I asked about:
R0 or case growth
Long term Effects
Cases will decline in the NE but overall stay at 20k/day plus.2/
Most states that haven’t had community spread are considered more lucky than good.
Many of the ones with high R0, the “rabbits” from yesterday are “low imagination” states: if it hasn’t happened here, how do I know it’s real?
Bottom line, they should make the disease less fatal that when this thing ran through Italy and NY.
And it stands to reason that with less overwhelmed staff, more PPE, more resources, and more knowledge, we will see more survivors.
Early therapies however didn’t sound promising yet.
Bottom line 30,000 new cases in June are better than 30,000 in April.
It feels like a push to a 2 tiered society of young healthy people living their lives VS cashiers, nurses, ppl w high blood pressure, cancer, or older. Even middle aged older being careful.
They crushed the virus quickly by pulling together.
The @CDCgov must do a better job here of reporting out what’s going on. The implications also make a vaccine more complicated. Will explain.
Right now we’re doubling every 2 months or so. So immunity could be 10-15% by the end of the summer.
10-15% immunity and let’s say there are some who are not susceptible to infection. True of other Coronaviruses & there’s some cross immunity.
Either way we would catch up to better performing countries and begin to crush the virus at .6.
That’s why the Phase 3 trial & time are important.
If we’re in the middle of a big wave & essential workers & health care workers are at risk, it might make limited sense.