If a university in England with 10,000 students resumed in person teaching today, we can expect that 6 students would be Covid-19 infected, 4 of whom would be unaware of this fact. 1/8
Esp if not wearing good face masks, these 4 would place many others at risk by attending classes in enclosed rooms, esp if lacking good ventilation. Even with 2m distancing, they'd place others at risk via aerosol transmission throughout room. See👇. 2/8
Many of these classrooms will include someone whom the UK government rates as "at greatest risk of severe illness and mortality from Covid-19", because over 50 or with underlying co-morbidities👇. 3/8
Sources for my figures in 1/👆. The ONS estimates that 33,000 in England are currently infected. Population of England = 56 mn. So one out of 1,700 currently infected. 10,000 students divided by 1,700 = 6 …. 4/8
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
…and, as @Keir_Starmer noted in PMQs, testing & contract tracing is now failing to reach 2/3rds of those infected👇. Hence 4 of 6 infected students would be unaware that they're infected. 5/8
Note that rate of infection among young adults 20-49 is higher than among others in England👇 (though we lack breakdown of ages 18-to-late-20s of undergrads & postgrads). Hence, perhaps more than 6 in 10,000 students will be infected. 6/8
ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpe…
ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpe…
See this excellent thread on different rates of infection by age👇, which discusses the fall in the median age of those who test positive for coronavirus in the US. 7/8
And see also these tweets on a recent piece by @erinbromage on the significance of age-based considerations to the re-opening of university campuses in the autumn. 8/8
PS: Latest @ONS estimate👇is 51,000 infected in England, or 1 in 1,100. So 9 is now the expected number of students infected in a population of 10,000, 6 of whom would not be aware of their infection.
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…
So, if all UK universities re-opened tomorrow, we could expect about 2,200 to be infected (2.38mn/1,100), about 1,500 of whom would be unaware of their infection. Lots of people placed at risk in classrooms.
Though healthy, fit students in their early 20s are at less risk, the effects of coronavirus infection can still be devastating for them. From an article entitled ‘I had the coronavirus months ago but I’m still too ill to work... or even watch TV'👇.
thetimes.co.uk/article/i-had-…
thetimes.co.uk/article/i-had-…
Now that the Health Secretary is no longer willing to commit to a test & trace app by September👇, we can't expect much of an improvement in current test & trace practices between now and September.
itv.com/news/2020-06-2…
itv.com/news/2020-06-2…
In the absence of such improvement, we shouldn't anticipate a decrease in the overall level of infections over the summer, especially given impending easings of lockdown.
So @UniversitiesUK can anticipate that, if campuses reopen in September, there will be about 1,500 students attending classes while unaware of the fact that they are infected with Covid-19.
Will @UniversitiesUK employers provide the PPE & air filtration & ventilation to ensure that nobody dies or suffers serious & lasting debilitation as the result of the re-opening of classrooms?
If they won't, then they need to let us know how great an expected number of deaths & serious illnesses they regard as an acceptable price of teaching in person rather than online in the autumn.
Harvard's teaching will be mainly online, not in person. Health & safety concerns figure prominently among their reasons why. Their decision is less clouded by financial pressure than that of many other universities. Thread👇.
Re risk to young, a distressing @TheLancet article👇: confirmation of acute myocarditis (inflammation of heart, typically viral cause, most often affects young) in 16-yr-old boy with no known health conditions who had symptoms typical of a heart attack.
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
In this thread I ask what we could expect if universities re-open today. Will things be much better when campuses re-open in September? @IndependentSage points to evidence👇that they won't.
Re👇I now see that "Hence 4 of 6 infected students would be unaware that they're infected" was an invalid inference I drew from @Keir_Starmer's statement. 1/
Some of these 4 would probably be identified & asked to self-isolate under the current track, trace & isolate system. See this exchange w @philjvtaylor, which ends here👇. (I also agree w Phil that @Keir_Starmer's statement was misleading.) 2/2
