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@KeirGiles 1/ I am going to go out on a limb and raise one possibility rarely discussed. Marcon is intelligent, we cannot deny him that. He has also been rather tough on Russia. So I think we need to consider that his plan may be more elaborate than just a dumb "reset".
@KeirGiles 2/ One option is opportunistic attempt to drum up support for FR interests in Russia or abroad. He knows reset won't work, but thinks he can score points (commercial or others) by saying nice things on Russia. Some contracts for French companies? Maybe minor concession elsewhere?
@KeirGiles 3/ so this option would entail Macron knowing very well nothing good will come out of Russia on major issues (Ukraine, Syria, etc), but hoping he can get some (smaller) deliverables for France from RU. That would be a good trade for him.
@KeirGiles 4/ Another option deserving (some) consideration: knowing Russia won't deliver anything meaningful, playing their bluff. Going down route that Russia wants EU to take, just to show that it's a dead end. To remove some bullshit arguments that Russians have been & will be making.
@KeirGiles 5/ One more: this isn't abt Russia at all. It's abt the US. Align France w/ Trump on Russia. Improve climate w/ US to ensure Trump doesn't do sth stupid in last year of his presidency, like tax French wines or impose tariffs on cars. Try to make it to Nov. 2020 w/ EU-US trade war
@KeirGiles 6/ Just to be clear: I am not saying this is what Macron is doing. I don't know. But he is an intelligent guy and a plain "reset" is simply too stupid for someone of his caliber to attempt. So there must be more that he is not telling us. /END
