NEW: ONS has had a close look at the 13k excess deaths (out of 46k total) that were not specifically Covid - conclude most likely majority were undiagnosed Covid, on basis of age, and places where formal tests for Covid sparse:
Excess deaths spiked particularly in care homes and private homes for asthma and sepsis...
Hugh on the new R-rate calculations...
Probability that the R-rate is greater than 1 is above 50% in South West and North West England... goes up after the relaxation of lockdown last month from 30ish per cent...
PHE/ Cambridge model:
mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
PHE/ Cambridge model:
mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/
R-rate PHE/ Cambridge model around, just above 1 for North West, South West, and just below for London, south East - second blue line is easing of lockdown...
The difference that r rate just above 1 makes to the PHE Cambridge models...
For England as whole deaths still forecast to be relatively contained v well below previous peak, but possibility in NW and SW with r just above 1 spiking back up (though numbers are much smaller)
For England as whole deaths still forecast to be relatively contained v well below previous peak, but possibility in NW and SW with r just above 1 spiking back up (though numbers are much smaller)
Health Sec said SAge said all English regions r value below 1... but at least one council, Tameside, has on basis of PHE number above “critical level” of 1 for NW “to try to avoid 2nd wave” primary schools won’t generally reioen until at least June 22
The local Director of Public Health in Tameside has written to all schools “strongly advising” them to delay further reopening from Monday for a fortnight on basis of PHE r estimate of 1.01 having advised the reopening previously on Sage estimate of 0.73...
Text sent to local primary school parents...
Did spot this in PHEs numbers on schools respiratory outbreaks yesterday - hopefully just one off spike - but something happened here and just on basis of key workers, not wider reopening:
Obviously @jenwilliamsMEN across this - other GM councils also considering...
Basically central Government advising reopen based on set of R numbers just below 1.
Local Govt advising delay based on PHE R number just above 1.
Shape of things to come.
Basically central Government advising reopen based on set of R numbers just below 1.
Local Govt advising delay based on PHE R number just above 1.
Shape of things to come.
