Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #cdnecon

Most recents (24)

Yet again, #NevrePoilievre demonstrates #PierrePoilievreIsAnEconomicIlliterate and a stunning example of #DunningKruger. It’s gobsmacking how Polievre imagines he knows more than economists because he consumes crypto propaganda & Bitcoin videos thestar.com/opinion/contri… #cdnpoli
This dangerously stupid & gullible quote from March/22 also demonstrates that Polievre is working on behalf of greedy corrupt billionaires who want to dismantle central banking & any & all checks on their power. Like Elon Musk. #CdnEcon #NeverVoteConservative #cdnpoli
If you haven’t already, I strongly urge everyone to read this ⬇️ masterpiece by @davetroy in @WashSpec. See link attached.
There’s also an audio version that you can listen to in 3 parts starting here: podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/dav…
#Fascism #CryptoIsAPonziScheme
Read 4 tweets
NEW: MLI research finds that young Canadians are pessimistic about their economic futures - and for good reason.

Check out our interactive data set based on polling and focus groups examining the views of Canadians aged 18-29. @awudrick #cdnpoli
macdonaldlaurier.ca/after-covid-yo…
<40% of young Canadians expect to enjoy a better standard of living than their parents. “This pessimism seems to be the result of a wider realization,” argue Blair Gibbs & @awudrick. “Making economic progress is harder for younger people than ever before.” macdonaldlaurier.ca/polling-86-per…
86% of young Canadians believe their parents' generation had an easier time purchasing a home or raising a family than they are having or will have. This has major implications for financial and family planning decisions of Canada's young people #cdnpoli macdonaldlaurier.ca/after-covid-yo… ImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
Inflation has many concerned, and it's a complex issue. So I'm happy to share some results of work with my colleague, Prof. Sonja Chen: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… Not yet peer-reviewed, but there's some interesting results I'll preview here. 🧵 #cdnecon #cdnpoli
First, it's important to appreciate that rising inflation is accounted for by a few specific items. Had energy and shelter prices, for example, not increased then overall inflation would have been 4.1% in July rather than 7.8%.
More interesting is the spillover effect of energy prices on other goods and services. We find roughly one-quarter of items move up and down strongly with oil prices. And those items account for 60% of the non-energy inflation we're seeing.
Read 15 tweets
#YouAskedUs if we printed cash to finance the federal gov’t.

We didn't.

👇 Keep reading to learn how we supported the economy from the shock of the pandemic. #CdnEcon #AskTheBoC

1/6
The pandemic has been a crisis like no other.

As a result, we took various measures, like buying bonds, to support and ensure a strong and stable #economy.

2/6
We bought existing gov't bonds from banks on the open market.

Why?

This helped unblock frozen markets at the start of the #pandemic.

It let households, companies and governments access funding when they really needed it.

3/6
Read 6 tweets
We keep talking about inflation becoming “entrenched.” What does that mean?

The more people believe inflation will continue to increase and the longer they believe it will last, the more likely it is to remain high.

👇 Keep reading to learn more. #CdnEcon #AskTheBoC

1/7
Prices tend to go up⬆ when the demand for goods and services is more than the #economy can supply.

Prices tend to go down⬇ when the #economy produces more goods and services than people want or need.

2/7
If people believe inflation will remain low, short-term jumps in prices are not a huge deal.

3/7
Read 7 tweets
While I have some issues w/ @TorontoStar, this investigation into price gouging by 🇨🇦’s big supermarket chains, thestar.com/business/2022/… is worth a subscription. If the Star keeps doing valuable investigations like this, they may win back some lost subscribers. #InflationScam
It’s behind a paywall so here are some highlights. #InflationScam #Loblaws #Metro #Sobeys #cdnecon #cdnpoli ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
Not one word. Not one about the real problem. It’s not wages. It’s soaring profits that are the problem. Come on: workers wages have not kept pace and the one chance to catch up and central bankers coaching biz not to raise wages too much! #cdnpoli cbc.ca/news/business/…
In June, @CntrFutureWork warned this would happen. That workers would pay the price for inflation padding corporate profits: centreforfuturework.ca/2022/06/01/bus… And here we are! /2
Canada's central banker:

"As a business, don't plan on the current rate of inflation staying. Don't build that into longer-term contracts. Don't build that into wage contracts. It is going to take some time, but you can be confident that inflation will come down." /3
Read 7 tweets
Today's high inflation is regressive. This point has been made by many, but I thought some numbers might help. 🧵 #cdnecon
I estimate the effect of price increases on household disposable incomes here 👇. The high rates for May (reported today) are like a nearly 10 percent reduction in the disposable incomes of the lowest income families. Let that sink in a moment.
This is not because lower-income households buy more items w/ big price increases. The reverse is true (owned accommodation, for example).

Here's a set of estimates of the inflation rate for different types of households based only on differences in products purchased.
Read 13 tweets
Inflation pressures are broad-based, to be absolutely clear, but this is worth noting: if shelter and energy prices remained flat since last year, I estimate headline inflation would have been 3.2% in May instead of 7.7%. #cdnecon
This is not to deny the financial pressures that price increases create. But it shows that the biggest pressures are narrowly concentrated. This may matter for policy makers trying to figure out where to direct efforts and to understand what is going on.
Also worth noting, this doesn't account for the spillover effects of rising energy prices on goods and services throughout the economy. This is hard to estimate, but my best attempt is that this may add another 1-1.5 points on top of energy's direct 2.5 point contribution in May.
Read 4 tweets
Okay, so part 2 of a 🧵on inflation (for part 1, see embedded tweet). Same caveats apply. This part will discuss some of the sources for the inflation we're experiencing and what can be done about it.
#cdnecon #cdnpoli
1/
As has been widely reported, a main driver of the rise in CPI has been energy prices, primarily gasoline. The steep rise in crude oil, particularly because of Russia's illegal invasion of Ukraine, and tight refining capacity, have caused those prices to shoot up.

2/
In addition, some other commodities and goods are seeing high prices due to supply chain issues and other supply constraints/concerns. The pros call these "cost-push inflation."

3/
Read 21 tweets
So, I thought I would try to do a 🧵(maybe threads) on inflation. "Everything you wanted to know about inflation, but couldn't afford to ask given today's prices." Caveat lector: I'm not an academic/PhD holder and not opining on the merits any policy actions.
#cdnecon #cdnpoli
1/
In particular, some comments about CPI, which is the most widely reported measure for inflation. Mainly, what is it and some of its limitations, but why it is still important.

2/
CPI is the Consumer Price Index. Basically, it is a survey of the prices of a representative basket of goods and services, meant to roughly represent what the average household spends its disposable income on. It is always indexed to a base year.

3/
Read 12 tweets
Today's data: inflation! 📈 CIP increased by 5.7 percent in February compared to one-year earlier; 4.4 percent if energy excluded. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti… #cdnecon
Price increases are also broad based across many product categories. Approximately two in three items within the CPI saw price increases above 3%.
What's behind the acceleration of inflation? Two years ago, the rate was close to 2% (near the target). The increase to 5% is due to just a few items: groceries, gasoline, home depreciation, fuel. Here's an illustration.
Read 7 tweets
Today's data: inflation! 📈

Average consumer prices in January 2022 were 5.1% higher than a year earlier. Highest since 1991. Excluding energy, prices were 4% higher. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti… #cdnecon
What's behind the accelerating inflation rate? This visual might help. It decomposes the change in inflation due to several important components. Energy prices and household depreciation account for most of the change.
What's homeowners' replace cost (i.e., depreciation)? I explain here: thehub.ca/2022-01-25/mak…
Read 4 tweets
The political right is a Ponzi scheme using grift, disinformation & malign influence. It promotes bad faith actors like #PierrePoilievre - who spews his economic illiteracy the way anti-vaxxers spread covid disinformation. No surprise Poilievre & trolls promote cryptocurrency. ImageImageImageImage
This isn’t a benign problem. Bad faith actors like #PierrePoilievre, Keean Bexte, “Rebel” so-called News (both of which solicit “donations” in cryptocurrency), are part of a larger issue affecting #CdnNatSec #CdnEcon.

#cdnpoli ImageImageImage
It isn’t just the volatility of #crypto. Although that too poses a multitude of problems.
As Vivaldi CEO, Jon von Tetzchner, points out, crypto is rife with issues. To say nothing of its environmental destruction. vivaldi.com/blog/why-vival…

#cryptocrash #cryptocurrencies ImageImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Hello #cdnpoli and #cdnecon! @BrettDolter @GK_Fellows and I have an exciting announcement. We've been working on figuring out the costs of #carbon pricing for Canadian households. 1/?
We are happy to announce the launch of our new, interactive website: carbontaxcosts.ca. You can compare costs by energy source, and different rebate types by province and income decile, and net returns (rebates less costs). 2/?
The rebate types are: lump sum payment, means-tested sales tax (GST/HST) credit increase, sales tax (GST) rate decrease, and increased basic exemption for personal income taxes. 3/?
Read 9 tweets
Today's data: inflation! 📈 www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…

CPI up 4.1% in August compared to last year. Highest since 2003. Excluding food/energy (which are highly volatile), prices up 3%. #cdnecon
Important to remember, though, that much of the higher inflation we've seen in recent months is in part due to drops during COVID and prices returning to trend today means above-average inflation since last year's levels are lower.

Here's an illustration of that.
Also important to remember that the central bank looks to several measures to understand inflation pressures. Here are three of their main metrics. One exceeds the target range, the two others still don't.
Read 7 tweets
Another strong jobs report confirms 🇨🇦's post-COVID rebound is continuing in the 3rd quarter. 90K new jobs, ¾ full-time. Official unemployment rate falls to 7.1%, lowest since COVID hit. Some evidence wage growth is accelerating: both hourly & weekly wages up 8% vs. Aug'19 ...2
Canada's employment recovery has been notably stronger than in the US, & the gap is growing. The claim that Canada's (stronger) emergency income supports somehow 'inhibit work' is false. The opposite is true: more consistent spending power has supported recovery. #Elxn44 #cdnecon
Here's a top-notch look at today's jobs numbers, in the context of bigger structural changes in 🇨🇦's labour market since COVID, by @don_pittis for @CBCNews: cbc.ca/news/business/…. I argue low-wage businesses facing labour retention problems need to blame themselves, not govt.
Read 3 tweets
THREAD: I will be live-tweeting on labour & employment issues from the #Elxn44 English debate this evening. My impressions and fact checks will draw on recent @CntrFutureWork research into several of the topics that should come up tonight, including:
...2
#cdnpoli #cdnecon
a) The economic & employment benefits of universal ECE: centreforfuturework.ca/2020/11/25/chi…. We found a national plan would create over 200K jobs in ECE itself, 80K in supply industries, and support up to 725K more FTE female labour force participants. A big boost to post-COVID recovery
...3
b) The need for pro-active & supported transition planning for workers in fossil fuel industries: centreforfuturework.ca/2021/01/18/emp…. Pretending the transition isn't happening doesn't help the 50K who've already lost work, without support. Will the next govt implement a genuine plan?
...4
Read 7 tweets
As someone who opposes Islamophobia, why should I vote strategically for a party that drafted a dog-whistle bill around it or that voted for it, over the NDP who didn't?

#Islamophobia #Elxn44 #cdnpoli
As someone who supports labour organizing, why would I vote strategically for a party who doesn't want to strengthen labour laws to support workers during strikes and lockouts, when the NDP does?

#canlab #strike #Elxn44
As someone who wants trade deals that are good for Canada and Canadian workers and don't contain harmful ISDs and respect our sovereignty, why would I vote strategically for any party who undermines that? #trade #cdnecon #Elxn2021
Read 17 tweets
1. I’ll say this again because it’s important. The Trudeau gov’t used deficit spending to steer 🇨🇦 through the worst global health & financial crisis in a century. It worked. The Harper/OToole #CPC couldn’t even manage a recession. #cdnecon #exln44 #NeverVoteConservative
2. 🇨🇦 was largely spared the worst of 2009 financial crisis due to previous Liberal gov’t banking regulations THAT #CPC LOBBIED AGAINST while in opposition. Had they succeeded, 🇨🇦 would’ve been hit much harder. Even so, Harper/OToole CPC couldn’t even manage the recession #Elxn44
3. The #CPC turned a $13B Liberal surplus into a $1.1B deficit BEFORE the recession. Then mismanagement the economy for nearly a decade after. Increasing poverty, starving 🇨🇦 of needed infrastructure investments & creating the worst trade deficits in Canadian history. #Elxn44
Read 13 tweets
When the #pandemic hit Canada in March 2020, the #Liberal Government of Canada opened up its $300 Billion Warchest to help Canadians fight it. #ForwardForEveryone #elxn44 #cdnpoli #IStandWithTrudeau 🇨🇦 thedailyscrum.ca/2020/03/14/tru…
2 March 2021
🇨🇦Canada’s economic growth exceeded central bank and market expectations in the fourth quarter, overcoming a 2nd wave of Covid-19 cases that forced a fresh set of economic restrictions across the country. #cdnecon #elxn44 #ForwardForEveryone wsj.com/articles/canad…
DBRS Inc confirmed the Government of Canada’s Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Ratings at AAA. DBRS Morningstar confirmed the Government of Canada’s Short-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Ratings at R-1. The trend on all ratings is Stable. dbrsmorningstar.com/research/37555…
Read 5 tweets
Excited to share this new journal article, I co-authored with Beiling Yan, that’s now published in Canadian Public Policy (by @utpjournals): utpjournals.press/doi/full/10.31…

#CdnEcon #Econtwitter
...Our goal in this paper was to analyze the potential to increase Canada’s exports and foreign direct investment abroad.

To do so, we constructed a unique administrative dataset @StatCan_eng with detailed information for millions of firms that operated in Canada from 2010-15.
...Our big research challenge: how do you identify “potential” exporters?

In the past, people surveyed firms to ask if they could become future exporters.

But you might worry that approach may be unreliable, if some firms say “yes”, even if they aren’t serious exporters.
Read 13 tweets
Almost there: EDC's Canadian Economy Recovery Tracker (CERT) is showing significant recent progress, driven by big improvements in COVID cases and loosening government restrictions edc.ca/en/guide/edc-c… #CdnEcon Image
...Here are the COVID indicators, which are looking much, much better than in May. Image
...The Canadian price of oil continues to climb higher. Image
Read 5 tweets
Since #Harper is trending, let me take this opportunity to remind everyone that 🇨🇦 is still paying a heavy price for the decade of darkness from his #CPC.

#Conservatives self-servingly claim he’s long gone from office & it’s ridiculous to invoke him. Wrong. #cdnpoli
There are too many acts of corruption, malice, subterfuge, fraud & blind ideology to possibly list in a Twitter thread. So I’ll just bring up some highlights.

1st. Harper’s secret #FIPA with China, where he sold 🇨🇦 out & tied the hands of all future Cdn governments for 31 years.
Then there was Harper & #CPC selling 🇨🇦’s Wheat Board to a conglomerate controlled by the Saudis. #cdnpoli
Read 7 tweets

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