Every week, I along with other researchers/modelers gather in a conference call to discuss the current state of forecasting, give presentations, and share ideas.
One group always absent? IHME.
They are not representative of the scientific community.
One group always absent? IHME.
They are not representative of the scientific community.
While the senior leadership at IHME declines to participate in these collaborative efforts, they frequently have time to appear on national television, give press conferences, and speak to the media.
It's clear where their priorities lie.
It's clear where their priorities lie.
Because of IHME's massive media influence, their past projections have had detrimental consequences.
Experts had been projecting 100-240k deaths since March. Instead, throughout April, all we've heard was "influential model revises projections to 60-70k deaths by August".
Experts had been projecting 100-240k deaths since March. Instead, throughout April, all we've heard was "influential model revises projections to 60-70k deaths by August".
April was the most critical period of this epidemic, as it allowed states to set the tone for what the next several months will be like.
Setting an expectation that deaths will go to 0 by June hurt public perception and led to an increased mistrust of the scientific community.
Setting an expectation that deaths will go to 0 by June hurt public perception and led to an increased mistrust of the scientific community.
Scientists often cannot control the media narrative because they are too busy with their research to be constantly in the media spotlight.
Those who are constantly in the media spotlight are rarely doing first-hand scientific research.
Therein lies the problem.
Those who are constantly in the media spotlight are rarely doing first-hand scientific research.
Therein lies the problem.
I highly encourage the media to recognize this source of bias and avoid an over-reliance of easily-accessible resources.
Do the research, interview the experts, get a range of opinions, and fact-check everything.
True science rarely comes in the form of a press release.
Do the research, interview the experts, get a range of opinions, and fact-check everything.
True science rarely comes in the form of a press release.
Just two months ago, IHME forecasted 0 deaths by today. Yet, media continues to report on their forecasts 3 months out.
To frame a "second wave beginning September 15" as anything other than a mere guess is extremely irresponsible. It's fear mongering.
To frame a "second wave beginning September 15" as anything other than a mere guess is extremely irresponsible. It's fear mongering.
The University of Washington is an amazing academic institution with a lot of world-class researchers.
It's unfortunate that their name has been extensively associated to gain legitimacy
Here's an actual list of UW COVID-19 experts, made for journalists: washington.edu/news/for-journ…
It's unfortunate that their name has been extensively associated to gain legitimacy
Here's an actual list of UW COVID-19 experts, made for journalists: washington.edu/news/for-journ…
There are numerous groups that have built solid, scientifically-sound models over the past few months. I've learned a lot from their work, but the public rarely hears about them.
Let's change that.
The COVID-19 Forecast Hub is a good place to start: covid19forecasthub.org
Let's change that.
The COVID-19 Forecast Hub is a good place to start: covid19forecasthub.org
