Whisper it quietly but I’m beginning to see (some) positives in the No deal scenario for....
...Europe.
German media seems increasingly resigned to it - and there’s a reason for this - it no longer fears this.
A thread.
...Europe.
German media seems increasingly resigned to it - and there’s a reason for this - it no longer fears this.
A thread.
2/
After Brexit vote 4 of the major fears in EU were the following:
1. Govts feared a rightwing eurosceptic domino effect
2. Ireland feared border chaos
3. Northern Europe feared reduction in exports
4. Eastern Europe feared for its citizens in the UK
After Brexit vote 4 of the major fears in EU were the following:
1. Govts feared a rightwing eurosceptic domino effect
2. Ireland feared border chaos
3. Northern Europe feared reduction in exports
4. Eastern Europe feared for its citizens in the UK
3/
The eurosceptic domino effect never happened. Indeed it drew EU govts closer together like never before.
And seeing the chaos engulf UK no one - even the French arch eurosceptic National Front - wants to destroy themselves the way the UK has over the last 4 years.
The eurosceptic domino effect never happened. Indeed it drew EU govts closer together like never before.
And seeing the chaos engulf UK no one - even the French arch eurosceptic National Front - wants to destroy themselves the way the UK has over the last 4 years.
4/
The Irish border issue is despite some difficulty turning out to be less contentious. Most parties in Ireland have behaved responsibly - while Johnson’s apparent acquiescence to Irish Sea border means the Irish question could turn out to be a 1st step to unification.
The Irish border issue is despite some difficulty turning out to be less contentious. Most parties in Ireland have behaved responsibly - while Johnson’s apparent acquiescence to Irish Sea border means the Irish question could turn out to be a 1st step to unification.
5/
Exports to UK may turn out less of a problem than 1st thought:
a. UK has shown itself incapable of organising new border arrangements so is likely to allow most imports in anyway.
b. EU has concluded trade deals with states equivalent to UK trade since 2016 mitigating loss.
Exports to UK may turn out less of a problem than 1st thought:
a. UK has shown itself incapable of organising new border arrangements so is likely to allow most imports in anyway.
b. EU has concluded trade deals with states equivalent to UK trade since 2016 mitigating loss.
6/
c. The extended delay has allowed a gradual shift of supply chains and service operators to the EU mainland.
d. Post Coronavirus/Brexit UK economic & £ weakness is likely to see a reduction in UK imports from everywhere that a deal might not renedy anyway
c. The extended delay has allowed a gradual shift of supply chains and service operators to the EU mainland.
d. Post Coronavirus/Brexit UK economic & £ weakness is likely to see a reduction in UK imports from everywhere that a deal might not renedy anyway
7/
While East/South Europeans are no longer fearing return of UK resident workers. Indeed some like Poland were actively encouraging it in 2019 as Labour shortages hit.
Eastern Europe has caught up & the era of big Eastern emigration was drawing to a close even before Brexit.
While East/South Europeans are no longer fearing return of UK resident workers. Indeed some like Poland were actively encouraging it in 2019 as Labour shortages hit.
Eastern Europe has caught up & the era of big Eastern emigration was drawing to a close even before Brexit.
8/
As someone (for obvious reasons) who reads German media everyday it’s surprising from a UK perspective how little German media care about “no deal scenario”.
They simply don’t care.
The reporting is more about how UK isn’t prepared.
The Germans? Ist absolut egal.
As someone (for obvious reasons) who reads German media everyday it’s surprising from a UK perspective how little German media care about “no deal scenario”.
They simply don’t care.
The reporting is more about how UK isn’t prepared.
The Germans? Ist absolut egal.
9/
Thats why UK govt may be right when they blame EU for “not enough progress” in Brexit talks.
I believe EU now no longer fears no deal & will do a deal only if it gets exactly what it wants. A bit of compromise for form sake perhaps, but essentially..it’s EUs deal or no deal.
Thats why UK govt may be right when they blame EU for “not enough progress” in Brexit talks.
I believe EU now no longer fears no deal & will do a deal only if it gets exactly what it wants. A bit of compromise for form sake perhaps, but essentially..it’s EUs deal or no deal.
10/
This is where it gets wierd.
I now think the real debate is about what sort of no deal it is. I think there’ll be enough caveats agreed & UK will keep borders open in order to..
..continue Negotiating.
Brexit won’t finish on January 2021..
..it’s only just begun.
/Ends
This is where it gets wierd.
I now think the real debate is about what sort of no deal it is. I think there’ll be enough caveats agreed & UK will keep borders open in order to..
..continue Negotiating.
Brexit won’t finish on January 2021..
..it’s only just begun.
/Ends
