Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #cdnecon

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First, I want to say how impressed I am with the work @StatCan_eng has been doing to keep us informed, and help us get *better* informed with regard to policy relevant data.
Today's LFS report was a masterpiece of clarity.
www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
1/n
Second, this report says, near the bottom, about 1/5th of all Canadian households are having difficulty meeting basic household financial needs (rent or mortgage payments, utilities, groceries), and it's been about 1 in 5 since April. That's 2.5 MILLION households! YIPES
2/n
# of households in 2019 from here
www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-402-…
Read 22 tweets
What is the #cdnmedia all over this week peeps?
#WEscandal not-a-scandal Trump-CPC scheme.

What are they not talking about:
- assassination attempt on PM
-$19B economic sttimulus
-disability benefit
-Canadian retail 19% ⬆️YOY thanks to CEWB et govt support, Recouped all losses.
Exhibit 1 #cdnmedia Were you not Con shills and sycophants this would be breaking news. We learned nothing from the US debacle & are haing Trump’s playbook. Canadians are smarter than you think. #ButWE #cdnpoli

bnnbloomberg.ca/retail-sales-r…
None of this extraordinary recovery...and make no mistake...it is extraordinary...would be possible without this PM. CERB/CEWB/retail rent relief, special loans = companies keep employees & cd pick up the ball & run. Consumers kept spending power. @CPC_HQ desperate to distract.
Read 9 tweets
Here's the latest from @AndrewDiCap, @Jen_Topping and I on EDC's survey of the initial impacts of COVID-19 on Canadian exporters edc.ca/en/blog/covid-…

#CdnEcon
First the good news:

1) It looks like the worst is behind us...

Our survey corroborates other indicators for May, which suggest the Canadian economy has turned the corner—tentatively emerging from the worst of the global pandemic, and taking the first steps on road to recovery.
...Business re-openings are slowly proceeding, in a tentative phased-in approach (although many are still operating well below capacity).

Of the 54% of respondents who had closed their physical store locations:
Read 10 tweets
A THREAD with some thoughts on today's 🇨🇦 Labour Force report. The headline growth in jobs (almost 1 million) was very encouraging, much better than expected. By that measure, we've climbed almost halfway back out of the hole we fell into Feb-April. #cdnecon @CntrFutureWork ..2
But the next steps of job recovery will be much harder to achieve. The share of unemployed expecting to go back to their former jobs is way down (just 1/3 now). And I expect a wave of 2nd-order layoffs as companies permanently downsize because their market isn't coming back..3
Recent examples of that include Bombardier and VIA Rail. The official unemployment rate (12.7%) is still just the tip of the iceberg. Counting people nominally employed but not working, and those who've given up looking, a more realistic measure of unemployment is 21-22%. ..4
Read 11 tweets
*NEW* Among 6,292 jobless workers who lost job after mid-February, I find that women, especially women with young kids, and older workers, are significantly less likely to be searching for a new job. But weak evidence that workers benefiting most from CERB are searching less.
These estimates, from a linear probability model, suggest to me that in mid-May caregiving constraints and virus fears were more important labour supply obstacles than CERB-induced work disincentives. #cdnecon #cdnpoli
Here's the same table with the R-squared and sample size in their correct rows (urgh).
Read 4 tweets
.@StatCan_eng senior researcher René Morissette has written two very interesting papers on jobs, wages, and work-related benefits, offering insights and a backdrop that will inform our understanding of post #COVID19 jobs.

Get the summary here:
www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…

#cdnecon
Whether #COVID19 job losses are temporary or permanent will be very important for the economic fallout of the pandemic.
@StatCan_eng finds:

"at least one-half of long tenure displaced men and women aged 25 to 54 saw their real earnings decline by at least 10% from the year before job loss to five years after job loss."

www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…

#cdnecon
Read 7 tweets
I have a few stories about racism in Economics academe, but one sticks out, and in light of the discussion of racism in our profession, I thought I'd share it today. Buckle up. 1/n #cdnecon #Econtwitter
Many years ago, a friend kindly asked me to chair a session at the ASSA meetings. In it were two notable papers (the third was less controversial): the first posited a genetic explanation for cross-country development differences.... 2/n
The second examined the current regional differences in Anti-Semitism in a certain European country and their relation to pre-1945 patterns of anti-Semitism. The session had a number of the long-run growth/economic growth glitterati in attendance. 3/n #cdnecon
Read 18 tweets
Congrats to this year's Doug Purvis Memorial Prize Winner:

Journal of Labour Economics

Edited by: David Card and @POreopoulos

#ACEA2020 @CanEconomics
Here's a link to the volume: journals.uchicago.edu/toc/jole/2019/…

which includes papers by lots of top Canadian academics such as @kevinmilligan @tammyschirle @KoryKroft @fabolange @mikalskuterud @MilesCorak Casey Warman and others not on Twitter ;)

#CdnEcon
....Now streaming: Doug Purvis Memorial Lecture presented by Professor Anne Case economics.ca/events/doug-pu…

results from her new book "Deaths of Despair" with Angus Deaton

#CdnEcn
Read 8 tweets
THREAD on today's grim #LFS report: The official unemployment rate has never been a worse indicator of true unemployment. 2.4m Cdns were officially unemployed in April. That's 13.0%: bad by any definition. But that's just the start ...2 #cdnecon
There were 2.4m *more* Cdns who reported being 'employed', but who didn't work at all. Over 80% of those (1.9m) did not get paid. Include those employed but not working and not paid, takes the unemployment rate to 23.4%. But there's more ...3
There's 1.1m *more* Cdns who didn't work, and wanted to work, but did not 'actively' seek it. What's the point of looking for something that doesn't exist? Adjust both unemployment and the labour force for that group, unemployment becomes 27.7% ...4
Read 6 tweets
Unemployment in Canada rose to 13% in April, but that masks much of the story. Many have zero hours. Many others exited the labour force.

I've put together some alternative measures of the 'effective' unemployment rate in #cdnecon. Now: 32%. (Will explain in this thread.)
This says that unemployment "would have been" 32% if the participation rate and average hours were unchanged between February and April 2020. Usually this doesn't change much from month-to-month. See red line pre-Feb.
And here's the decomposition of the changes. Much of the increase is because of people leaving the labour force (who aren't counted as "unemployed").
Read 11 tweets
1/43 So far I've supported @fordnation's response to the #COVID19 pandemic in #ONpoli, but this marks a turning point that recklessly plays with fire & a return to partisan agendas that will explode the death rate in rural Ontario

See #THREAD for details

cbc.ca/news/canada/to…
2/43 #THREAD Re #COVID19 in #ONpoli #CDNpoli cc @fordnation

Although I appreciate the political pressures on Premier Ford to re-open the economy, he's become insulated in a #TOpoli bubble that is utterly tone deaf & detrimental to Conservative strongholds in cottage country
3/43 #THREAD Re #COVID19 in #ONpoli #CDNpoli cc @fordnation

I'm speaking in these partisan terms in an effort to get through to Premier Ford, that his predetermined decision to send urban Ontario to cottage country for the May 2-4 holiday is so mistaken it will cost him votes
Read 45 tweets
Can the Federal govt handle the additional COVID spending? Some are raising debt concerns. Since it's important to think this through. I try to help here (with calculations!). #cdnecon #cdnpoli 1/n
First, interest rates and borrowing costs aren't really the issue in the short-term. Borrowing rates are incredibly low right now. Question is only how soon we return to normal budget balances. bankofcanada.ca/rates/interest…
To explore this, I run some scenarios based on the PBO estimates released this morning. But I project beyond 2020 to give a sense of magnitudes. (Lots of uncertainty, but still helpful!) Note: *these are scenarios, not predictions*.
Read 16 tweets
Slowth is not de-growth.
This is an old chart, ending at 2017 because the metric is no longer updated (chained 2007 dollars). I'll butt splice a more up-to-date series.
Slowth is the secular trend to slowing GDP growth over time. Not unique to #cdnecon
Causes for slowth /2
A lot of people talk about slowth as "secular stagnation" Loss of profitability/productivity (innovation slowdown, blah blah)
The biggest factor is demographic.
This holds across the global north (more industrialized=older, incl China and Sth Korea)
In Canada it looks like this.
The more olds you have in a population, the more restricted/fixed incomes, less purchasing power.
In Canada the biggest component of GDP is household spending, so population aging is a natural drag on growth.

Other reasons for slowth /4
Read 19 tweets
In one hour @StatCan_eng will release the jobs numbers.

They will refer to one particular week in March, from Sunday the 15th to Saturday the 21st, and are a one-week picture, just a single frame in a movie that has now been running for more than a month.

#cdnecon #cdnmedia
The employment numbers will be an obvious headline, and there will also be a big jump in unemployment, but both of these statistics needed to be rounded out to capture the full extent of the #COVID19 fallout

#cdnecon #cdnmedia
.@StatCan_eng classifies someone as "employed" if they have at least one hour of paid work in an employer-employee relationship (self-employment aside), so reductions in hours of work, don't reflected in the employment totals

#cdnecon #cdnmedia
Read 30 tweets
BREAKING: TC Energy Corp has just announced it will proceed with construction on the Keystone XL oilsands pipeline project. The line would carry 830,000 barrels of crude from Alberta to the U.S. Midwest each day. A previous @CBCNews story on the project: cbc.ca/1.5494110
In an interview with the Financial Post, Alberta Premier Jason Kenney says TC Energy Corp will begin work as early as tomorrow. The newspaper says the province is making a preferred equity investment of about $1.1B US, enough to cover construction costs until the end of 2020.
Here's the news release from TC Energy Corp confirming the terms of the Keystone XL agreement between the oil company, formerly known as TransCanada Corporation, and the government of Alberta: #cdnecon
Read 6 tweets
Oh Andrew Coyne. Time to debunk this media myth making. Who is up for a trip down memory lane about the economic record of the Harper government? Let's start with some background with what Harper conservatives inherited from the Liberals under Chretien/Martin. #cdnpoli #cdnecon
The federal debt under the Liberals was reduced by $90 billion from 1993-2006; the debt burden fell from 66.6 per cent in 1994-95 to 31.4 per cent in 2006-07. #cdnpoli #cdnecon
The Liberals implemented a temporary capital tax on large deposit taking institutions, a higher tax on large corporations, a temporary corporate surtax; and higher excise taxes on gasoline and tobacco products. There were ZERO personal tax increases. #cdnpoli #cdnecon
Read 17 tweets
Any thoughts on this #CdnEcon?

I've heard this refrain a lot in the lat few weeks.

It's too hard to forecast right now, so we won't attempt to do so.

What do you think?
...As someone who has spent many years forecasting, this reaction strikes me as incredible --- especially among forecasters.

Of course any point forecast will be wrong, it was also so.
...But one key point of a forecast --- is *the exercise* of doing the forecast.

It forces you to sit down, as a collective team, reflect, educate yourself on recent developments and importantly use data, analysis and modelling to quantify a complicated and uncertain world.
Read 7 tweets
From @JustinTrudeau this morning: EI claims reach 500k this week. By far the most ever recorded. #cdnecon
That 500k is ~2.6% of employment, which is the first confirmation we've had that March 2020 will be the largest employment drop in recorded Canadian history. Previous record was -2.6% for the whole of July 1932. We've reached that drop now in a single week.
Given the interest in this tweet, I should give a citation: historic employment data is available through the Canada Year Books: www66.statcan.gc.ca/acyb_000-eng.h… It's labour intensive to collect, but it's there. The -2.6% is the change in my own estimate of the seasonally adjusted data.
Read 7 tweets
Thread👇: I'm *still* seeing too many calls in my feed for fiscal restraint in Canada in response to the current crisis. This makes *no* sense. Stop fighting the debt & deficit battles of the early 1990s: that was a different time w/ different challenges. #cdnecon #cdnpoli 1/4
Globally, we were already near the point of diminishing marginal returns from monetary policy easing before this crisis. #COVID19 and the oil price war have set off demand + supply shocks that need timely, frontloaded monetary *and* fiscal responses. #cdnecon #cdnpoli 2/4
Canada's cupboards aren't bare: @PBO_DPB sees room for substantial add'l fiscal stimulus from Ottawa--around CAD 40 bn or 2% of GDP--while keeping debt:GDP stable. With lower interest rates, we have even *more* room for stimulus. pbo-dpb.gc.ca/web/default/fi… #cdnecon #cdnpoli 3/4
Read 5 tweets
Bank of Canada matches Fed, cuts benchmark rate a half point to 1.25 per cent, citing COVID-19. “The outlook is clearly weaker now than it was in January,” the BoC said. 1/n #cdnecon $CAD
BoC says it “stands ready to adjust monetary policy further if required to support economic growth and keep inflation on target.” 2/n
BoC says “markets continue to function well … will continue to ensure that the Canadian financial system has sufficient liquidity.” 3/n
Read 7 tweets
In a few minutes @StatCan_eng will release 2018 information on incomes and the poverty rate, allowing us to update this picture and inform Canadians about progress toward the poverty reduction targets set by @SocDevSoc @HonAhmedHussen

#cdnpoli #cdnecon
@StatCan_eng @SocDevSoc @HonAhmedHussen .@StatCan_eng may confirm plans on how the poverty line will be updated, something that hasn't happened in more than a decade and probably leading the official poverty line to under-estimate the extent of poverty in Canada.
@StatCan_eng @SocDevSoc @HonAhmedHussen .@StatCan_eng has already signaled that some proposed revisions to the official poverty rate may indicate a higher poverty rate, others a lower rate.
Read 22 tweets
The “fiscal stabilization” program might soon be changed by the federal government. Reform is long overdue. I wrote a paper through @IRPP that explains the program and lays out options. Released today! irpp.org/research-studi… #cdnpoli #cdnecon
The history of such programs is important. I document that the cap — of $60/person, which is Alberta’s main point of concern — was implemented with little analysis and even less thought. Absent a clear justification for it, the case to scrap the cap is strong.
Also, I believe this is the first time the data behind the stabilization payments has ever been provided. Not only interesting, but necessary to calculate all the reform options. Big thanks to all the dedicated public servants both in Alberta and Federally for providing it.
Read 9 tweets
I am re-doing this thread cuz I flubbed it and it's super important to know.
Highlights:
The # of gig workers in Canada was up by 70% between 2005 and 2016 (~1 million to 1.7million), and the % of Canadians trying to earn via gigwork is up 49% (5.5% to 8.2%)
#FutureOfWorkers /2
2) Of the 8.2% of CDN workers who were gig workers, more women (9.1%) than men (7.2%)
3) Half (48.6%) had no regular (T4) job
4) The bottom 40% poorest workers twice as likely to do gig work
5) Gig work more prevelant among immigrants
4) Median income: $4,300
#cdnecon #canlab /3
7) For many gig workers, total net gig income was negative. Almost half (48.6%) had no other wage-earning job. 36.3% had one wage job, 15.1% had multiple jobs. So for about half these workers, gigs were sidehustles and a way to boost earnings.
#cdnecon #canlab /4
Read 17 tweets

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