New Lancet article asks: Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity?
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
It would be very good news if the answer was yes, but unfortunately the authors’ answer is no.
They make three arguments, based on available data:
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
It would be very good news if the answer was yes, but unfortunately the authors’ answer is no.
They make three arguments, based on available data:
1st argument: Under herd immunity, the cumulative mortality rate due to COVID-19 per million of the population would be expected to plateau at roughly the same level in different countries.
This is very much not the case.
This is very much not the case.
2nd argument: the data shows that countries that went into lockdown early experienced fewer deaths in subsequent weeks.
This is consistent with lockdowns being responsible, but not with herd immunity being responsible (we would expect no correlation if it was herd immunity).
This is consistent with lockdowns being responsible, but not with herd immunity being responsible (we would expect no correlation if it was herd immunity).
3rd argument: the prevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 (’seroprevalence’) is correlated with the observed mortality rate from COVID-19.
(it indicates that disparate regions have experienced a similar mortality per infection – an IFR of 0.5–1.0%)
(it indicates that disparate regions have experienced a similar mortality per infection – an IFR of 0.5–1.0%)
