Awake at 2am thinking about COVID-19 again…
I swear if I hear “herd immunity” one more time as a strategy, I’m gonna lose it.
Herd immunity means ~10 million deaths in the US alone.
If you are totes okay w/ >3,000 preventable 9/11s, well then I don’t know what to say to you.
I swear if I hear “herd immunity” one more time as a strategy, I’m gonna lose it.
Herd immunity means ~10 million deaths in the US alone.
If you are totes okay w/ >3,000 preventable 9/11s, well then I don’t know what to say to you.
Where’d I get 10 million? Back-of-the-envelope calculation with references:
1. Herd immunity = 70% of pop infected and recovered. 70% of the US pop is more than 200 million people. mayoclinic.org/diseases-condi…
1. Herd immunity = 70% of pop infected and recovered. 70% of the US pop is more than 200 million people. mayoclinic.org/diseases-condi…
(And that’s assuming people who’ve recovered from COVID-19 retain long-lasting immunity, and we don’t know yet if that’s the case.)
livescience.com/covid-19-immun…
livescience.com/covid-19-immun…
2. Some of those 200 million will have mild symptoms, but others will be severe and there can be long-lasting health problems. I’ve noticed people tend to gloss over this part when they talk about herd immunity. vox.com/2020/5/8/21251…
3. Death rate is a tricky one, but it looks like ~5% of confirmed cases result in death in the US. 5% of 200 million is 10 million. coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality
(Yes, 5% may turn out to be an overestimate, but remember that hospitals will be overwhelmed in this scenario.)
(Yes, 5% may turn out to be an overestimate, but remember that hospitals will be overwhelmed in this scenario.)
Now that that’s out of my system I’m gonna look at some literally otherworldly sunsets and try to sleep again. https://t.co/xsCRyOoV7O
