Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #cdnecon

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Today's data: inflation! 📈…

CPI up 4.1% in August compared to last year. Highest since 2003. Excluding food/energy (which are highly volatile), prices up 3%. #cdnecon
Important to remember, though, that much of the higher inflation we've seen in recent months is in part due to drops during COVID and prices returning to trend today means above-average inflation since last year's levels are lower.

Here's an illustration of that.
Also important to remember that the central bank looks to several measures to understand inflation pressures. Here are three of their main metrics. One exceeds the target range, the two others still don't.
Read 7 tweets
Another strong jobs report confirms 🇨🇦's post-COVID rebound is continuing in the 3rd quarter. 90K new jobs, ¾ full-time. Official unemployment rate falls to 7.1%, lowest since COVID hit. Some evidence wage growth is accelerating: both hourly & weekly wages up 8% vs. Aug'19 ...2
Canada's employment recovery has been notably stronger than in the US, & the gap is growing. The claim that Canada's (stronger) emergency income supports somehow 'inhibit work' is false. The opposite is true: more consistent spending power has supported recovery. #Elxn44 #cdnecon
Here's a top-notch look at today's jobs numbers, in the context of bigger structural changes in 🇨🇦's labour market since COVID, by @don_pittis for @CBCNews:…. I argue low-wage businesses facing labour retention problems need to blame themselves, not govt.
Read 3 tweets
THREAD: I will be live-tweeting on labour & employment issues from the #Elxn44 English debate this evening. My impressions and fact checks will draw on recent @CntrFutureWork research into several of the topics that should come up tonight, including:
#cdnpoli #cdnecon
a) The economic & employment benefits of universal ECE:…. We found a national plan would create over 200K jobs in ECE itself, 80K in supply industries, and support up to 725K more FTE female labour force participants. A big boost to post-COVID recovery
b) The need for pro-active & supported transition planning for workers in fossil fuel industries:…. Pretending the transition isn't happening doesn't help the 50K who've already lost work, without support. Will the next govt implement a genuine plan?
Read 7 tweets
As someone who opposes Islamophobia, why should I vote strategically for a party that drafted a dog-whistle bill around it or that voted for it, over the NDP who didn't?

#Islamophobia #Elxn44 #cdnpoli
As someone who supports labour organizing, why would I vote strategically for a party who doesn't want to strengthen labour laws to support workers during strikes and lockouts, when the NDP does?

#canlab #strike #Elxn44
As someone who wants trade deals that are good for Canada and Canadian workers and don't contain harmful ISDs and respect our sovereignty, why would I vote strategically for any party who undermines that? #trade #cdnecon #Elxn2021
Read 17 tweets
1. I’ll say this again because it’s important. The Trudeau gov’t used deficit spending to steer 🇨🇦 through the worst global health & financial crisis in a century. It worked. The Harper/OToole #CPC couldn’t even manage a recession. #cdnecon #exln44 #NeverVoteConservative
2. 🇨🇦 was largely spared the worst of 2009 financial crisis due to previous Liberal gov’t banking regulations THAT #CPC LOBBIED AGAINST while in opposition. Had they succeeded, 🇨🇦 would’ve been hit much harder. Even so, Harper/OToole CPC couldn’t even manage the recession #Elxn44
3. The #CPC turned a $13B Liberal surplus into a $1.1B deficit BEFORE the recession. Then mismanagement the economy for nearly a decade after. Increasing poverty, starving 🇨🇦 of needed infrastructure investments & creating the worst trade deficits in Canadian history. #Elxn44
Read 13 tweets
When the #pandemic hit Canada in March 2020, the #Liberal Government of Canada opened up its $300 Billion Warchest to help Canadians fight it. #ForwardForEveryone #elxn44 #cdnpoli #IStandWithTrudeau 🇨🇦…
2 March 2021
🇨🇦Canada’s economic growth exceeded central bank and market expectations in the fourth quarter, overcoming a 2nd wave of Covid-19 cases that forced a fresh set of economic restrictions across the country. #cdnecon #elxn44 #ForwardForEveryone…
DBRS Inc confirmed the Government of Canada’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Ratings at AAA. DBRS Morningstar confirmed the Government of Canada’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Ratings at R-1. The trend on all ratings is Stable.…
Read 5 tweets
Excited to share this new journal article, I co-authored with Beiling Yan, that’s now published in Canadian Public Policy (by @utpjournals):…

#CdnEcon #Econtwitter
...Our goal in this paper was to analyze the potential to increase Canada’s exports and foreign direct investment abroad.

To do so, we constructed a unique administrative dataset @StatCan_eng with detailed information for millions of firms that operated in Canada from 2010-15.
...Our big research challenge: how do you identify “potential” exporters?

In the past, people surveyed firms to ask if they could become future exporters.

But you might worry that approach may be unreliable, if some firms say “yes”, even if they aren’t serious exporters.
Read 13 tweets
Almost there: EDC's Canadian Economy Recovery Tracker (CERT) is showing significant recent progress, driven by big improvements in COVID cases and loosening government restrictions… #CdnEcon Image
...Here are the COVID indicators, which are looking much, much better than in May. Image
...The Canadian price of oil continues to climb higher. Image
Read 5 tweets
Since #Harper is trending, let me take this opportunity to remind everyone that 🇨🇦 is still paying a heavy price for the decade of darkness from his #CPC.

#Conservatives self-servingly claim he’s long gone from office & it’s ridiculous to invoke him. Wrong. #cdnpoli
There are too many acts of corruption, malice, subterfuge, fraud & blind ideology to possibly list in a Twitter thread. So I’ll just bring up some highlights.

1st. Harper’s secret #FIPA with China, where he sold 🇨🇦 out & tied the hands of all future Cdn governments for 31 years.
Then there was Harper & #CPC selling 🇨🇦’s Wheat Board to a conglomerate controlled by the Saudis. #cdnpoli
Read 7 tweets
#EconTwitter #CEA2021 A short Live Tweet about this amazing panel on diversity and inclusion! Chaired by Thomas Lemieux (UBC), featuring @bdhuey (UofT, @CdnWomenEcon) Césaire Meh (BoC) @DiegoRestuccia (UofT) & Erin Strumpf (McGill). Thank you for organizing @CanEconomics!
Beth Dhuey is sharing personal experience and bad climate in economics.
Beth worked so hard on the climate survey. We have to move forward on the conversation on whether there is an issue. The climate survey shows that #cdnecon is not better than the US and there is a climate problem. More info on the survey here:…
Read 29 tweets
Investment in new oil & gas developments must stop immediately if the world is to hit net-zero by 2050, the International Energy Agency says in a huge new report today. This will of course have significant implications for Canada.… #ableg #cdnpoli #cdnecon
The IEA says hitting net-zero will mean pivoting the global economy from one powered by fossil fuels to one powered predominantly by renewable energy - and that will require "a total transformation of the energy systems that underpin” global economies. #cdnpoli #ableg #cdnecon
The narrative is often we'll have oil and gas for decades. The IEA disagrees, and says fossil fuels must fall from 4/5 of total energy supply today to just over 1/5 by 2050. I'll be interested to see government reaction to this.… #ableg #cdnpoli #cdnecon
Read 5 tweets
SanLing is closing up shop April 30, weeks after the AER suspended thousands of its operating licences. Orphan Well Association has applied to court to have a receiver assume control of SanLing inventory. B/g on the original charges:… #ableg #cdnecon #oott
Blair Reilly, AER enforcement director: “Our repeated attempts to bring SanLing into compliance have failed." Says it's "unfortunate" SanLing is ceasing operations, adds AER has "systems in place" for when companies can't meet responsibilities to clean up messes. #ableg #cdnecon
SanLing has apparently committed to an orderly transition of its assets to a receiver, which will in turn figure out where the assets go. Any remaining assets will land with the OWA. So... more for their books then. #ableg #cdnpoli #cdnecon
Read 4 tweets
My column today: Chrystia Freeland’s first budget goes just half way on the unconventional thinking that Canada needs… via @torontostar #cdnpoli #cdnecon
Here's @TondaMacC with our main budget story:… #cdnpoli #cdnecon
Here's @aballinga on how the budget pushes for a green recovery.… #cdnpoli #cdnecon
Read 6 tweets
Coming up, key highlights from todays’ federal budget as the government plans more than $101B in net new spending over the next three fiscal years (2021-2024), representing 4.2% of Canada’s GDP. #cdnpoli #cdnecon #budget2021
Budget 2021 and fiscal guardrails for new spending: “A comprehensive range of indicators show that the Canadian economy is still far from seeing a strong labour market with broadly shared benefits.” #cdnpoli #cdnecon #budget2021
Budget 2021: last year’s deficit now projected at $354.2B. For 2021-22: a projected $154.7B shortfall, but a warning that third-wave slowdowns could add $15B to deficit. #cdnpoli #cdnecon #budget2021
Read 44 tweets
Liberals' non-existent child care program; it's been around since 1984 .. "Shortly before the 1984 federal election, the Liberal government announced a Task Force on Child Care to be led by BC sociologist Katie Cooke." ..… #shameful #cdnpoli #childcare
"Most of the 1990s saw child care off the national political agenda after the Liberals' Red Book commitment to improve and expand child care at the national level was not fulfilled. After the Red Book, child care was off the national table until 2003" .. #childcare #cdnpoli
Stephen Harper put the final nail in the coffin of universal childcare .. "When the Liberals lost the election in January 2006, the Harper govt cancelled the bilateral agreements, making the Foundations Program another close-but-no-cigar for Canadian child care." .. #cdnpoli
Read 4 tweets
Some timeless tips on how to speed-read the federal budget…

(from the @IRPP achieves with @DavidDeault) #CdnEcon
Tip 1: To deconstruct the budget, first consider its construction:

Fundamentally, this is an exercise in assembling the evidence that best supports the government’s narrative, not necessarily to provide a comprehensive, objective view of the economy or the fiscal situation.
Tip 2: Prepare and reflect

There are lots of helpful resources to read in advance, like @PBO_DPB's pre-budget outlook…

And before the budget is released, reflect on your role and that of your organization. What’s your unique interest and perspective?
Read 15 tweets
Canada’s billionaires have grown richer during the pandemic, and calls for a wealth tax are getting louder… via @TorontoStar #Canada #WealthTax #inequality #cdnpoli #cdnecon
"A one-time wealth tax won’t enable govts to make sustainable investments in major public projects, such as fighting climate change. It’s only an annual wealth tax that can bend down that curve of rising billionaire wealth & raise revenues for the long term." .. #cdnpoli #cdnecon
"For the super rich during this pandemic, their wealth has been more like a propeller, lifting them to even greater heights. Since March 2020, Canada’s billionaires, of which there are about 4 dozen, have collectively increased their wealth by more than $78B." #WealthTax #cdnpoli
Read 4 tweets
So I've done a first read of the leaked CPC plan and have a few thoughts. #cdnecon #cdnpoli
1. Carbon pricing.

This will get all the attention today, and understandably given the CPC has made it their mantra to oppose carbon prices on households. So it's good they've relented, but the details matter here. And the details make this largely a gimmick...
Every $ spent will be returned to your personal account. Think of it like swiping a Carbon Miles™️ card at the pump. So all those critiques of the Lib rebates ("why have a tax if you just get your money back") are actually valid here! The catch is your spending is restricted...
Read 11 tweets
Today's data: jobs!! 🚨🥳… Employment up in March over 300k, mostly in Ontario. Here's all provinces. #cdnecon Image
Labour market recovery continuing in March, with the employment rate back above 60% -- though roughly 1.5-2 points below pre-COVID levels. Image
Important slack remains, though, especially among young women. Young men's employment rates have almost returned though young women remain roughly five points below pre-COVID levels. Image
Read 5 tweets
Have been crunching numbers on the relative size of the #CareEconomy in Canada, re paid work and contribution to GDP.
First, definition: health services (includes eldercare, home care, long-term care, social assistance) and education services (from childcare through PSE).

Why include education services? Because it develops the potential of our youngest citizens, labour market entrants, and those with jobs or displaced from jobs.
Pre-pandemic (2019) the Care Economy's % of GDP: 12.3% [health 7%, educ 5.3%]. Was 12.25% in 2020.

Real estate: 12.7% (13.7% in 2020)
Manufacturing: 10% (9.5% in 2020)
Construction: 7.2% (7.3%)
Finance/Insurance: 6.9% (7.6%)
Oil and Gas: 5.6% (5.6%)
Retail: 5% (5.2%)

Read 8 tweets
Exclusive: Alberta wants Ottawa to commit to $30b to spur construction of large-scale industrial carbon capture projects - key to blue hydrogen and helping lower emissions in the oil sector. By ⁦@KellyCryderman⁩ and me. #cdnpoli #ableg #cdnecon…
Aside from ⬇️ emissions, Nat Resources Minister O’Regan told CERAWeek CCUS is key for jobs for workers moving from oil & gas. “We think that lowering emissions by having them work on CCUS projects is going to be really important.” #ableg #cdnpoli #cdnecon…
The IEA also says carbon capture will be key to energy transition/lower emissions, and costs have fallen significantly. Bonus! Here’s a pic I took of Lindsey Graham visiting the Boundary Dam CCS plant in SK in 2015 as part of a bipartisan US group. #ableg #cdnpoli #skpoli
Read 4 tweets
Canada’s equalization program is one of the most important federal transfers — and one of the most misunderstood. To help, I'm *very* excited to share a new tool from @FONCanada: an 🚨interactive equalization simulator🚨… #cdnecon #cdnpoli🤓😎
This allows you to explore every aspect of the program, and much more.

Potentially most interesting is what's in store for next year. We include a *rough* projection for 2022/23. If this pans out, then every province except BC and AB may receive.
Why is that? Both NL and SK end up receiving because their resource revenues fall enough so that the "fiscal capacity cap" doesn't fully claw back their payment.
Read 10 tweets
Released today, @ExportDevCanada's Canadian Economic Recovery Tracker.

Things are starting to improve through mid-February, with COVID cases falling and oil prices rising… #CdnEcon
...In the past month, the number of weekly COVID-19 cases in Canada has declined as provinces adopted stronger restrictions.

These case count improvements, in turn, have just recently allowed some jurisdictions to start to slowly ease restrictions again.
Financial markets continued their strong performance in recent weeks, with equity indices reaching record highs across the world.

The Canadian price of oil has enjoyed a robust recovery thus far in 2021 and at US$47 a barrel, is now well above its pre-pandemic level.
Read 7 tweets
Labour force data by immigrant status. 1/4

Like total change in employment, the largest losses among jobs for immigrants are in Ontario and Quebec, but here we we see losses in Alberta as well. BC saw gains by comparison.

2/ Immigrants faced a deeper loss in employment and a slower recovery than persons born in Canada, but have recovered stronger than Canada-born persons since November.
3/ One of the fascinating stories here, raised by @mikalskuterud, how well recent immigrants have been fairing compared to longer-term immigrants. Immigrants here for ≤5 years have higher employment rates than pre-pandemic February.
Read 5 tweets

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