Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #CO03

Most recents (24)

#CO03 I wanna put to rest this idea that Lauren Boebert puts the seat at risk.

1. Boebert got more votes than O'Dea and Gnahl in every Red County
2. Boebert was the best performing R in the two reddest counties in her district
3. Boebert was 2nd best in Pueblo and 3rd in Mesa.
4. Oh no Joe O'Dea got more votes in elitist Ski Country counties what a shame, darn.
5. Boebert ran ahead of Joe O'Dea's margins in 19 of CO03's 26 counties.
6. If Boebert had run in line with O'Dea in the rural counties, she would have lost.
As long as the top of the ticket runs a competent campaign (IE Cory Gardner) for Colorado Standards, Lauren is completely fine. CO03 ain't NE02 or AZ01 folks. Lauren will win in 2024 :)
Read 3 tweets
A contrast:

Adam Frisch and Adam Gray lost #CO03 and #CA13, respectively, by less than 600 votes each. And they conceded. Didn’t cry fraud. Didn’t insult the integrity of elections workers. Didn’t claim that the elections were rigged.

Compare that to Kari Lake and Mark Finchem.
Lake and Finchem lost their races by a larger point margin than Frisch and Gray. And they continue, to this day, to insist that they won the race and that the contest was “stolen” from them. Even though they didn’t even do as well as Trump in 2022 - and HE lost.
Losing an election doesn’t make somebody a loser.

Lying to people’s faces, manipulating people, not having an ounce of dignity and being willing to burn democracy to the ground for the sake of your bruised ego - THAT makes you a loser.
Read 3 tweets
UPDATE on #CO03 — Lauren Boebert is leading by 1,097 votes.
(Gap narrowed by 25 votes)
Boebert lead down to 1075 now. #CO03
Read 10 tweets
To be very clear - what Galen is referring to here is that Colorado accepts ballots as valid as long as they are postmarked by election day. These are trickling in.

Frisch is going to narrow the vote gap on registration alone - the question is just how much.

#co03 #copolitics
These late votes are definitely breaking in Frisch's favor via registration, but I want to caveat this by saying 1) registration != vote choice and 2) we don't know the exact count of ballots remained to be counted.

Everyone sit tight and let the hype train roll.
It's been brought to my attention that the postmarked-by-ED ballots are only military/UOCAVA. A lot of this is just election night backlog. So I am partially right here - but this is going to favor Dems somewhat - just remains to be seen.

Read 3 tweets
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
📣📣 A few days ago I posted my analysis of whether the GOP's COVID Death Cult 💀 is likely to be the decisive factor in any *statewide* races. My conclusion was that #NVSenate is the most likely candidate for this (& potentially #AZGov, #AZAG & the upcoming #GASenate Runoff). 1/
I estimate that *if* CCM ends up winning the #NVSenate race by less than ~2,400 votes, there's a very strong argument to be made that the GOP COVID Death Cult is what made the difference.

The same applies if Dems win #AZGov or #AZAG by less than ~4,100 votes. 2/
In the case of #GASenate, if Raphael Warnock ends up winning the upcoming runoff election by less than ~5,700 votes, I would also put it in this category.

TODAY, as promised, I'm looking at this question for HOUSE races, which are a lot trickier to do due to district borders. 3/
Read 13 tweets
New: There are 32 House races the AP hasn't called yet, but they aren't all created equal. My best (reported) guess about which way they're breaking, and whether Dems have any shot at the majority.…
Breaking it down, 2 of them are in D-vs.-D Calif. races, 2 GOP candidates have conceded, Dems are favored in 2 RCV tabulations. Then there are a dozen-plus other races where there's a clear favorite.…
For those keeping score at home, these are the 11 races we think are up for grabs: #AZ01, #AZ06, #CA13, #CA22, #CA41, #CA47, #CA49, #CO03, #NY22, #OR06, #WA03.

GOP currently leads in 6, Dems lead in 5. GOP needs to win 3, Dems need to win 9.
Read 4 tweets
If the non-in person number is that high - Frisch is absolutely still in this.

It depends on whether the mail is earlier (more D) or later (swing/narrow R).

Either way, buckle up because this seat is likely to be the 218th for either person.
Otero also has some votes up for grabs left - those will break R. But we don't really know how much.

Just want to commend Anna here for her amazing job - this ain't easy!
Either way, this is like covering a football game with how crazy and chaotic this is.

Honestly my duel voting proposal wouldn't be out of place here.
Read 4 tweets
I really hate to do this, but I am retracting my call for Dems in #CO03. I have been made aware of phantom ballots that have yet to be counted, which were not known of this morning, this opens a few more paths for Boebert.

Just for the record, I would *still* rather be Frisch.
The call this morning was made with the knowledge that there were only 14,000 ballots left. There could be as many as 23,000, with some coming from heavily Republican areas. We will monitor the situation.

Again, apologies.
Please rt this and spread the word. I am deleting my old call - because I do not want to spread misinformation.
Read 3 tweets
GOP House math coming into focus:

206 seats are locked down.

R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.

That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
The easiest path to 4:

#CA41 Calvert (R) holds a Trump seat as more votes come in.

#WA03 Kent (R) comes back as late votes typically break R in WA.

#AZ01 Schweikert (R) comes back as late votes are generally pro-R in Arizona.

#CA27 Garcia (R) holds his 15-point lead.
Republicans are also bullish on #CT05, which is very close. R's lead #OR05 by 4 and #CA22 by 8, but with more mail-ballot uncertainty (the NYT needle sees R's as modest favorites in both).

Regardless, it's a wait-and-see game with Western mail votes.
Read 3 tweets
This is a spreadsheet of Cook Report races which I made based on currently reported results (9am Wed).

+1= Dem Victory
-1=GOP Victory
+0.5= Dem winning
-0.5 = GOP winning

Based on this, right now, I think the Dems hold onto the US House.

#Election2022 Image
Note especially: 3 (of 10 total) GOP "Toss up" seats have already been called for Democratic Victory.
#NC13 #OH01 #TX34.

On the Dem "Toss up" side, there's #VA02 which flipped Red. But that's it.
In summary, of currently held Dem seats, only 1 flipped Dem-> GOP (#VA02), with 6 races leaning GOP.

On the other hand, of current GOP seats, 4 have flipped GOP->Dem (#MT01, #NC13, #OH01, #TX34) and 7 lean Democrats.

I think the Democrats will win the US House. Image
Read 22 tweets
Colorado Progressives Celebrate Another Night of Historic Victories… #copolitics #coleg #cogov #cosen
"If Colorado Republicans couldn’t win this year, they have only themselves to blame and they may truly be on the verge of permanent minority status in our state."… #copolitics #coleg #cogov #cosen
"Colorado Republicans under Trump have made themselves toxic to Colorado voters, and voters saw right through Joe O’Dea’s desperate attempts to distance himself from his own party’s brand." @SaraLoflin… #copolitics #coleg #cogov #cosen
Read 6 tweets
#CO03 has been pointed out as a sleeper based on early vote data from @GalenMetzger1 (CO data hype man).

Looking at the reg data, do I agree?

Definitely maybe. Thread below
Boebert is a shit candidate. The fact that this seat is competitive is 100% due to her being a shit candidate - Rs in a red year in the 3rd usually win by double digits, nearing 20 points. See: Tipton, Scott and McInnis, Scott
Looking at returned ballots, and using a 15% split in Eagle County (the portion of the county in CD3), there's a roughly 13k firewall for registered Rs - in 2020 this number was 32k and it was roughly similar in 2018.
Read 10 tweets
The 5 most important races in the country right now. A thread:

1. Liz Cheney, Wyoming, the Vice-Chair of the 1/6 committee is running in the GOP primary against a Trump-backed candidate who seeks to punish Cheney for standing up to Trump.

Vote Liz Cheney in the GOP primary!
2. Evan McMullin, former "Never Trump" independent presidential candidate, is running for Senate in Utah against the Trump-sycophant-incumbent Mike Lee.
The Democratic party of UT endorsed McMullin.

In November, regardless of your political affiliation, Vote @EvanMcMullin Image
3. Adam Frisch, is a centrist Democrat running in #CO03 to unseat the worst member of Congress- Lauren Boebert.

In November the choice couldn't be clearer: Vote for @AdamForColorado over a deranged, anti-democracy Lauren Boebert.
Read 6 tweets
We have the #CO03 primary rated as Likely Boebert out of the paucity of data available to us, but if Lauren Boebert somehow loses tonight, it would be the single biggest upset electoral upset *anywhere* in the United States since Dave Brat unseated Eric Cantor in 2014.
If you're curious, @Thorongil16 had an amazing breakdown of it here!…
I really should say: there's a reason we have this race at Likely Boebert instead of Safe right now. Coram took on the impossible, but still has a definite lane. It's just that this is a very tough needle to thread, because of how that district's Republican lean actually is.
Read 4 tweets
It's a Super Tuesday with a special House election in Nebraska, House GOP runoffs in Mississippi as well as primary elections in Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma, South Carolina and Utah.
Special #NE01 House election today to fill fmr GOP Rep. Jeff Fortenberry's vacant seat until end of 2022.He resigned March 31 after being convicted.Fmr NE Legislature Spkr Republican Mike Flood & Democratic State Sen Patty Pansing Brooks face off in both today's & fall elections.
Two House GOP runoff elections in MS today: 6th term #MS04 GOP Rep. Steven Palazzo,who is facing Ethics Cmte investigation for allegedly misusing campaign fund,& 2nd term #MS03 Rep. Michael Guest,who voted to create independent commission to investigate 1/6 attack on US Capitol.
Read 9 tweets
@GGGiantGinger @MacFarlaneNews Okay, Texas uses the open primary system.

You should consider which party dominates your gerrymandered district(s) and vote in that party’s primary to maximize your influence in choosing a candidate likely to win in the General Election in November.

@GGGiantGinger @MacFarlaneNews Just as an example, consider the 2021 Special Election in Texas #TX06, which uses different rules.

The top 2 candidates in the runoff were both Republicans.

Trump endorsed one; many people of good will came together to vote for the other, who won.

@GGGiantGinger @MacFarlaneNews I’ll be honest:

He’s still a conservative Republican reactionary, but in politics, the enemy of my enemy is my friend.

Similarly, voters used North Carolina’s semi-open primary to switch to Unaffiliated to get a Republican ballot to vote Against Madison Cawthorn in #NC11.

Read 8 tweets
@JoeyDevlin_ My suggested perspective is for every American to think strategically about how to maximize your influence in the political process by registering and voting.

It varies by state.

Some states have the “closed primary,” only for registered party members.

@JoeyDevlin_ In a “closed primary” state, one should register with the dominant party in the region or state, to vote in the closed party primary likely to pick the winner.

This doesn’t necessarily have to coincide with one’s individual political philosophy.

Maximize one’s influence.

@JoeyDevlin_ In a semi-open primary state, Colorado, Georgia, North Carolina, register as Unaffiliated (or equivalent) to choose your party at each election.

For example, in #NC11 May 17, many progressives requested a Republican ballot to vote Against Madison Cawthorn. @davidbwheeler

Read 5 tweets
@ngags52 @BLegoat @CheeseyPrince @joncoopertweets Actually, @GeorgiaDemocrat in #GA14, and @coloradodems in #CO03, in accordance with state law, should switch to Republican or whatever to vote Against incumbents in the Republican primary, which will decide the election in those GOP-dominated districts.

@ngags52 @BLegoat @CheeseyPrince @joncoopertweets @GeorgiaDemocrat @coloradodems @Marcus4Georgia and @Holly_4Congress are grifters who are lying to their donors about the Democratic primary.

Neither will win in November.

Does @staceyabrams care?

Does @ReverendWarnock care?

Out-of-state donors don’t mind uphill fighting, but without lying.

Read 3 tweets
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
Read 38 tweets
Colorado's congressional redistricting commission has released its first 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗿𝘆* map.

𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗿𝘆. This will change. But here's where they're starting from. #copolitics #co03 #co08 Image
Here's the estimated partisan leans of the proposed Colorado districts. #copolitics

1: (DeGette-D) D+56
2: (Neguse-D) D+27
3: (Boebert-R) R+10
4: (Buck-R) R+23
5: (Lamborn-R) R+20
6: (Crow-D) D+13
7: (Perlmutter-D) R+3 (!!)
8: (Open) D+7
Again, this map will undoubtedly change. But if it didn't — or if the final one looks similar — this is a really, really good map for Republicans.

It's quite possible there would be a 4-4 split in Colorado's U.S. House delegation with this map. In a Democratic state. #copolitics
Read 3 tweets
Colorado's independent redistricting commission will release a preliminary congressional map shortly. Here are 2 maps I just quickly drew to give you a basic idea.

Left has a Latino district #CO01:…
Right keeps Denver mostly whole:…
Both of these CO maps would have 4 relatively safe Dem districts, 3 relatively safe GOP districts (though Boebert could imperil their hold on #CO03), & the new #CO08 would be a swingy Trump '16 - Biden '20 district. I don't have precise 2020 data yet
Breaking: Colorado's independent redistricting commission just released its preliminary congressional map proposal.

This map is very problematic IMO for not drawing a substantially Latino district in Denver as I did upthread & instead prioritizes keeping Denver mostly whole
Read 9 tweets
We're celebrating this morning as 13 NEW proudly #ProLife women (and counting‼️) win their races for the U.S. House!!

#FL27 @MaElviraSalazar

#NM02 @Yvette4congress

#MN07 @FischbachMN7

#SC01 @NancyMace

#OK05 @stephaniebice

These courageous women join the 13 current incumbent #ProLife women in the U.S. House who ALL won their races last night.

We're so proud of these women who will be a bold voice for moms and unborn babies on Capitol Hill & we look forward to working with them to save lives!

Read 3 tweets
The Candidate Spotlight is on two terrific #ProLife Coloradans today. First up is Senator @CoryGardner running for re-election to the U.S. Senate, who we could not be prouder to support!
#SBAListCandidateSpotlights #SBAListEndorsed #COpol Image
Senator @CoryGardner has been a champion for the unborn throughout his first term in the Senate. He voted to ban infanticide, end painful late-term abortions, & has confirmed 3 #ProLife Supreme Court Justices! See his “A” Rating & voting record below…
Senator @CoryGardner is now up against anti-life John Hickenlooper, who has already committed himself to doing the bidding of the horrific abortion industry. A vote for Hickenlooper = a vote for taxpayer-funded abortion on demand. #COpol #COsen
Read 7 tweets

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