My recent paper on protests begins with a basic question: “How do stigmatized minorities advance agendas when confronted with hostile majorities?” There are at least two good reasons to think marginal groups have minimal influence in US politics. 1/ cambridge.org/core/journals/… 
The first argument is that elites dominate politics. Elite economic and political actors have way more influence as compared with everyday citizens. A wide range of evidence in political science supports this view. 2/
For example, two superb scholars look at many policy issues and find “mass-based interest groups and average citizens have little or no independent influence.” 3/ scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/…
The second argument is something like immovable prejudice. Groups like African Americans & people with disabilities or AIDS have been subject to far-reaching discrimination over many, many years. If the bigotry is deep-seated, then attempts at persuasion are likely to fail. 4/
For example, in 1967 Stokely Carmichael (later Kwame Ture) said ”Dr. King’s policy was, if you are nonviolent, if you suffer, your opponent will see your suffering and will be moved to change his heart…” 5/
”That's very good. He only made one fallacious assumption. In order for nonviolence to work, your opponent must have a conscience. The United States has none.” Carmichael’s pessimism about racist attitudes could be supported by centuries of hard-won evidence. 6/
My research on the 1960s, however, suggests that neither the elite model nor the immovable prejudice model can explain what we see in the data. In short, I find protests were able to dramatically move white opinion and policy in favor of prioritizing civil rights. 7/
In the plot above, we see both the number of civil rights protesters per month in the 1960s and the percentage of America saying “civil rights” is the most important problem in America. 8/
Notice how the green line representing public opinion on “civil rights” spikes along with the March on Washington for Jobs and Freedom. Within a year, the landmark 1964 Civil Rights Act was passed. 9/
The plot also shows protester activity & public opinion during the “Bloody Sunday” march in Selma. White supremacist violence was broadcast nationally. Polls showed immediate spike in concern about civil rights. Landmark 1965 Voting Right Act passed 5 months later. 10/
One big question is whether those same dynamics apply today? The media are more fragmented. Our politics are highly polarized. Perhaps the protest methods that worked in the 1960s won’t translate to the modern era. 11/
A new @ThePlumLineGS column looks at recent polling & analysis from @Nate_Cohn to evaluate protest effects. He finds “White voters are turning on Trump…Trump’s slippage is driven largely by his eroding support among white voters, particularly those said to be his base.” 12/
.@ThePlumLineGS continues, “Specifically, Cohn found that in an average of polls, Trump’s edge over Biden among non-college-educated white voters has slipped by 10 points.” 13/
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Further, @ThePlumLineGS notes, “There is a very large shift underway in how white voters view the issues underlying the protests.” 14/ washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
For example, among whites:
— 39% Trump’s approve of his handling of protests
— 57% disapprove of Trump’s approach to protests
— 69% support protests
— 68% say Floyd’s death reveals systemic police mistreatment of blacks (a 26-point shift since 2014) 15/
— 39% Trump’s approve of his handling of protests
— 57% disapprove of Trump’s approach to protests
— 69% support protests
— 68% say Floyd’s death reveals systemic police mistreatment of blacks (a 26-point shift since 2014) 15/
In sum, elites may dominate politics and bigotry is definitely durable but protests can help marginalized communities achieve what I call “punctuated pluralism.” 16/
Protest methods like disruption can temporarily push the concerns of stigmatized groups to forefront of media. By strategically changing the national conversation, activists can then influence majority public opinion and policy to better address their concerns. fin/
For a more detailed overview of my research on how 1960s protests influenced media, public opinion, legislation and voting, see this thread:
