My prior is that the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote *shrinks* as Biden's lead grows, and therefore would be smaller now, and gets wider as the race gets closer. Just how much idk
That's on the assumption that white voters--and perhaps especially northern whites without a degree, overrepresented in the battlegrounds--are relatively elastic and swing more than the nation as a whole. IMO, that checks out if you look at the tabs of national polls
If you take all the recent polls together, Biden's clearly made larger gains among white voters and particularly white voters without a degree since March/April than nonwhite voters or white col voters. If so, that would *tend* to attenuate his E.C. disadvantage, at least for now
