Thread by @fascinatorfun

@katylindemann @DRTomlinsonEP @cpeedell I think a series of misjudgments took place.

From the Vallance Security & Intelligence report (I think June 2019) he clearly said diagnostics and PPE needed to be stepped up.

Nothing happened. Change of leader.

@katylindemann @DRTomlinsonEP @cpeedell BUT in that report whilst the possibility of a bad flu pandemic was seen as risking £trillion economic hit, a coronavirus like SARS was seen as a markedly smaller risk “Like Toronto”

⬇️450 infected. 44 died. Worldwide. ⬇️9k infected ⬇️800 dead.

@katylindemann @DRTomlinsonEP @cpeedell Because it transmitted symptomatically.

Indeed even after CV19 was identified right into early mid Feb it was being described by China and WHO as a symptomatic transmitter. By mid Feb we knew otherwise.

@katylindemann @DRTomlinsonEP @cpeedell Even then there seemed some other view in PHE.

But your diagnositic and track, trace & isolate capacity is very different for a deadly virus that transmits asymptomatically or presymptomafically

They got off on the wrong foot.

@katylindemann @DRTomlinsonEP @cpeedell They Were faced with insufficient capacity.

They had a plan for flu.
They had some experience with containing a symptomatic transmission coronavirus but none for an asymptomatic one much beyond to slow the spread a bit.

Minutes and docs discussed here

https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1268137913742737408?s=21

https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1268137913742737408