(1/6)
That conversion of the #GDR GHIF convertible bond has commenced should come as no surprise to anyone because its existence was clearly sign posted in the 5th May placing announcement.
What is interesting is the conversion price and the cash payment.
5th May RNS ;
(2/6)
"$2.0 million of the GHIF Bond can be converted at 28.75p and the remainder at 150p at GHIF's discretion"
$2m @ $1.27 and 28.75p = 5.48m shares.
$6m @ $1.27 and 150p = 3.15m shares.
Total = 8.63m + interest accrued.
(3/6)
Today's RNS states the full $9.46m (bond + interest accrued), has been converted for 7.1m shares and £685k in cash.
$9.46m @ $1.27 = £7.45m
Deduct the £685k cash payment and its 7.1m new shares at 95.3p a share.
(4/6)
So investors have actually saved 1.53m shares + those shares which would have been issued for the interest not paid in cash.
At $1.46m total interest @ $1.27 = £1.15m - £685k = £464,600.
At conversion price of 95.3p = 488k new shares.
So total saving c. 2m shares.
(5/6)
For GDR to go on and successfully build itself out, be it through Covid test sales or its AIHL test, this convertible loan had to be accounted for, be it as debt or converted.
What we see today is that inevitable conversion but for 2m less shares than previously priced in.
(6/6)
I like GDR as a business and I think their Covid and AIHL tests will do very well.
The AIHL test alone in 2021 can deliver a stronger valuation than we see today.
Today's conversion is a step along the way with debt levels now reduced and interest no long accruing.
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1/16
I've been doing some detailed research on #STX and found something important.
With scrips growth now back on track and net pricing expanding the 2 biggest risks I could find were working capital to breakeven and a covenant breach on the SWK financing.
2/ The $5.7m AOP Milestone Monetisation + the $10m Sallyport invoice factoring facility are stated by the broker as delivering them to +cash flows by H2 2025.
The same message is coming from the company although I could imagine a small amount of additional equity in 2025.
3/ The numbers say this would be small (c. $5m) and could well be in the form of a further expansion to the Sallport facility as expanding revenues allow it.
That then leaves the SWK finance covenants.
They are based on quarterly rolling group revenues up until Q2 2025.
1/16
It's difficult to call this market but my view is that assuming no more operational glitches #TGR now steadily re-rates as the operations sign off the various stages to 30ktpa.
2/ Front-end valuations should depend on where graphite prices go but as Syrah demonstrated yesterday (graphite fines not large flake) orders are buoyant.
Forward orders there running at 90,000 tons which are 50% of their current yearly output. So substantial.
3/ Note also Syrah cannot produce for less than FOB C1 $543/t even at 15,000 tons per month output and that's fines.
It is clear after last night's presentation that TGR C1 costs have also risen but this is to be expected in this current market.
1/12
Here are Verde Agritech's expected sales targets for 2022 which were revised in May and offer a significant read across to #HMI and what it can achieve this year and also.
1/9 In a previous #HMI thread, I highlighted that the $600k write-down in the FY2021 accounts meant that trade debtors (so effectively trade receivables) almost doubled between YE 2020 and YE 2021.
1/18
I've been running an extensive exercise on Verde Agritech also a relatively new but expanding fertiliser producer based just c. 70km from #HMI in Minas Gervais in Brazil. The results to date are rather fascinating and certainly worthy of review.
2/ Verde is a TSX-listed producer with a current plant capacity nearly double the size of HMI (0.6Mtpy) but with a phase 2 expansion due to come online in 2023 which would take output to 2.4Mtpy.
So a much bigger operation to come and soon.
3/ Those that remember my 5th July numbers on #HMI sales prices will perhaps remember that they demonstrated a $53.20/t average sale price for 2021.
At the average achieved AUD/BRL for 2021 of 4.054, this equated to an average price of BRL216.