⚠️Another troubling worry confirmed: 14 day quarantine maybe not enough. So 640 Fort Benning army recruits entered a 14 day quarantine after 636 testing negative. Started 8 days training, then retested day 22 for #COVID19: whopping 142 or 22% positive! 🧵 connectingvets.radio.com/articles/fort-…
2) “All 142 COVID-positive individuals were isolated or quarantined according to guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The majority were asymptomatic and none have been hospitalized.”
3) Fort Benning public affairs did not provide any additional information regarding how it believes this post-screening COVID-19 outbreak occurred or whether any additional mitigation efforts were being implemented as a result. Contact tracing underway.
4) Now, few things about testing first before we get to 14 day incubation: 📌Tests are not good before ~day 5. So first few days virus can evade test. 📌Test sensitivity is also not perfect - it varies but usually 70-95% depending which/when/how. So tests imperfect- 🦠 can evade.
5) But another biggest neglected issue is INCUBATION TIME (infection to symptom) is often much longer than 14 days that quarantine is trying to cull out infection illness symptoms. 1%-12% of all cases can exceed 14 days! I was worried in my April 🧵 below:
6) And finally, we’re becoming more and more aware of pre-/asymptomatic cases are quite common. Here is my earlier thread on this topic where almost half of cases can be such. Among Navy carrier USS Teddy Roosevelt sailors, it was even 60% asymptomatic!
7) BOTTOMLINE: This Fort Benning Army recruit saga just further highlights the problem of epidemic management of this pandemic, even w/ testing at baseline & quarantine. The many ways at which virus can evade detection shows we must be vigilant - so please everyone wear masks! 🙏
