukraine are all about: removing EU from a market that has always been reserved for Russian exporters. /10
Another twist: the AntiMonopoly Committee - as a consequence of its finding of abuse of monopolistic position by Ostchem - ordered Firtash to divest some of his assets. But to whom can Firtash sell ? /11
The main other oligarch involved in fertilizers that could potentially buy from Firtash is Kolomoisky. Yes, the same Kolomoisky that is reportedly so close to President Zelensky. /12
It will therefore not be a major surprise then that Ukraine initiated two safeguard proceedings - into nitrogen and complex fertilizers - on the last day (!!!!) of old government immediately before Zelensky's new Prime Minister took office. /13
The proceedings were initiated on August 29, 2019. The last day of Prime Minister Groysman, Poroshenko's last Prime Minister, right before Zelensky's new PM Honcharuk took office. /14
Today the Ministry is proposing introducing quotas, that will (1) cement Ostchem's monopoly of the domestic fertilizer market, and (2) remove EU exporters from the market. Who will gain? Firtash, Kolomoisky and Russian exporters that will stop EU expansion on this market. /15
None of the WTO requirements for introducting SG measures have been met: 1) no sudden, sharp, recent and significant increase in imports, 2) no serious injury to the domestic producer, 3) no causation, and 4) no unforseeable circumstances that led to this situation. /16
This after EU spent billions EUR on macrofinancial assistance to Ukraine (just two weeks ago, another 1.2 bln was released to fight consequences of COVID) and when the EU is fighting to secure Ukraine's gas supplies and transit. So yes, it is a scandal of epic proportions. 17/17
In response to some questions - here is the reference to the Antimonopoly Committee's decision.
