Thread by @jaltucher

The New Abnormal - the Good, the Bad, the Ugly: Healthcare, Economy, Protests. Problems, solutions, opportunities. Will there be more (lockdowns/protests/viruses/crashes/...) ? ... (1/x)

- There will NOT be another lockdown. We know too much now about the fallacy of mathematical models. We know too much about which healthcare methods work and which don't. We are also starting to know affect of lockdown on mortality....

- the mortality rate of homeless people is 9x the mortality rate of non-homeless. No leader will risk 40 million jobs lost again. The collateral fatalities are too great among the impoverished and those needing other non-virus treatment. Plus mental illness affects. Next...

- There is $2.2 trillion in stimulus  and only about 20% has effected the economy with 80% to go.  
- There will likely be a second stimulus. Plus the Federal Reserve is using trillions to buffer different parts of the economy.  
- To put in perspective, the economy is... (3/x)

- To put in perspective, the economy is about $15 trillion a year. So trillions in stimulus will radically change/grow economy. Change will happen in ways we can't predict but this is the OPPOSITE of what happened in the 1930s with the Great Depression. In the 1930s... (4/x)

[To be clear, there is no ordering of the "good, the bad, and the ugly". In every aspect of what we are experiencing, like in life, there is all three.]. Now: In the 1930s...]

In The Great Depression, the government used "reverse stimulus" (e.g. RAISING interest rates) because they thought speculation was to blame. NOW: they are increasing speculation, which encourages innovation, creates prosperity, and increases employment. AND... (6/x)

- No hyperinflation: Currently we are in a massive deflationary environment. Inflation is often caused by high employment. This is NOT an issue now. Inflation is often caused by too much supply of currency - which is an issue - BUT... (7/x)

BUT... here is so much demand for US currency around the world (what other currency can replace the $?) that this still creates deflationary pressure. It's nearly impossible to have hyperinflation when our debt is in the same currency we raise taxes in.
BUT...virus... (8/x)

- Life is not going back to normal. First...Virus concerns:
   - we will be constantly on alert for second waves, second seasons, new viruses   
-  a vaccine will take longer than we think. We've been working on vaccine for another coronavirus, the common cold, for 50 years (9/x)

We've been working on vaccine for another coronavirus, the common cold, for 50 years and there is none. There are too many unknowns to expect a vaccine for COVID-19. Instead, expect medicines but not vaccines.
- next eruption or wave of COVID-19 will not ... (10/x)

Next wave of virus will not have as many fatalities
- we know more about ventilators, we know more about contagion rates, possible cures, we know more about who is susceptible. Expect 1/10 the fatalities or even less.
- testing and tracing is possible but ... (11/x)

Testing and tracing is possible but brings up civil rights issues that could negatively impact society
- Expect the media to scare people about second waves, deaths, etc. This is what the media does and they won't change. The solution: don't give them power. PART TWO...(12/x)

PART TWO: Protests, reforms, opportunities in the New Abnormal:

Why protests WILL occur again?  ... (13/x)

Why there will be more protests:
#1 when trials happen in MN, if one of the officers is acquitted there will be more protests, more questioning of police credibility, more Antifa and other groups getting involved in the message so important to young people.
#2... (14/x)

#2. More police brutality videos will surface in the coming months and we are not prepared as a society to answer the questions these videos pose.
#3 if Coronavirus comes back, are police departments ready to handle an increase in crime in a non-lethal way? And.. (15/x)

- The protests are a collage of groups: peaceful protestors, angry protestors, other groups trying to infiltrate for their own agendas. There is no real leadership and there are questions but no agreement on solutions.
- Compare this to... (16/x)

Compare current protests (or earlier "Occupy Wall St") to 1960s with MLK and Malcolm X. 1980s with Solidarity in Poland and Lech Walesa. Soutrh Africa with Nelson Mandela. India with Gandhi, even 1992 w Rodney King, etc. Reforms needed include... (17/x)

A) CRIMINAL JUSTICE REFORM     
- legalization of many non-violent crimes, drug related crimes, sex worker related crimes.      
- release of prisoners convicted of non-violent crimes
B) JOBS / LICENSING REFORM   - why does CA require licenses for over 177 occupations... (18/x)

B) JOBS / LICENSING REFORM - why does CA require licenses for over 177 occupations ... (average among US states is 92 occupations). This is a regressive tax on the poorer third of society.
- State licensing slows job growth by up to 20% per year.
C) BANKING... (19/x)

C) BANKING REFORM: over 10 million adults are "unbanked". Meaning they don't have bank accounts so resort to pawn shops and payday lenders.
- Allow companies like Square and Venmo to provide basic banking services like checking accounts and saving accounts...
D)LAW.. (20/x)

D) LAW ENFORCEMENT REFORM:      
- Revise vetting procedures for officers     
- Strict penalties and reduce qualified immunity laws.       - - - Review operating procedures to create more emphasis on usage of non-lethal or non-violent devices 
E) EDUCATION REFORM .. (21/x)

E) EDUCATION:
- ACCREDITATION - give accreditation for full degrees to online schools. Reducing time and money it takes to get a STEM degree
- APPRENTICESHIP - reward apprenticeship (with credits towards degrees)
- NO MORE GOVT BACKING OF STUDENT LOANS (22/x)

F) VOTER REFORM
- Make voting standards federal and not state by state.
- Supreme Court term limits (18 years, a new justice nominated every two years - h/t David Litt
NEXT: Entrepreneurship....(23/x)

The "new economy"
- remember these 4 words:
-ACCELERATION (if X in ten years then X will happen this year),

- REMOTE(automation, telemedicine, telelearning, drones, robotics, big data, AI,),

- LOCAL

-SAFETY (law enforcement, operating procedures for health safety... (24/x)

ANY stimulus now needs to be to consumersand not to bail out industries that will die anyway.    
- now is not the time to save sinking industries.
Direct to consumer has the most immediate positive impact on the economy. 
Opportunities... (25/x)

More side hustles that turn into businesses:
- create online courses / newsletters (teachable.com or substack.com)
- online stores vs bricks & mortar (shopify, etsy)
- Virtual assistant (Zirtual, etc)
- cloud kitchen vs physical restaurants. ... (26/x)

Spoke & Wheel:

the wheel: content creation that doesn't focus on luxury or "get rich" but on safety, humor, history, advice, learning. 

monetization spokes: podcast, book, blog, course, newsletter, speaking, consulting, patreon, social media, affiliate deals, etc. (27/x)

SUMMARY:
- virus is not solved. But we understand it better
- economy is not solved. But will bounce back fast and there will be opportunity
- protests will happen, but reforms also.
- SUCCESS to those who can live in the land of "not knowing". Inquiry > Certainty. [FINISHED]