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Jim Stanford Profile picture
@JimboStanford
Jun 4, 2020 • 4 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
@bankofcanada said yesterday that things could be worse. As I tell @jpress of @CdnPressNews, that doesn't mean they're *good*: timescolonist.com/bank-of-canada…. This is still an economic & employment emergency, & we'll need all policy engines firing for years to reconstruct. #cdnecon ...2
One important nugget in yesterday's report: #BoC confirmed bond buying will continue until "recovery is well underway." I think that will be 3 yrs at least. This is crucial to both stabilizing financial markets and facilitating the fiscal injections that are so critical now ...3
Speaking of bond-buying, check out @LindaMcQuaig's very sharp @TorontoStar column on the precedent set by the Bank's purchases of govt debt, and why that precedent should be extended: thestar.com/opinion/contri…. "The Genie is out of the bottle!"🧞...4
I argue here for @ccpa that the Bank's bond-buying should be broadened and extended: behindthenumbers.ca/2020/04/08/can…. A critical area now is cities, which are in a real fiscal vise: if they respond by slashing jobs & services (as many are now doing) the recession will be longer & deeper.

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More from @JimboStanford

Jim Stanford Profile picture
Jan 13
“Who’s Subsidizing Whom?” I have written a new report for the Centre for Future Work @futurework_cda rebutting Trump’s arguments that the U.S. “subsidizes” Canada through its bilateral trade deficit: . #cdnecon #cdnpoli #canlab /2centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/upl…
First, that deficit is 1/5 as large as Trump claims ($40bUS not $200b), US trade is more balanced with us than other partners (they sell us 92c for every $ they buy) & a deficit isn’t a “subsidy” anyway. Their big surplus in services offsets much of the deficit in merchandise. /3 Image
In fact I identify 3 ways Canada-US trade diverges from normal practice. In effect, these are ways WE subsidize THEM:
1. Cheap secure oil, with access for US corp's to profit
2. Huge services imports--underreported, largely untaxed
3. Cheap credit to help finance their deficit /4 Image
Read 6 tweets
Jim Stanford Profile picture
Dec 19, 2024
Odd framing in @TorontoStar's cvg of the strike by (uncertified) Amazon workers in the US: . Of course their 'Cdn counterparts will not be joining': as @TheLawofWork has explained, non-certified workers in 🇨🇦 have no rights to protected concerted action. /2thestar.com/business/amazo…
Before anyone jumps to the conclusion that US workers therefore have more power, remember that once Canadian workers get a certification (as they have in Quebec, and are seeking in BC & elsewhere), they have far more power--including to get an arbitrated 1st contract. /3
And 🇨🇦's Rand formula then guarantees that the union (duly certified by a majority of workers, and via a contract then ratified by another majority of workers) can collect dues to stably fund the infrastructure of bargaining and representation. /4
Read 6 tweets
Jim Stanford Profile picture
Nov 25, 2024
We have released a new report today from @CntrFutureWork on the economic benefits that are already visible from 🇨🇦's new $10-a-day national early learning & child care (ELCC) program: #cdnpoli #cdnecon /2 centreforfuturework.ca/wp-content/upl…Image
Economists have long shown ELCC's many economic gains, via:
* Direct jobs in the ELCC sector
* Indirect / induced activity in upstream (supply chain) & downstream (consumer) industries
* Increased female labour supply
* Long-run gains from enhanced learning capacity in kids
/3
So it's gratifying to see this actually happening in real-time from the new national 🇨🇦 program:
* 40,000 new jobs in ELCC since 2019
* Better earnings and hours for ELCC workers
* 175,000 new female FTE labour supply (from higher participation & more full-time work)
/4 Image
Read 7 tweets
Jim Stanford Profile picture
Aug 20, 2024
OK sir, now let's do 2024.
Hourly wages (measured by the LFS) have grown twice as fast as prices (measured by the CPI) in the last 12 mos.
And by the way, there are several other serious problems with that original chart, in addition to it being 2 years out of date. #cdnecon /2
Image
A. You don't calculate change in real wage by subtracting the inflation rate from % wage growth. You must calculate an index (dividing wage by CPI) and measure how that changes.
B. The proper change in so-called 'pay' (more on this below) for 2022 was thus -4.0%, not -4.3% /3
C. The StatsCan report which Mr Poilievre cites explicitly states (in both text & charts) that the real income change was -4.0%, not -4.3%. (They can do the math right.) So the CPC chart-makers deliberately chose to use a higher (but false) number. They can't claim ignorance. /4
Read 12 tweets
Jim Stanford Profile picture
Jun 26, 2024
This is an own goal: Grocery prices did not surge 1.5% on June 25, they grew by 1.5% over the 12 months ending in May 2024. That's *lower* than the rate when Freeland announced the capital gains reform, and *below* the Bank of Canada's optimal 2% target for inflation. #cdnpoli /2
Can we thus credit Freeland's tax reform for *lowering* the rate of grocery inflation? Of course not: it's ridiculous to link the two. Blaming taxes, instead of Loblaws, Cargill, PepsiCo, oil companies, and climate change for high food prices, is world-class bait and switch. /3
Also, this reform does not increase taxes on families who *run* farms. It counts 1/6 more of large gains made by people who *sell* farms--and only *after* exhausting $1.25m lifetime exemption, special reserves to avg one-time gains, & special rules for intra-family transfer. /4
Read 5 tweets
Jim Stanford Profile picture
May 31, 2024
🇨🇦 consumers ride to the rescue!! 0.7% lift in real household consumption accounts for almost all the 0.4% rise in real GDP in 1Q24. That in turn was thanks mostly to a 1.5% rise in labour compensation, which grew 3x faster than consumer prices (consumption deflator). #cdnecon /2
Real wages are growing now at a decent pace, thanks to feisty unions, higher min wages, and workers demanding real wage repair. That has literally saved 🇨🇦 from a recession. This is the macroeconomic phenomenon of wage-led growth in action. #canlab /3
For those still losing sleep over wage-price spirals, don't worry: the GDP deflator fell slightly, and the consumption deflator (akin to CPI) rose just 0.5%. That's the slowest since COVID lockdowns, and pretty much equals the Bank of Canada's 2% annual target. /4
Read 6 tweets

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