Thread by @PAlearner

Here is data for Pre-Expiry trade . That is Wednesday to Thursday.

This data is important because if nifty opened Flat OTM as well as ATM option premium melts 35-40% in the opening it self . Far OTM premiums will get zero in the opening .

Data Analysed for 623 weeks .

623 Weeks is 12 years data .

Again focus on light blue area . I am considering +& -0.5% gap up or gap down as flat opening as per my previous experience. it may vary person to person.

why this data is important . see next .

As per data Nifty opened flat 81% of time . That meant 81% of time premium erode 40% in the opening itself .

If we develop option strategy which can handle 1-2% gap easily , then we can mint some money here in every expiry .

Here also big RISK is GAP UP or GAP DOWN beyond 2%

As per my experience , premiums up to 9-10 Rs on wednesday closing will get zero on thursday morning if Nifty open flat and VIX remains constant .

Selling Premiums up to 9 rs and buying premiums up to 2 Rs for hedging will be good strategy here .

Before initiating this strategy please buy first and then sell .
some brokers like zerodha doesnt allow to buy far OTM option . This is very important for hedge .

Enter on Wednesday after 15:00 Hrs and Exit on Thursday morning once all premiums eroded .

On thursday exit only option sold on wednesday , option bought keep open till 15:00 hrs , some times if market went directional on thursday it will give jackpot returns .
Last thursday it given good returns .

Following data is for thursday . Thursday expiry trading . Again 12 years data .

50% of time market remains flat that is in the range of +&- 0.5% . These 50% days are straddle and strangle days .

On other 50% days market went directional more than 1% to 5% move. on these days straddle and strangle players will lost huge if they didnt controlled the risk .

Create Bull put spread or bear call spread or ratio spread on these days .

Thread ends here . Thanks . Good luck