Chancellor just announced that economist Richard Hughes @rjdhughes , former IMF official, top Treasury fiscal adviser and author of below interesting coronavirus report at @resfoundation will take over from Robert Chote as Chair of OBR, independent tax and spend numbers watchdog
“Preferred” chair, I shd say. Treasury Select Committee has to approve all appointments... but this will have been welcomed in tax & spend circles, also someone with international experience, who has engaged in early influential blue skies thinking on fiscal impact of coronavirus
In terms of forecasting - Hughes very much on money in assessing impact of unprecedented pandemic/ shutdowns on GDP - early on pointing to double digit falls in GDP, & rises in public borrowing... partly by looking at grim impact of previous pandemics...
Also proved his independence of mind when suggesting some then radical changes to fiscal remit for @resfoundation, elements of which most main parties adopted in their election manifestos resolutionfoundation.org/publications/t…
OBR’s job is to forecast and judge adherence to rules, not to set them.
At the margin - perhaps means Chancellor might engage with net worth targeting, at upcoming review. But certainly is in keeping with fiscal rules that accommodate significant infrastructure investments.
At the margin - perhaps means Chancellor might engage with net worth targeting, at upcoming review. But certainly is in keeping with fiscal rules that accommodate significant infrastructure investments.
