A related lesson, for me, is that Trump should be treated like an ordinary candidate for electoral-analysis purposes. He was not DOA in 2016 when the fundamentals said he should be competitive; he wasn't invincible in 2018 when GOP should struggle.
This is part of why I've been fairly optimistic about Trump's chances over the last few years: the pace of economic growth would make an ordinary incumbent favored to win reelection, and his approval ratings were not nearly so bad as to stop it.
But that's not so true anymore
But that's not so true anymore
I don't think it is at all clear that the typical incumbent president would be a favorite to win, at least if you stipulate that the public thought they had performed so poorly on coronavirus (an ordinary incumbent who handled it well probably would be a favorite)
Now, there's a ton of time for the political environment to veer back. The stock market could be interpreted as a salient signal on that front. No one would have predicted what's happened over the last few months; who knows what will happen next. But for now, it is what it is
