Thread by @marcgayle

In this presser the PM @AndrewHolnessJM addressed many absurd comments about the reopening decision and he made some good points.

The main point is about food, that a lot of people seem to not understand/appreciate.

IMPORTANT ⚠️

But first my thoughts on minor issues.

//Thread

https://twitter.com/AbkaFitzHenley/status/1269317737819619330

The most ridiculous comment I have seen floating around is that GOJ is reopening Tourism because of the donation that Sandals gave.

Firstly, that donation was $500K per constituency. It was given to all constituencies. Ie both parties. That didn’t just benefit GOJ.

Secondly, GOJ is reopening too soon.

The reality of this virus is two fold:
- No cure on the horizon.
- The recovery rate is higher and fatality rate lower than was initially expected.

The truth is that the fatality rate is likely much lower (%) than we currently know...

...because based on what we see from other countries, the number of people that have the virus and have no symptoms ranges between 4X - 8X the number of confirmed cases, that it is likely we have had at least 2X - 8X as many cases as have been tested.

Because there is no cure, we as a society have to learn to live with it. With more data, we realize that we don’t have to fear it as much as we initially did due to all of the uncertainty.

But more importantly, with social distancing, masks and sanitization...

we can stop/slow the spread.

So we have to just learn how to live with it. Keeping the country locked down another month or two won’t change that. All it will do is make the country more economically vulnerable.

So those are some of the cursory points.

The main point the PM made that I think is not being considered properly is one of food. It’s not a small issue.

It’s a BIG BIG deal.

Separate and apart from the fact that farmers and others that depend on the tourism industry need to regain the ability to earn ASAP....

the biggest issue is about food security for the island.

If the largest customers for many farmers no longer exist, the rational response for them is to stop planting new crops. Why take the risk if you are going to get stuck with produce?

What many of these farmers do is sell a big chunk of their harvest to tourism interests and the rest they sell to the local market. So the local market is partially subsidized by the tourism market, in the sense that in the absence of that more attractive mkt farmers...

would likely do something else.

Naturally this doesn’t apply to every single farmer in the country, but it applies to a large chunk.

So if all of those farmers who have lost their largest customer stop replanting and taking on that risk, supply of food drops.

As the supply drops, we will see shortages of some goods and we will see price increases for others.

So at a time when many of us have either lost our jobs, taken pay cuts, or generally tightening our belt because of the pandemic, increases in food prices is not good.

Not only do we have to deal with increased prices, we could very well face an issue where there are food shortages altogether.

You may say well if we can’t source it locally, we can always import.

The first problem with that is obviously the potential strain on FX this would cause. Tourism inflows are the largest source of FX and with those down significantly, GOJ has had to turn to the IMF & likely others to help stave off any FX related issues under normal conditions.

So if we shifted all food consumption to imports, that would spike demand for FX at precisely the worst time for us which would precipitate a Balance of Payments crisis.

The MoF & BOJ have been very proactive with this threat, so we are well prepared right now...aka no threat.

The second problem with this is that we assume that global food supply chains work and we can find food to import. That’s not an assumption we can take for granted because countries all over the world are struggling with this issue.

bbc.com/news/world-us-…

These are some more articles that show the strain that global food supply chains are under.

So even if we had the FX, there is no guarantee we could source a stable supply of all of our needs. It would also be more expensive.

nytimes.com/2020/04/22/wor…

bbc.com/news/world-us-…

What about the food fairs you ask? Those have been a great initiative to help farmers stem their losses. Not help them make a profit and build a sustainable business.

If they don’t see profit opportunities, they won’t continue planting.

Fairs aren’t big enough in scale.

Meaning, only a few thousand people benefit. Not millions.

Any solution has to see food getting to existing shops, wholesales, markets & supermarkets.

Not sustainable to rebuild new, permanent, distribution outlets for the island when all of the above already exists.

So when GOJ talks about securing lives and livelihoods, yes it is very important for everyone that depends on income from the tourism sector to begin earning again as quickly as possible, the bigger risk to the entire country is we may end up starving due to food shortages.

If we experience significant food shortages, crime and violence would spike and everything gets worse very quickly.

So I would encourage us all to have an open mind and begin to accept the fact that this is the new reality and we have to figure it out.

Even if you aren’t immediately impacted by the absence of tourism dollars in the short term, if our tourism sector remains locked down for an extended period of time you will be impacted.

The issue is that by the time you feel it, it may be too late to stop it.

Remember how at the beginning of this pandemic some were saying that GOJ was being too aggressive and locking down too soon because “Corona barely even reach JA yet”, yet now with hindsight we can all agree that those actions were well warranted because they weren’t too late.

It’s a similar situation now. If they don’t reopen now, we will face other issues that create other crises that can metastasize into something much bigger that is very difficult to control/stop and then everybody is worse off then.

I hope this has provided a little context and some food for thought (pardon the pun).

This issue is not just about food for tourism workers and beneficiaries (which I think should be sufficient enough), but it’s also about food security for all of us.