Will the protests we have seen across the US create a spike in COVID cases?
This is a topic on which many have opinions. Below, some inputs, based on data we track...
This is a topic on which many have opinions. Below, some inputs, based on data we track...
The protests gained momentum around the final days of May, and curfews were put in place around June 1 in several cities, such as New York. Hence, given the usual lags due to incubation period and lags in testing process, we should not expect to see any impact before 10 days.
But we can look at data on 'socializing' based on data from cell phones as a leading indicator of positive tests. We like to look at data that quantifies 'encounters' per day between cell phone. Interestingly, we cannot see a big spike in encounters (blue line) during protests. 
The data from NY and LA county, which saw big protests, do not show any material pickup in 'encounters' during the protest period. And it is the same message for most cities with big protests. Philadelphia is another example, the blue line Mobility (=encounters) is pretty stable
We will continue to track the data, including at the county level. But based on the near real-time data we monitor on 'cell-phone encounters' it is not obvious that the protests will trigger a big spike in virus transmission by mid-June (the broader re-opening may matter more).
Maybe the additional socialization associated with the protests was negated by the rest of the population social distancing more in the areas in question (voluntarily or due to the curfews that came into effect).
I will leave it at that.
I will leave it at that.
