What Joe conveniently isn't mentioning is that it doesn't matter if they were direct market buys.
The $BTC getting locked up on $GBTC are not redeemable so they're effectively locked/off the market.
More coins going off the market than are being mined.
The $BTC getting locked up on $GBTC are not redeemable so they're effectively locked/off the market.
More coins going off the market than are being mined.
There are a couple of different scenario's here:
1. People send money to Grayscale, Grayscale buys them. According to the Messari research this is ~30% of coins mined after the halving
2. OGs/Funds send their coins to GBTC to take advantage of the premium. This has 6 month lockup
1. People send money to Grayscale, Grayscale buys them. According to the Messari research this is ~30% of coins mined after the halving
2. OGs/Funds send their coins to GBTC to take advantage of the premium. This has 6 month lockup
2.a. OGs/Funds are happy with the shares and don't buy new coins.
2.b. OGs/Funds dump the shares after 6 months when the lockup period expires if there's a premium and rebuy BTC.
2.b. OGs/Funds dump the shares after 6 months when the lockup period expires if there's a premium and rebuy BTC.
2.b.1. the full amount so they increase their BTC stash by the premium they got. (example: lock 1000 btc, dump for 10% premium, rebuy 1100 btc) and maybe repeat this process if they're convinced they get a premium again.
2.b.2. the same amount of BTC and keep premium in cash.
2.b.2. the same amount of BTC and keep premium in cash.
If you're talking about fundamentals here, either way you look at it more #Bitcoin gets locked up and there's (at least at the moment) no way that those $BTC can hit the market again.
Also the people buying $GBTC are not likely to buy actual Bitcoin with that money.
Also the people buying $GBTC are not likely to buy actual Bitcoin with that money.
Will they eventually make it redeemable for $BTC? Considering Grayscale actually gets a management fee... why would they? It's their money maker.
