Thread by @cfishman

A single coronavirus update snapshot.

Florida.

FL got a lot of praise for how it handled nursing home cases (very well).

Florida pushed opening amid sneering from people who didn't understand its case spread.

Now?

Last 4 days: Most new cases of any 4-days in the pandemic.

2/ Just pause and let that sink in a minute.

Florida, which in fact avoided the disaster of New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts — Florida has now had the most new cases in the last 4 days of any 4 days in the whole outbreak.

3/ In fact, sadly and quietly, the pandemic is roaring back to life.

This is going to be more than one snapshot, I decided.

Two other large states are in big trouble — California and Texas.

4/ California managed the pandemic as well as any state.

Today, California is at the highest average number of new cases in the pandemic.

Not just the highest: Very high.

Average new cases:

• Today: 2,700

• May 8, start of reopening: 1,700

5/ Texas is in the same position as CA.

The last 5 days have seen the most new cases of any 5 days during the outbreak in TX.

TX is at its highest average number of new cases a day so far.

Average new cases in Texas:

• Today: 1,600

• April 20, start of reopening: 800

6/ Three other states also appear to be in significant coronavirus trouble.

Arizona:

--> most new cases in 5 days of any 5 days

--> Average new cases a day
• Now: 750
• May 1 reopen: 310

7/ North Carolina:

--> most new cases in 3 days of any 3 days

--> Average new cases a day
• Now: 1,000
• May 8 reopen: 420

8/ South Carolina:

--> most new cases in 3 days of any 3 days

--> Average new cases a day
• Now: 370
• May 1 reopen: 150

9/ That's 6 states that had moderate & well-controlled outbreaks during April & May, that are now experiencing rapid increases in cases that could signal community spread.

California & Texas are at their worst point in the pandemic.

They have the most people in the U.S.

10/ Florida is the 3rd largest state, filled with vulnerable population. It's not at the highest level of new cases — that was the first week in April.

But FL is close to that level.

More significantly, FL is at 1,100 new cases a day, almost double level at May 4 reopening.

11/ And Arizona, North Carolina & South Carolina — each not just at the worst moments of the pandemic in that state, but new cases double what they were at reopening for each state.

The pandemic is on fire in:

CA
TX
FL
NC
SC
AZ

12/ Maybe the health care system & the hospitals are ready.

Maybe we have enough masks, PPE, respirators.

Maybe the economy coming back will balance sickness and death.

13/ But also remember this: CDC Director Redfield said on April 21 that the fall outbreak could be worse than what we've seen this spring.

Those six states are already there.

washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04…

14/ Small side note:

What happened to the coronavirus update thread?
Why didn't I do it the last 3 weeks?

I truly love doing the thread. I'm a reporter. It keeps me in the middle of one of the most important stories there is.

But it takes 2 or 3 hours a day to do well.

15/ Like many other people, the pandemic has put all kinds of fresh calls on the day's schedule.

When there is work someone is paying for, that work takes priority.

But happy to step back in today.

There is urgent coronavirus news that is being overlooked.

16/ The protests are vital.

The may change the politics, economics and texture of the nation.

The coronavirus can change the politics, economics and texture of the nation, too — while doing a lot of damage.

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