So, the Russians paid the Afghan Taliban to do what the group & its affiliates were bent on doing anyway? It was apparent some time ago that Moscow was supporting the Af Taliban at a tactical level (at least since 2014/5). 1/n
nytimes.com/2020/06/26/us/…
nytimes.com/2020/06/26/us/…
The publicly stated reason was to counter ISKP. But, it was apparent to anyone following the situation on the ground that this was a multi-purpose engagement. Af Taliban factions used Russian money not just to target ISKP, but also ANSDF & ANP, & the most prized — Americans. 2/n
Russians weren’t the only one paying them for this purpose. Iran & Pakistan were/are active sponsors (as well known). But, I won’t be surprised if the MSS (Beijing) too got it’s hands covertly dirty at select moments (esp when QCG was a ‘thing’). 3/n
On the ques of ‘bounties’: A routine modus operandi in Af. Almost every regional int. agency uses this time-tested method to counter its rivals in Af. What might be more interesting is to see if these ‘bounties’ were targeted at specific US troops (or were generic). 4/n
If targeted, then we are looking at a more complex picture and a multi-layered motivation-system. If not, then it’s likely to be classic realpolitik on Moscow’s part. Similar to what the US did against the Soviets in the 1980s. But much less ambitious. 5/n
Given the terrain, D.C.’s urgency to leave Af, & state of US-Russia reln, I would have been surprised had Moscow NOT engaged in such activities. For, unlike what NYT calls a serious ‘escalation’, hurting the US a lil more in Af is least escalatory from Russian perspective 6/n
