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The population of the US is 330 million
The population of the EU is 446 million

[source ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-…]
And the USA in comparison with several European countries which successfully bent the curve.
The US also had the advantage of having a later outbreak than all of them.

[in our Explorer you can compare with all countries in the world ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…]
And these big differences are not because the US is testing more extensively.
The opposite is the case: the positivity rate in the US is higher than in all of these countries.

[Source ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…]
Here is how the death rates compare. Shown is the average over the last week.

Because deaths are following cases I’d expect that after the recent divergence in case rates we’ll see divergence in death rates in the weeks ahead.

[source: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…]
If you want to look at the data in other ways you find it all in the Data Explorer here: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…

This is comparison of the death rate from confirmed COVID-19 deaths in the EU and the US.

In both regions the rate is falling. The rate at which people in the US are dying is currently 5-times higher than in the EU.

[the interactive chart ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…]
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
New Lancet article asks: Have deaths from COVID-19 in Europe plateaued due to herd immunity?
thelancet.com/journals/lance…

It would be very good news if the answer was yes, but unfortunately the authors’ answer is no.

They make three arguments, based on available data:
1st argument: Under herd immunity, the cumulative mortality rate due to COVID-19 per million of the population would be expected to plateau at roughly the same level in different countries.

This is very much not the case.
2nd argument: the data shows that countries that went into lockdown early experienced fewer deaths in subsequent weeks.

This is consistent with lockdowns being responsible, but not with herd immunity being responsible (we would expect no correlation if it was herd immunity).
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
There was no difference in the speed of the outbreak between Italy and the US.
The difference – which is leading to the rapidly rising death toll in the US – is that European countries achieved a much faster decline of the outbreak.

[source ourworldindata.org/coronavirus]
Here is a comparison between the US and many European countries. All in per capita terms.

[direct link to this chart ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…]
I see people saying the US is appearing worse because they do more extensive testing. No, this is not the case.

Here is the latest testing data relative to the size of the outbreak. Except for Sweden, Western Europe does better than the US.

[Source ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-te…]
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Max Roser
@MaxCRoser
Three charts on why I think we are still in the early days of the pandemic and why I'm very pessimistic about the coming months.

1/ The number of daily new cases is rising continuously in many large countries.

[Source ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…]
2/ Confirmed cases are a fraction of total cases. Wide testing is required to confirm a large share of total cases.

But these – and many other countries – do not test very widely; the share of tests that are positive is very high.

[Source and world map
ourworldindata.org/grapher/positi…]
3/ These countries – like many others – see confirmed cases rise despite being in lockdowns.

Lockdowns are very costly, socially and economically, and cannot remain for a very long time; especially in poor countries.

[Source: ourworldindata.org/grapher/govern…]
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