1/9 Another week. Momentous, painful. And another CDC COVID-View. Quick summary of key findings. Note what’s NOT reported: case numbers, which are largely irrelevant - we find only about 1 in 10 cases and the numbers are highly dependent on testing intensity and approaches.
2/9 First, the good news on #COVID19 epidemiology. Percent of tests positive continues to decrease, as do trends for the proportion of outpatient visits for ILI and CLI (influenza-like illness and covid-like illness). Proportions can be misleading, but the trend is important. 
3/9 (Proportion can be misleading because when people avoid health care because of #COVID19, the proportion can increase even if infections are decreasing, so it's important to track both proportion and numbers of ILI/CLI.)
4/9 Remember that signal from Wisconsin last week? It’s gone this week. Bears watching, but emphasizes need to use sophisticated cluster detection methods, as @Farzad_MD and @MartinKulldorffhave pioneered and emphasized.
4/9 Now two pieces of not-so-good news. In 4 regions, test positivity increased: southeast, south central, west coast, Pacific northwest. And the positivity rate in kids continues to stay stable or increase.
5/9 Leading hypothesis: adults bringing infection home to their kids. We should offer housing for infectious period for all with #COVID19 infection. That's what best programs around world do. Limits spread and protects families. Should be voluntary, appealing temporary housing.
6/9 Race/ethnicity inequalities persist, with Native and Black people having 5x and Hispanic/Latino people 4x the hospitalization rate of whites. Disproportionate burden requires a disproportionate response: focus on protection, prevention, engagement, support.
7/9 Now, the most encouraging trend. Deaths continued to plummet. Within a week or two, rates may be at or near baseline IF trends continue. Note this is the percent of deaths from pneumonia, influenza, COVID-19. Percent, not number, because this is the most reliable indicator.
8/9 But even with this trend, there could be hundreds of deaths from #COVID19 each day. Preventable. Tragic. And representing continued spread and risk. However, Europe, weeks ahead of us epidemiologically, appears to be reopening without rekindling. app.bitly.com/Bh1i1jBMRfY/bi…
9/9 So, wait and see. Start safer: Wear a mask, Wash your hands, Watch your distance. Box the virus in: test, isolate, contact trace, and quarantine. Track the pandemic and our response. Protect nursing homes, homeless, jails, factories etc. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
