It's worth keeping issue salience in mind as we mull the deterioration in the president's standing, as well as his prospects for a comeback
Right now, the campaign focus is on coronavirus, criminal justice, protest, race relations, handling crises, etc.
These are not issues where the president has ever fared well in the polls, and as long as the campaign/public is focused on them, Trump is going to have a tough time
These are not issues where the president has ever fared well in the polls, and as long as the campaign/public is focused on them, Trump is going to have a tough time
Trump's relative strengths, right now, are not as relevant. He still does better on the economy, for instance, but that's under the radar. Among no col whites, I'd guess he's still strong on immigration. But these issues aren't salient right now.
With that in mind, I don't think it's terribly surprising that Trump's polls look quite mediocre among older voters and white no college voters, but look pretty ok among Hispanic voters. If this campaign focused on immigration for a few months, that might change quickly
And while it's easy enough to say that no one's views of Trump change, there's always been a big chunk of voters who have series of conflicting views: liking him on econ/immigration/'telling it how it is', disliking his personal conduct/health care plans/divisiveness, etc.
If you're thinking about what a Trump comeback would look like, I think a prerequisite would probably be a significant reordering of issue priorities and public debate to something that plays to his strengths
I'd guess that Team Trump just doesn't have a vision for how Trump is supposed to prevail in an election that's focused on 'how to fix coronavirus and bring America together,' if it's a referendum on Trump. That's just not what Trump brings to the table
I'd guess that Team Trump's vision, if it has one, would be to disqualify Biden, Clinton '16 style. But it is quite evident that, for now, Trump does not have any cards to play that might disqualify Biden and reduce him to a polarizing, unpopular, Clinton '16 type contender
This leaves Team Trump with a few options: improve his standing Americans on the issues that Americans are focused on right now; hope for changes in the news to refocus the debate to things where you're strong; or hope for serious Biden missteps/news that brings him down.
The first and second points here could plausibly go together. For instance, if COVID essentially went away it could both reduce its salience as an issue and could lead some voters to reconsider whether Trump did so bad on or it, or at least whether it was so bad as to matter
Ultimately, the big question is how can this campaign close with 1) Trump talking about things that got him over the top four years ago, and/or might get him in striking distance today; 2) voters focused on those issues. It's a long road from here, but a lot can happen in 5 mo.
