Thread by @MacroTechnicals

MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 28Jun20 recap wk26 / focus wk27 thread 1/n

Headlines
• CV19 2.0 2nd wave fear

• trade war (again)

• Biden-Trump Gap ...(Warren as Sec of Treasury?)

• stocks exhaustion (after +45/+55% rally)

• = RiskOFF Momentum

starting with the biggest headlines... CV19 2nd wave, especially in US

CV19 and the underlying conditions... what scientists start to understand more

Macro last week:

Central Banks action:

• Mexico cut 50bp to 5%
• Philippines cut 50bp to 2.25%
• Hungary cut 15bp to 0.9%

Liquidity and economic concerns continue

US jobless claims came down further, but disappointing momentum

University of Michigan came slightly weaker than expected

US MBA rates fell to all time low 3.3%

Citi Economic Surprise Index US came off a bit from 168.2 to 162.1

... (what low basis previously to see this kind of jump ?)

ICYMI - Canada average weekly earnings jumped to +9.11%

German IFO

• Expectations 91.4 (87.0) 80.1
• Sentiment 86.2 (85.0) 79.7
• Current 81.3 (84.0) 78.9

• all further improving
• Gap between Exp-Curr huge
• current came less than exp

here is the German "business clock" = recession, but on the right recovery path

TECHNICALS last week:

• classic RiskOFF
• credit risk spread widening
• stocks slammed
• safe haven bid
• bonds up, gold new 52wk high, $GDX $SLVP

update on global markets cross as of wk26

• 4wk performance
• YTD
• momentum/trend/exhaustion scores

BONDS

global 10Y govt heatmap with a massive bond rally

most interesting momentum : US bond bull flattening last week. seems all yields maturities "broke" their recent consolidation period... if so, it would reflect bond market is more concerned about the economic recovery

front part of the US interest rate curve is anyway still concerned about the economic recovery until 2022...and the FED impressed this by "not even thinking about hiking rates" ... but there is a tiny curve inversion

US long bond technicals:

"knock knock"

"who is there ?"

Credit Spreads Indices widened too

which leaves again a sort of gap between CDX / SPX "model" ...

hence, this week's headlines reflected in further elevated expected volatility : $VIX + curve

US stock market breadth update

falling faster than someone thought

NYA Advance-Decline cumulative volume

leading $NDX showed signs of fatigue, still in this bull channel, but produced an ugly weekly candle.

the outperformance of $NDX vs $SPX since 2016 sample is parabolic

and the ratio $NDX vs $RTY is also breathtaking... this trend is obviously still intact and shows no signs of a top or reversal. Hence bulls are pounding.

US stocks heatmap last week

NEXT WEEK FOCUS:

European Business and Consumer Confidence for June

this will go up and improve further with re-opening.

July 1st

Manufacturing PMIs

should improve further but many still in contracting mode

July 3rd

Services PMIs

same, should further improve and many still in contraction mode

US surveys results next week

• Dallas Fed
• Chicago PMI
• Markit M.PMI
• ISM

• Consumer Confidence

all of the surveys I would expect to go up

also next shortened week due to independence day

US employment situation

• NFP already on Thursday and is expected to show 3mln "new" jobs... we have seen this movie last month (how it's being calculated) and expect a yuuuge Trump tweet

• focus on Unemployment Rates

perhaps also interesting could be the release of US cars & trucks sales to show how the economy is really getting back on its feet

last but not least

/end

have a fantastic remaining weekend, good luck for a monster volatile week ahead

PEACE ! x

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