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I numeri di #ImmuniApp

% popolazione con smartphone=70%(0.7)

% downloads ottimisiticamente= 66%(0.66)

% popolazione coperta da app =0.7x0.66 =0.462(46.2%)

% positivi su popolazione(x eccesso) =0.1(10%)

% di popolazione che verrà interessata dalla probabilità che un "sano" e un "positivo", entrambi con l'app installata, forniscano un segnale "valido":

(0.462-10%) x (0.462*0.1) =0.4158*0.0462=0.01921=1.921%

Ovvero: 60000000*0.01921=1,152,597.6 persone.

Controllate x favore.
Nel caso improbabile i conti fossero esatti qualcuno dovrebbe spiegarmi a cosa serve, oggi, questa applicazione quando i numeri reali sono probabilmente meno della metà di quelli che ho usato.

Saluti, controllate che oggi sono rinco (ieri sera ho fatto circus)
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