Thread by @Ak5985965

As #IndoChinaFaceoff plays out I am starting a thread to look at relative force levels, equipment and deficiencies Despite deficiencies I am 100% confident that Indian Armed Forces can deliver victory if given 'Full Freedom'

Lets start with Naval ASW Helicopters

1/n

ASW Helicopter req

3 Delhi Class, 3 Kolkatta Class, 3 Shivaliks, 3 B'putra @ 2 each = 24

6 Talwars, 2 Rajputs, 4 Kamortas @ 1 each = 12

Vikramaditya = 6

Total need = 42 bare minimum not including reserves, training, maintenance etc

Current 'flyable' holdings = 12- 15

2/n

This is a critical short coming. ASW capabilities are degraded. Surface operations, OTH Surveillance etc also hampered

Next is Naval utility heptrs. Bare minimum requirement at Sea = 40. Current flyable holdings = 20

3/n

Next is minesweepers

Requirement min 8 (3 each for Mumbai and Vizag and 2 for Karwar). Current holdings = 0

Next is attack submarines

Current servicible holdings are about 12 (3 Scorpenes, 1 Akula, 4 Kilos, 4 Sishumars). About 11-12 can sail out if there is war

4/n

Enough to be able to put pressure on Chinese Sea Lines of communications via Malacca straits and other IOR choke points

A word about our SSBNs:

Suffice to say that our 24/7 sea based deterrent with adequate reach of missiles (not only 700 km) is FULLY OPERATIONAL

5/n

Lets look at Land Forces next

Indian Army has about 10 Divs against China. About 200,000 - 220,000 troops incl armour,arty, Engrs

Our formations (Brigades, Divisions and Corps) are based in the theatre close to LAC, troops acclimatised, trained, ready

5/n

China can deploy 175,000-200,000

But are at disadvantage. Their Western Theatre is huge, most troops based 1000- 1500 kms away from LAC. Plus Xinjiang ,Tibet need significant forces for IS duties for which there are special Military Districts
belfercenter.org/publication/st…

6/n

I estimate separating troops of Xinxiang & Lhasa Mil Districts from those of Western Theatre Command, there are about 150,000 troops for India at the Maximum. So India does have a significant advantage in numbers, short lines of communication, battle hardened troops

7/n

We are however weaker in some equipment

1. Most of Chinese Infantry is mechanised and motorised. This is not an advantage in all sectors of LAC but in some

2. They have light tanks and all terrain vehicles for troop movement, quick ingress, fire support to infantry, recce

8/n

3. Less said about INSAS and INSAS LMG the better

4. Arty is difficult to analyse. According to Wiki they have about 1200 towed guns of which 500 are obsolete 122 mm based on Russian D30. Our ULH, Dhanush are better than their best guns but too few to make any difference

9/n

Just over 1 Regt of M777 ULH and 1 Regt of Dhanush has been inducted. And we have a very active LOC where they are they needed

So in tube arty we have parity

In SP and Rocket Arty they are significantly ahead in numbers. IA Pinaka, Smerch holdings are just 3 Regts each

10/n

Lets look at IAF vs PAF now

IAF has 370 top line air superiority, multi role a/c = 110 Mig 29 + Mirage 2000s + 260 Su 30 MKIs

Plus 50 Mig 21 Bisons and 100 Jaguars. A total of 510-520

Against this China has greater number numbers about 1400 odd a/c

11/n

Of these about 700-800 odd are current and come close to or are equivalent to 350 Indian top line a/c

It is estimated that Western Theatre Command (India + Russia) has about 100-110 4th Gen compared to about 120 comparable a/c solely directed at China

12/n

Clearly both countries can surge more from other theatres. In India's case it is certainly possible to surge 200-225 odd a/c vs China keeping the rest against Pakistan. How many China can surge depends upon the posture they need to keep against Russia and Eastern Theatre

13/n

Even if they can surge, their is a significant bottle neck. They have only a few air fields in Ladakh and it would be difficult to base a large force there. In addition a/c could take off with only 50% of their combat loads due to high altitude. The only way to bridge this

14/n

is via refullers that can refuell a/c taking off from deep inside China. But they have only 15 refuellers in all

PLAAF has not combat experience, and their training and yuddh kaushal are not highly thought off

15/n

*Tibet not Ladakh

IAF on the other hand has several airfields in plains close to LAC, a/c can take off with full loads, logistics lines are short and a/c can be inducted from other sectors more easily. IAF pilots have distinguished themselves in combat and international exercises

16/n

They are able to operate both with AWACs/tower direction and independently unlike Chinese pilots

IAF does have some significant equipment shortages apart from fighters

1. Refeullers - just 6 old Russian a/c
2. Only 3 AWACs and 2 AEW a/c

Refueller shortage means

17/n

its difficult to fully optimise a/c across theatres (Western to Eastern)

AWACs shortage means enemy cannot be detected in advance and attacks headed off. More a/c are needed in defensive roles

Taking everything into account, at the minimum IAF has parity with PLAAF

18/n

To conclude, India is in a much better position against China than most commentators appreciate. I estimate atleast parity. With proactive strategy and innovative operational art India can inflict defeat on China. This would severely hurt Chinas reputation as a power

19/n

China knows this and therefore may not go Kinetic at this time. They know India's track record on military modernisation is abysmal. All indications are this wont improve

So they might want to wait for another 5-10 years till military balance shifts decisively in their favour