Is this a turning point?
Will what we are seeing on the streets over these past days and weeks turn into something bigger?
Is change possible?
Frankly, these are the wrong questions.
/1
Will what we are seeing on the streets over these past days and weeks turn into something bigger?
Is change possible?
Frankly, these are the wrong questions.
/1
I make no claim to be a world-leading expert. I am not a famous theorist, and my books don’t top the best-seller lists. But protest and mobilization are my thing: they’re what I research, what I teach, and mostly what I read and write about. And sometimes participate in.
/2
/2
When people see a movement kick off - when the streets are suddenly roiling, when people are angry and taking risks and posing challenges - people naturally want to know where it’s headed. Whether it’s likely to create real change. Whether it might be revolutionary.
/3
/3
The honest academic answer to that question is, we don’t know. As social scientists, we know quite a bit about how movements work, how they communicate, gather resources, get people to take risks, build alliances, and so on.
/4
/4
We can look at a given movement and say a lot about how it was built, and what challenges it faces going forward. We can see differences over time and geography in how people mobilize. Sometimes, we can map out barriers and opportunities. But that’s more or less it.
/5
/5
What we cannot do is look at a movement - especially at its genesis - and say anything about whether this is “the one”.
/6
/6
Partly, that’s because real change is always a non-linear process, one that upends the rational expectations of probability. But mostly it’s because social science isn’t particle physics.
/7
/7
What makes movements move is a complex mixture of grievances, perceptions, emotions, calculations and resources. The outcome is highly contingent.
But here’s the kicker: the outcome is highly contingent on YOU.
/8
But here’s the kicker: the outcome is highly contingent on YOU.
/8
Despite everything we know about the social structures, genetic factors and psychological patterns that shape people’s behavior, people at the end of the day still have free will. None of our probabilistic models will ever account for 100% of what YOU do.
/9
/9
We need to reframe the questions we as citizens ask at times like these.
Instead of asking if this is a turning point, ask if YOU are changing direction.
Instead of asking if this is the start of something bigger, ask what YOU will do tomorrow that you didn’t do today.
/END
Instead of asking if this is a turning point, ask if YOU are changing direction.
Instead of asking if this is the start of something bigger, ask what YOU will do tomorrow that you didn’t do today.
/END
