The larger logical strategic consequences of POTUS’ incoherent policy is fairly simple to figure out /1
Trump resorts to tariffs whenever he perceives an unfairness. Unfortunately his perception is not related to the current system of international trade. Worse - countries he threatens least tend to be autocratic, with “strong” leaders. He loses respect if you give in /2
As the threats do not follow a logically coherent strategy and a cooperative solution is hard to find, the US’ national allies are - often against their own desires - pushed away from the US. /3
POTUS’ main strategic challenge - finding a way to adapt the international trading system to China’s presence - becomes more difficult to face, as POTUS forces US allies to work with China to tackle challenges. /4
As someone who believed that US leadership in the world was, on balance, a powerful force for the better - well, I am dismayed. /5
