Thread by @faisalislam

US Trade Representative Lighthizer tells Ways and Means Committee @replloyddoggett its “almost impossible” any UK-US trade deal could be brought for Congressional approval before the US election in Nov... and possible though unlikely that there would be any agreement in that time

But @USTR Lighthizer extremely interesting on a variety of issues touching on UK trade deal... said there was a long long way to go - best case end of next week they might have 2 chapters out of 32 in trade deal. On the upside he thinks a deal will be down, but question is “when”

US Trade Rep: Some agricultural issues “the US & US Congress would not accept in a trade deal & if they [the UK] insist on those then we will have to push this off until they don’t”...“one thing for sure we’re not going to be in a position where our farmers aren’t treated fairly”

Which is the US Trade Rep pretty clearly saying that whatever is current on table in private negotiations as regards UK safeguards on US farm imports is enough to delay a trade deal indefinitely, and will have to be dropped, if a deal is to be done...

USTR - in second round “hasn’t been an enormous amount that has happened yet... anticipates 32 chapters - maximum 2 done if at all by end of week - so detail on the speed of lack thereof...

**** V Significantly
US Trade representative doesnt seem to believe his UK counterparts that they are willing to “go with us without going with Europe” & while he’ll act on that basis “the reality” is UK has “more than twice as big a relationship” with the EU than the US...
1/2

** also Significant

in reply to q about whether UK stays close to EU regulatory orbit

“..their negotiations with the EU will be crucial to us... their view is that they can deal with each of us separately....”

***
“It’s difficult to do these two negotiations at the same time”

So Pres Trump’s Trade Rep hears directly from UK negotiators that they want to leave EU’s regulatory orbit in order to do cleaner deal with him, but as “pragmatist” & “realist” on UK need for close EU ties, he appears sceptical, and is waiting for what UK actually does with EU..

Good Friday Agreement/ Irish land border “not something on which we are going to have a negotiation” says US Trade Rep Lighthizer, says President and Congress agrees, and tho primarily EU-UK issue, suggests might touch UK-US negotiations. (Rep asked for it to be a condition)

First time I’ve heard that PResident Trump would not allow a UK-US trade deal if it somehow interfered with the GFA or led to an Irish land border... not sure in practice what this refers to - perhaps a fear UK might renege on NI protocol in a no trade deal situation.

“We’ll either have fair access for US agriculture or we wont have a deal” says Lighthizer re both UK and EU saying European standards that suggest US food unsafe are “thinly veiled protectionism” against US agriculture - says SPS issues will be “v difficult” with UK

This shows some of the thinking in Congress, Republican @RepHolding suggesting that a US-UK trade deal could become a “gold standard” to tear down barriers for the US in other trade deals, eg with the EU

Indeed far from cutting trade barriers with UK - Lighthizer told @RepLloydDoggett on digital tax other nations (incl UK) had come together to “screw America” at OECD, and he’d be recommending Trump levy Section 301 tariffs vs countries which proceeded. NB UK has begun collecting.

And for good measure Lighthizer says he just doesnt think its possible to negotiate a major trade deal on video link or the telephone, without face to face meetings for hours in a room to force compromise...