Thread by @ScottBarrettDFB

Slot Wide Receivers Don’t Matter: A Thread

#SWRDM

We've all heard that "Running Backs Don't Matter"

One argument: “RBs are a dime a dozen. Your GM is an idiot if he spends a Day 2 pick on a RB. Any UDFA will do.”

But are we sure slot wide receiver production isn’t just as (if not more) cheaply available / easily replaceable

Here are the top Yards from Scrimmage (RB) seasons over the past 15 years:

Now, let’s do the same thing with slot wide receivers:

If it’s not already obvious:

The top slot wide receiver seasons of the past decade is almost entirely comprised of UDFAs and R7 picks, and 33+ year old veterans on the verge of retirement.

The top running backs are all high draft picks in rookie contracts. Weird.

This is overly-simplistic analysis. It might suffer a bit from hindsight bias. And it fails to address how high end RB vs. slot WR yards translates to wins.

(I get it. I don't have any answers. I'm just asking questions.)

In 2019, the 49ers gained 1,395 rushing yards with UDFA RBs

But according to Lance Zierlein that’s a particularly unique example. You really don’t need a high quality running back in a Shanahan / outside zone scheme:

I’ve heard something similar with slot WRs

“A lot of their production is schemed / comes from the scheme, which can make good slots appear great."

Perhaps Belichick is the ultimate example

Patriots Leading Receivers [R7, R8, UDFA WRs highlighted]

So, like running backs, their production can be more a result of scheme than talent

But they can also be scheme-sensitive in a different sort of way (and again, like running backs)

After drafting Jalen Reagor (18% Slot in 2019) over Justin Jefferson (99% Slot in 2019) in the 2020 Draft, Eagles GM Howie Roseman had this to say:

Analytically-minded Roseman clearly thinks outside separation is rarer and more valuable than inside separation.

That’s another point in favor of Slot WRs not mattering

But also it’s more valuable to the FIT of his team. Eagles ran 12 personnel more frequently than any other team last year, and as such ranked 29th in slot WR routes run

(As a quick fantasy aside, MIN had a slot WR running a route half as often as PHI. Big yikes for Jefferson.)

Okay, now here’s where things get interesting.

Running Backs don’t NOT matter, they just matter a lot less than the other positions. But how much so? Quantify it.

That’s what Peter Owen did here:

https://twitter.com/JSmoovesBrekkie/status/1255277376788971522?s=20

According to his study using SiS’s data, RBs have the same predictive value as CBs and more than Cs but still rank low overall

Using PFF’s data, RBs ranked lowest

But apparently, both sites were in agreement - QB was BY FAR the most-important position, and WR was next-closest

One of the issues with this is it treats all RBs the same. But an every-down bell cow isn’t the same as a pass-catching specialist isn’t the same as a goal-line specialist, etc

Similarly, I’d love to see wide receivers split by X, Y, Z

And TE by Y, F

Where would slot WRs land?

Peter’s study is super awesome, but a pretty good proxy is just looking at what NFL teams are doing

You know, the experts who have real skin in the game

The highest-paid wide receivers over the past seven seasons:

(Slot WRs highlighted)

Clearly the NFL was already well aware we should be devaluing slot WRs (at least relative to outside WRs)

And, actually, we see something similar with RBs

% of Salary Cap Allocated to RBs vs. Safeties

2012: 14% vs. 15%
2013: 13% vs. 15%
2014: 11% vs. 14%
2015: 10% vs. 15%
2016: 9% vs. 15%
2017: 9% vs. 15%
~Twitter invented RBDM~
2018: 8% vs. 15%
2019: 8% vs. 15%
2020: 9% vs. 15%

Anyway,,,

I'm open to being wrong. Just something I've been thinking about. Eager to hear your thoughts

lol well @LateRoundQB raised a fine point. Comparing to RB was a useless distraction

Here's OUT vs. SLOT WR

(I'm aware this suffers from hindsight bias, doesn't take into account increase in 11 personnel over latter half of sample)