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Fact: when President Trump took office in January 2017, there were 241 Republicans in the House.

Since then, 115 (48%) have either retired, resigned, been defeated or are retiring in 2020.
Keep in mind: most of the Rs likeliest to speak out *against* Trump were replaced by Democrats, and most others - like Tipton in #CO03 - are being replaced by even more pro-Trump Rs.

Lesson: there is no going back to a GOP “before Trump.”
For reference, this 48% figure exceeds the attrition rate of Democrats at this point in Obama's first term - 112/256 (44%) - and note that 2012 being a redistricting year contributed to plenty of Dem retirements/losses.
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#CO03

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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
I've seen enough: Lauren Boebert (R) has defeated Rep. Scott Tipton (R) in the #CO03 primary. Tipton becomes the fifth House incumbent to lose renomination in 2020.
This Western Slope district voted for Trump 52%-40% in 2016, so it's still going to be a heavy lift for Diane Mitsch Bush (D), who lost to Tipton 52%-44% in 2018. #CO03
Even so, Boebert's favorable comments regarding the QAnon conspiracy world warrant a move of #CO03 from Solid R to Likely R at @CookPolitical.
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Ordinarily, it's easy to dismiss Biden's gaffes b/c they're priced into voters' expectations. But this one might be different: black voters are the margin in 5 of the 6 most critical Electoral prizes (FL, MI, NC, PA, WI) and Biden just handed Trump a new three-word fall meme.
Biden's base in the primaries was older African-Americans, who will vote for him overwhelmingly. The challenge for Biden remains younger black voters (esp. male) who liked/voted for Obama, didn't vote in 2016 and don't identify w/ either political party.
Trump has next to no appeal or credibility w/ this demographic. But his campaign’s goal will be to drive down Biden’s appeal w/ young black voters (1994 crime bill, Anita Hill, busing, etc.) to blur distinctions & depress turnout, as in 2016. It can work, and margins matter.
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Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Keep in mind: if this were the actual popular vote result, Trump would likely win the Electoral College.
There are a few plausible Biden routes to beating Trump:

1) match Clinton gains in upscale burbs & improve among rural/non-college
2) do even better than Clinton in burbs & hold ground w/ rural/non-college
3) gain w/ both

Any of these = expanding on Clinton's 2.1% PV margin.
But when I hear arguments like "Biden's got a totally different coalition/appeal from Clinton, so Trump's advantage in the Electoral College no longer applies," I don't buy it.

There is no realistic scenario in which Biden defeats Trump but is only winning the PV by like 1%.
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