What would happen if there's a no-deal Brexit?
The threat is back... a Thread with @journosooz and @DeirdreHipwell 1/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The threat is back... a Thread with @journosooz and @DeirdreHipwell 1/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
* Manufacturing *
Carmakers like Nissan, with 6,500 workers in Sunderland, will face 10% tariff on exports to EU. They say their operation wouldn't be viable in that scenario 2/
bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Carmakers like Nissan, with 6,500 workers in Sunderland, will face 10% tariff on exports to EU. They say their operation wouldn't be viable in that scenario 2/
bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
Tariffs also a danger for firms like BMW (plant in Oxford) and Airbus (13,500 employees in Wales).
It would be a hammer blow to Britain's already fragile and virus-hit industrial base 3/
It would be a hammer blow to Britain's already fragile and virus-hit industrial base 3/
They also face a mountain of new paperwork, whether there's a deal or not.
~ 200m extra custom declarations will be needed annually on EU trade.
If trucks don't have right docs, they'll be stopped, causing lengthy queues and halting supply chains 4/
~ 200m extra custom declarations will be needed annually on EU trade.
If trucks don't have right docs, they'll be stopped, causing lengthy queues and halting supply chains 4/
Plus there's an acute shortage of trained customs professionals to handle all this extra paperwork.
The recruitment drive has been hurt by coronavirus 5/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
The recruitment drive has been hurt by coronavirus 5/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
* Retail *
Supermarkets face price increases under a no-deal Brexit.
80% of food they import comes from the EU, much of which will face new tariffs.
With slim margins in retail, cost rises likely to be passed on to consumer 6/
Supermarkets face price increases under a no-deal Brexit.
80% of food they import comes from the EU, much of which will face new tariffs.
With slim margins in retail, cost rises likely to be passed on to consumer 6/
They'll also be hit by new red tape.
Export health certificates will be needed to import animal products from the EU (about £100 per consignment), and they too will face the cost of customs declarations, as set out by @William_Bain and @the_brc 7/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Export health certificates will be needed to import animal products from the EU (about £100 per consignment), and they too will face the cost of customs declarations, as set out by @William_Bain and @the_brc 7/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
* Agriculture *
Farmers will face steep tariffs in a no-deal Brexit, making their products uncompetitive in the EU and flooding the domestic market with the surplus.
Prices would collapse, as would many farming livelihoods.
`A no-deal will be devastating' say @natsheep 8/
Farmers will face steep tariffs in a no-deal Brexit, making their products uncompetitive in the EU and flooding the domestic market with the surplus.
Prices would collapse, as would many farming livelihoods.
`A no-deal will be devastating' say @natsheep 8/
* Services *
80% of UK economy -- inc. accountancy, law, consulting -- and becomes harder to sell to the EU.
Prospect of visas for business travel + needing authorizations from an EU member state to offer a service there
Per @anandMenon1 @UKandEU 9/ bit.ly/3dROYaN
80% of UK economy -- inc. accountancy, law, consulting -- and becomes harder to sell to the EU.
Prospect of visas for business travel + needing authorizations from an EU member state to offer a service there
Per @anandMenon1 @UKandEU 9/ bit.ly/3dROYaN
* Finance *
Global banks have already set up new EU subsidiaries and will transfer more staff to the continent if the EU doesn't grant an equivalence decision 10/
Per @sabrush @virenvaghela bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Global banks have already set up new EU subsidiaries and will transfer more staff to the continent if the EU doesn't grant an equivalence decision 10/
Per @sabrush @virenvaghela bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
* Pharma *
Drugmakers will face higher costs in a no-deal Brexit, having to test their products in both the UK and EU.
Means less funds available for R&D, investment 11/
Drugmakers will face higher costs in a no-deal Brexit, having to test their products in both the UK and EU.
Means less funds available for R&D, investment 11/
* Northern Ireland *
Exports from GB to NI would need to pay tariffs, to be reclaimed later via a rebate system (extra bureaucracy and headache) 12/
Exports from GB to NI would need to pay tariffs, to be reclaimed later via a rebate system (extra bureaucracy and headache) 12/
Retailers in NI bringing in products from GB face new costs of export health certificates, customs docs.
`It is a make-or-break issue for Northern Ireland retailers,' says @MichaelAodhan. ‘We’re looking at business models becoming unviable' 13/
`It is a make-or-break issue for Northern Ireland retailers,' says @MichaelAodhan. ‘We’re looking at business models becoming unviable' 13/
In sum, it looks like adding a man-made economic shock to the natural disaster of the pandemic.
“For businesses, jobs and economic confidence in this most challenging of years, this would be a shocking outcome,” says @cbicarolyn at @CBItweets 14/
“For businesses, jobs and economic confidence in this most challenging of years, this would be a shocking outcome,” says @cbicarolyn at @CBItweets 14/
Meanwhile, the Brexit talks are at a stalemate, and no-deal looks like a very real prospect.
Either the UK or EU budge their positions, or else this is the outcome 15/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Either the UK or EU budge their positions, or else this is the outcome 15/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
And might the UK be willing to extend the talks, to give more time for a deal, or at least to let businesses recover from coronavirus?
No. The gov latest line is it would be `crazy' /ends
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
No. The gov latest line is it would be `crazy' /ends
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
