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Marc Gayle #GoldenWindowJA Profile picture
Marc Gayle #GoldenWindowJA
@marcgayle
Believer. Company Builder. Owner of @tcptings. Financial Analyst. I believe JA’s best years are ahead of her and I explain in my “Golden Window” thread.
Oct 1, 2021 • 20 tweets • 5 min read
What does this mean?

Per @J_Skally’s request I will attempt to “ELI5” (Explain Like I’m 5).

The way modern economies work is that the Central Bank 🏦 controls the amount of money in the financial system.

They have many tools. One is the “key policy rate”.

#FinanceTwitterJa The Central Bank (CB) is the bank for all banks and other financial institutions.

When you deposit cash at Bank A, a chunk of that cash is deposited at the CB in the account for Bank A.

The CB also tells all the banks how much of their deposits…
Mar 16, 2021 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
I am going to pull the curtain back on the design of #Budget2021. There are some strategic decisions made throughout and the budget tells us a story about GOJ’s thinking.

It’s interesting digging into the story so we can understand the mindset.

//MEGA Thread

#FinanceTwitterJa This is a very important budget for the following reasons:

- GOJ revenues are expected to fall by $70B or ~12% in FY 20/21
- GOJ expenses increased by ~$24B due to COVID
- PIOJ expects GDP to fall by 12% this FY ending March 31.
- GOJ had to do more, with less in the current FY.
Mar 16, 2021 • 17 tweets • 4 min read
1. Creative Risk Reduction Measures

The 3 Principles to Build Personal Wealth Are:

1. Make Money
2. Save Money
- Emergency Savings - to handle everyday, relatively minor non-budgeted expenses (replacing tech devices, buying meds, replace a car part, etc.).

#FinanceTwitterJa 2. Save Money continued
- Insurance - protect your savings and investments from major non-budgeted expenses (car accidents, hospital visits, natural disasters, etc.)

3. Invest Money
Mar 16, 2021 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
2. Growth via Infrastructure Investment

There is wide economic research that suggests that infrastructure investments are one of the most high-impact fiscal policy decisions that can boost economic growth. See one such paper below.

epi.org/publication/th… The general idea is two fold:

- Humans are needed to build infrastructure (e.g. roads). As humans build these roads, they earn money and they spend it in the rest of the economy. They buy lunch every day, they save some of it, they buy groceries, etc.
Mar 16, 2021 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
3. Growth via Technology Investment

Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)

- CBDC is NOT cryptocurrency (which is decentralized in nature). CBDC is backed and issued by BOJ.

- It will be legal tender, similar to the existing paper bills & coins we use, but all digital. - BOJ will issue CBDC to deposit-taking institutions (DTIs..i.e. banks, etc.) and authorized payment service providers (i.e. Billpay, BillExpress, etc.) similar to how they currently do it with paper currency.

- The most prominent way of transacting will be via mobile devices.
Mar 16, 2021 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
4. Employment Growth via MSME Growth

These initiative are close to my heart, because I run a SME and advise a number of entrepreneurs that do the same.

DBJ has a recently launched programme for qualifying MSMEs to get a $200,000 grant to be invested in a digital transition.. (which includes building out e-commerce functionality and digitizing internal processes and more), called the 'Go Digital' grant.

Under the SERVE Jamaica programme, GOJ is allocating $1B to the DBJ so that MSME's that qualify for the 'Go Digital' grant...
Jan 15, 2021 • 20 tweets • 4 min read
MSMEs & SMEs that sell consumer packaged goods directly to their customer via e-commerce should include a margin in their delivery fee.

I.e. do NOT charge your customer whatever the bearer charges you. Charge more.

You aren’t greedy, but prudent.

//Thread

#FinanceTwitterJa I am going to make a few assumptions here:

- You want to build an independent, growing, profitable business.
- You don’t have deep pockets.
- You don’t want to physically deliver yourself.
- You are doing your own fulfillment.
- You want to provide great customer svc.
Dec 28, 2020 • 17 tweets • 7 min read
I am going to pull the curtain back a bit on some ‘inside baseball’ currently happening in our local financial markets around the Derrimon $DTL.ja APO.

This is ‘dot connecting’ on corporate maneuvering.

Read below, there is a lot going on.

//Mini-Thread

#FinanceTwitterJa So let’s go back to the early days of 2013 when $DTL.ja initially went public.

The lead broker was Mayberry Investments at the time.

The listing was very successful and the offer closed within 3 minutes of opening.

jamaicaobserver.com/business/Overs…
Dec 16, 2020 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
This bill that Dr. Clarke introduced to, and got passed by, the House, basically gives all registered MSMEs (companies with annual revenues of $500M JMD or less), a tax credit on the first $1.5M of profits they earn.

//Mini-Thread

#FinanceTwitterJa In other words, if your company makes $10M revenue and $1.5M profit, you effectively pay no corporate income taxes.

The corporate tax rate is 25% for non-financial firms. $1.5M x 25% = $375,000.

This is a tax credit, so effectively GOJ pays the tax for you.
Dec 14, 2020 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
This article by @drnigelclarkeja is such an important article about the recent BOJ Amendments Act & establishing the Independent Fiscal Commission that I feel compelled to do a thread explaining some key components.

//Thread

#FinanceTwitterJa

jamaica-gleaner.com/article/commen… GOJ has prioritised 2 complementary institutional reforms: (i) Tabling legislation for the establishment of an Independent Fiscal Commission to strengthen JA’s Fiscal Responsibility Framework; and (ii) creation of an independent BOJ with an explicit mandate for price stability.
Sep 2, 2020 • 21 tweets • 7 min read
BREAKING: @CentralBankJA's F/X Sale of US$20M on Sept 1, 2020 only received US$7.8M in bids. In other words, of the total amount BOJ offered to sell to the market, the market only bought 39%.

boj.org.jm/uploads/news/b…

This is significant. I explain below.

#FinanceTwitterJa First a brief summary of how the F/X market works.

Every day, buyers & sellers (i.e. Financial Institutions including Cambios) buy & sell foreign exchange with each other.

BOJ has begun publishing this activity daily, for example:
Aug 30, 2020 • 19 tweets • 5 min read
Ok these two words uttered by Dr. Phillips need to be expounded on.

"DEFICIT FINANCING" is the act of allowing GOJ to spend more than they receive in taxes and then borrowing to pay for the difference.

This was the hallmark of the Omar Davies MoF.

britannica.com/topic/deficit-… Deficit Financing has been VERY, VERY destructive to Jamaica.

It can create a negative cycle that is very hard to break where GOJ has to keep borrowing to effectively pay off debt. We were stuck in that cycle for at least 1.5 - 2 decades.
Jun 7, 2020 • 24 tweets • 6 min read
In this presser the PM @AndrewHolnessJM addressed many absurd comments about the reopening decision and he made some good points.

The main point is about food, that a lot of people seem to not understand/appreciate.

IMPORTANT ⚠️

But first my thoughts on minor issues.

//Thread The most ridiculous comment I have seen floating around is that GOJ is reopening Tourism because of the donation that Sandals gave.

Firstly, that donation was $500K per constituency. It was given to all constituencies. Ie both parties. That didn’t just benefit GOJ.
Mar 10, 2020 • 44 tweets • 10 min read
In his opening budget speech, @DrNigelClarkeJa just recognized and acknowledged the tough decisions taken by Portia Simpson-Miller and Dr. Phillips along with the Bruce Golding Administration in our macroeconomic journey.

I love the intellectual honesty.

#FinanceTwitterJa Tourism has grown for 16 consecutive quarters.

Manufacturing has grown for 13 of the 16 quarters.
Feb 15, 2020 • 34 tweets • 7 min read
This is the true story whispered behind closed doors until now about JA's economic reform programme. Can't wait for Part 2.

So, for posterity, I am going to include choice quotes below for reference purposes.

#FinanceTwitterJa

ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/11/04/157…

//Thread More and more poorer Jamaicans were turning to crime, and wealthier, educated ones fled the country; a brain drain of epic proportions.

Only occasional dollops of aid from international development institutions kept the lights on. But by 2012 even they’d had enough.
Feb 11, 2020 • 23 tweets • 5 min read
I have been seeing a lot of comments and responses to this IC Insider article.

There are a few things I want to address, so thread time.

The first thing is that $TJH.ja represents a maturing of our equity markets.

//Thread

#FinanceTwitterJa

icinsider.com/trans-jamaican… $TJH.ja is the first asset being brought to market whose core business has both an inflation and JMD depreciation hedge built in, and it also has a damper against the effects of economic recession.

In other words, revenue & profits will not be meaningfully eroded by inflation..
Dec 12, 2019 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
“Jamaica’s Golden Window”.

What is it and how can it help you live a better life?

This idea has been germinating in my mind for months and I have been meaning to share here recently, but life has been hectic...apologies.

//A thread

#FinanceTwitterJa Note: this is a hypothesis that I have developed, so forgive me if it is a bit rough around the edges, or if others have said it more eloquently than I.

There very well may be economic theories to explain this more succinctly, but I don’t know of any so I came up with the name.
Nov 13, 2019 • 25 tweets • 6 min read
The IMF had their final press conference about Jamaica’s successful completion of the Precautionary Standby Agreement (PSBA).

I was invited to represent #FinanceTwitterJA

Here is my report (I got surprised, check it out below).

//Thread Firstly, this happened 😅 (press play) — I freaked out inside to be honest.

Thank you Dr. Ramakrishnan for such kind words. I appreciate it 🙏
Oct 22, 2019 • 25 tweets • 7 min read
Practical, Tactical Advice for How To Get Started Investing in JA when you have very little disposable income.

I got this question via DM today that I thought it was a great question that a lot of beginners have but perhaps are too afraid to ask.

//Thread.

#FinanceTwitterJa Question:

I try to save like at least 5,000 to 10,000 per mo. but I end up going into it because
1. The car may take it.
2. Little ones school may take it
3. Supermarket
This happens even though I make a budget. Just not able to stick to it for one reason or another.
Oct 21, 2019 • 24 tweets • 5 min read
My brief thoughts on the $JMMBGL.ja APO.

I went into much more detail with my class yesterday, so if you want access to the recording and the deck DM me.

I also discuss how this might (not) fit into your portfolio and other things to consider.

#FinanceTwitterJa

//Thread PLEASE NOTE: Speak to a licensed financial advisor. I am not giving you investment advice. I am just sharing my thoughts on both the prospectus for this offer and how I see the landscape.

Also read the prospectus for yourself 👇🏾👇🏾

jm.jmmb.com/jmmbgl-apo
Oct 8, 2019 • 25 tweets • 8 min read
Exciting News: TCP Tings (my company) is finally selling our ‘One Bag Ah Tings’ (and other) Tote Bags in a big box retailer, exclusively in Kingston at Fontana Waterloo ( $FTNA.ja ).

We have been working on this for months, so glad I can finally publicly share.

//Thread Tonight $FTNA.ja had an event to introduce their new Waterloo location.

So here is a thread with a few pics and the story about how we got into Waterloo and got the placement we got.