You all probably won't read all of this coz you lazy, but basically there is a lots of similarities between late 70s and now: inflation rising asf, war risks all over the world, and a LAST MACRO WAVE 5 in gold and markets
$BTC is currently in the same position as gold in 1978 IMO
Look what ChatGPT is saying :
### **Inflation and War Risk: Late 1970s vs. Current Dates**
#### **Inflation in the Late 1970s**
The late 1970s were marked by what is known as the "Great Inflation." Key characteristics include:
- **High Inflation Rates**: Inflation rates soared, reaching as high as 14% by the end of the decade². This period saw persistent and high inflation, driven by factors such as oil price shocks, loose monetary policies, and high government spending.
- **Economic Impact**: The high inflation eroded purchasing power and led to economic instability. The Federal Reserve eventually had to implement very high interest rates to control inflation, which led to recessions².
#### **Current Inflation**
In recent years, inflation has also been a significant concern, particularly following the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions:
- **Rising Inflation**: Inflation rates have increased globally, with some countries experiencing rates above 6%¹. Factors include supply chain disruptions, increased demand post-pandemic, and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on energy prices.
- **Central Bank Responses**: Central banks have been raising interest rates to combat inflation, similar to the late 1970s, though the current rates are generally lower than the peak rates of the 1970s¹.
#### **War Risk in the Late 1970s**
The late 1970s were a period of heightened geopolitical tension, primarily due to the Cold War:
- **Cold War Tensions**: The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 significantly increased tensions between the Soviet Union and the West⁵. This period saw a sharp increase in the perceived risk of nuclear conflict.
- **Impact on Markets**: The geopolitical instability contributed to market volatility and uncertainty, influencing investor behavior and market trends.
#### **Current War Risk**
Today, geopolitical risks remain a significant factor:
- **Russia-Ukraine Conflict**: The ongoing conflict has had substantial economic and market impacts, particularly through its effects on energy prices and global supply chains¹.
- **Global Tensions**: Other geopolitical tensions, such as those involving China and the US, also contribute to market uncertainty.
### **Wave 5 Macro in Elliott Wave Theory**
In both periods, the behavior and psychology of wave 5 in Elliott Wave Theory are influenced by these macroeconomic and geopolitical factors:
- **Late 1970s**: The high inflation and war risk contributed to a speculative mania and market volatility. Wave 5 during this period would have been characterized by heightened emotions, such as greed and fear, driven by economic instability and geopolitical tensions.
- **Current Period**: Similar factors are at play today, with high inflation and geopolitical risks influencing market behavior. Wave 5 in the current context might also see significant divergence between price and momentum indicators, reflecting underlying market instability.
What's pretty cool is that in the Late 1970s**: The high inflation and war risk contributed to a speculative mania. Giving the last macro wave 5.
Which is EXACTLY what I think is happening on trad markets and especially in crypto
Ok so if the theory is right, we are in a speculative mania due to wave 5 in trad, thus you go higher on the risk curve, and you go into crypto
Jackpot
But thing is, crypto is now here for years, and is ALSO in last macro wave 5, which is the most speculative one!
A 2 year Wyckoff accumulation breaking out with a Livermore accumulation cylinder, and now re - accumulating into an ascending triangle / pennant on top of the Livermore.
If you don't like this chart and expect a rally to at least 0.1, IDK what to tell you
large penetration of support line
sudden increase in volume
Candle that penetrates the zone of liquidity and that returns practically the totality of the move in 1or2 candles
Terminal shakeouts is used to define movements with much deeper penetration and with higher volume
2/X
If after the breakout of the lower part of the structure,price fails to stay below(we are currently here)and re-enters the range again,it denotes strong puchase entry and adds greater probability that the breakage is false and that the Spring /terminal shakeout is developping 3/x