Jim Stanford Profile picture
Jun 4, 2020 4 tweets 3 min read Read on X
@bankofcanada said yesterday that things could be worse. As I tell @jpress of @CdnPressNews, that doesn't mean they're *good*: timescolonist.com/bank-of-canada…. This is still an economic & employment emergency, & we'll need all policy engines firing for years to reconstruct. #cdnecon ...2
One important nugget in yesterday's report: #BoC confirmed bond buying will continue until "recovery is well underway." I think that will be 3 yrs at least. This is crucial to both stabilizing financial markets and facilitating the fiscal injections that are so critical now ...3
Speaking of bond-buying, check out @LindaMcQuaig's very sharp @TorontoStar column on the precedent set by the Bank's purchases of govt debt, and why that precedent should be extended: thestar.com/opinion/contri…. "The Genie is out of the bottle!"🧞...4
I argue here for @ccpa that the Bank's bond-buying should be broadened and extended: behindthenumbers.ca/2020/04/08/can…. A critical area now is cities, which are in a real fiscal vise: if they respond by slashing jobs & services (as many are now doing) the recession will be longer & deeper.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Jim Stanford

Jim Stanford Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @JimboStanford

May 6
Just in time for Prime Minister Carney's meeting with Donald Trump, I have analyzed new U.S. Census Bureau data on bilateral Canada-U.S. trade (now including full-year 2024 results). Full analysis here: . #cdnecon #cdnpoli /2progressive-economics.ca/2025/05/latest…
The U.S. bilateral trade deficit with Canada shrank 12% in 2024, to just $35.7b (U.S.). That's a small fraction of the inflated numbers ("$100 billion, $200 billion, $300 billion") that Trump just makes up. /3 Image
Relative to U.S. GDP, which has been growing quickly in nominal terms, that bilateral deficit has been halved since 2022 (largely due to lower oil prices), falling to 0.12% in 2024. Even the U.S. global deficit is a much smaller share of GDP (3.1% in 2024) than in the 2000s. /4 Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 22
Certain partisans have been citing Canada's performance on per capita GDP as evidence of a supposed 'lost decade' and economic mismanagement. In @IRPP Policy Options, I deconstruct this arbitrary and misleading statistic, in two parts. #cdnecon #cdnpoli /2
Part I: The numerator of 🇨🇦's per capita GDP has done reasonably well: 2nd best GDP growth in the G7 over the last decade. The denominator (population) has grown unusually fast (esp. since 2021), and that is what has suppressed the value of the ratio. /3policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/apri…
I also show flaws in the methodology of calculating per capita GDP. The world leaders in per capita GDP are all tax havens: that's phony. In Canada, Newfoundland & Labrador has above-avg per capita GDP (hence no equalization) despite lower personal incomes. A flawed measure! /4
Read 6 tweets
Apr 20
Mr. Poilievre is resuscitating COVID-era arguments that inflation is a 'tax' (caused by Justin Trudeau's deficits and Tiff Macklem's ATM), and that he can 'cancel the tax' with federal spending cuts. Here are the top 4 reasons his economics are all wrong: #cdnecon #cdnpoli /2
1. International Comparisons: Post-COVID inflation was a global phenomenon, affecting almost all countries, with no correlation to deficits or government spending. Canada's inflation since 2019 has been relatively mild, well below the US and the OECD average. /3 Image
2. Timing: The federal deficit (huge during COVID lockdowns) was approaching balance (in national accounts terms, which is what matters for macroeconomics) by the time inflation accelerated in latter 2021 and 2022. Purported 'excess demand' from CERB benefits was long gone. /4 Image
Read 8 tweets
Apr 9
Crude oil prices are down $14/b (20%) in the last week. Apart from acute embarrassment for Danielle Smith (who called Trump's tariffs last week a "big win for Alberta & Canada"), there's an important lesson to be learned here about how crude oil futures markets work. #cdnecon /2 Image
This thread draws on analysis of oil futures markets from @futurework_cda's recent report, "Counting the Costs": . It computes the costs of the 2022 oil price spike: directly & indirectly it cost the average Canadian household $12,000 over 3 years. /3 falseprofits.ca/reportsImage
Prices for various specific crudes are set in relation to key benchmarks (mostly WTI & Brent) which are set on futures markets. Futures markets are financial markets. They don't trade in oil; they trade in contracts which are promises to deliver oil at some time in the future. /4
Read 16 tweets
Mar 27
Trump says any car “not made in America” gets a 25% tariff. That means EVERY car gets a tariff, cuz there’s no such thing as a “car made in America.” Only cars made in NORTH America. Every one of which has a lot of 🇨🇦🇺🇸 and 🇲🇽 content in it. #cdnecon /2
More Americans will be hurt by this than Canadians and Mexicans, cuz far more Americans are employed making North American cars… and their plants will all be screwed up by this, too. /3
Trump’s musings about pro-rating the tariff to reflect US parts content in imported vehicles, all by next Wednesday, are laughable. It would take years and enormous data & bureaucracy to set up a system like that. These clowns can’t even run a private group chat. /4
Read 4 tweets
Jan 13
“Who’s Subsidizing Whom?” I have written a new report for the Centre for Future Work @futurework_cda rebutting Trump’s arguments that the U.S. “subsidizes” Canada through its bilateral trade deficit: . #cdnecon #cdnpoli #canlab /2centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/upl…
First, that deficit is 1/5 as large as Trump claims ($40bUS not $200b), US trade is more balanced with us than other partners (they sell us 92c for every $ they buy) & a deficit isn’t a “subsidy” anyway. Their big surplus in services offsets much of the deficit in merchandise. /3 Image
In fact I identify 3 ways Canada-US trade diverges from normal practice. In effect, these are ways WE subsidize THEM:
1. Cheap secure oil, with access for US corp's to profit
2. Huge services imports--underreported, largely untaxed
3. Cheap credit to help finance their deficit /4 Image
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(