Thread by @syrpis

Governments the world over face a huge challenge: to overcome coronavirus. A key determinant in their success has been - and will be - their capacity to maintain and build public trust.

What happens when they casually toss that trust away? Thread. 1/15 (sorry)

This crisis is putting new strains on people. People are scared; for their, and their community's, health and economic and social well-being. They are having to rely on the State to keep them safe and secure. 2/

In families, communities and workplaces, people are navigating uncertainty. We are (in the main...) learning to forgive mistakes, to go easy on each other, and finding new ways to support one another. 3/

What is striking for me (and it is this which prompts this thread) is that the similar spirit *in the political sphere*, which was evident in the early days of the pandemic, has now, in the UK at least, disappeared. 4/

At the start, levels of support for the Govt were high. But they are falling, and falling fast. People's willingness to give the Govt the benefit of the doubt seems to be disintegrating. 5/

The reasons are two-fold. First, there have simply been too many policy errors. The lockdown was delayed for too long. Care homes were abandoned. The test and trace system isn't fit for purpose. The death rate is very high. 6/

But the second reason is, I think, more important. It is not just that mistakes have been made; it is that they have not been acknowledged. Lessons have not been learned. Even now, the policy is proclaimed as an exemplar and a success. 7/

The impression is that the Govt is not only incompetent, but also that it does not care. When the science is inconvenient, it is jettisoned. When Dominic Cummings breaks the rules, there is no hint of an apology. The public health message is duly diluted. 8/

Many MPs are disenfranchised by farcical voting rules in the HoC. There is a blind refusal to buy time to reach a good Brexit deal with the EU. The priorities are to GBD (Get Brexit Done) and to 'fix Whitehall'. I could go on... 9/

(Of course, there are disconcerting parallels with the US. People are turning against a President who, it seems, has no intention of listening to their legitimate calls for change.) 10/

The modus operandi of the Govt is to sow division. It seeks to appeal (strongly) to its base, and cement its position by attacking 'others': 'the elite', 'immigrants', 'the EU', 'remainers', 'leftists'. I could go on... 11/

It looks very much as though we are about to find out what happens when the Govt keeps pushing a scared population. Things are brittle. They may break. 12/

Many in the Govt may want them to break. To build a new order out of the rubble of the old. Many who oppose the Govt have a similar objective... though, of course, the new order they seek to build is a radically different one. 13/

So, the time of crisis can be seen as a (high-stakes) time of opportunity.

From all perspectives: just as it is possible to envisage a 'better' new order, it is also possible to see things becoming significantly 'worse'. 14/

It is impossible to predict what will happen; and I find it difficult to know what to hope for.

We have a frightened population, which is ever more polarised. We have a Govt seemingly intent on stoking divisions. It's a dangerously unstable mix. 15/15

Lots of good responses to this thread; for which many thanks. It seems forlorn to hope that the Govt will see sense. It is, I think, far more likely to double down.

What can we do to try to effect change?

All ideas welcome. I expect sharply divergent views...