Profile picture
, 3 tweets, 1 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
Keep in mind: if this were the actual popular vote result, Trump would likely win the Electoral College.
There are a few plausible Biden routes to beating Trump:

1) match Clinton gains in upscale burbs & improve among rural/non-college
2) do even better than Clinton in burbs & hold ground w/ rural/non-college
3) gain w/ both

Any of these = expanding on Clinton's 2.1% PV margin.
But when I hear arguments like "Biden's got a totally different coalition/appeal from Clinton, so Trump's advantage in the Electoral College no longer applies," I don't buy it.

There is no realistic scenario in which Biden defeats Trump but is only winning the PV by like 1%.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Dave Wasserman

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Redistrict see all

Profile picture
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
NEW at @CookPolitical: 10 rating changes (7 towards Ds, 3 towards Rs) as Democrats' edge in the battle for the House grows...
Basically, #COVID19 has all but frozen House recruitment & severely curtailed fundraising. That's an advantage for incumbents & bad news for upstates.

At end of 2019, median House D in a Trump district had $1.8 million cash on hand while median leading R challenger had $247,000.
Today, we've moved four freshman Dems out of Toss Up based on the weakness of their GOP opposition:

#IL14 Lauren Underwood (D) - Toss Up to Lean D
#MI08 Elissa Slotkin (D) - Toss Up to Lean D
#NY19 Antonio Delgado (D) - Toss Up to Lean D
#UT04 Ben McAdams (D) - Toss Up to Lean D
Read 6 tweets
Profile picture
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
Relevant as U.S. death toll hits four digits: by my calc, counties that voted for Trump in 2016 account for 45% of the U.S. population but so far just 19% of all U.S. #COVID19 deaths, per JHU data.
Why relevant? It's helping drive the partisan, urban/rural gulf in public opinion on the severity of the crisis. The question is whether public opinion changes when, as most experts expect, the latter % rises over next few weeks.
Update: in the past three days, the #COVID19 U.S. death toll has doubled, but Trump-won counties' share of all deaths has actually *fallen* from 19% to 17% as toll in NY, NJ & Detroit has surged, per JHU data.

Trump-won counties make up 45% of the U.S. population.
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
A reality Dems have to grapple with: more voters are starting to accept Trump’s version of the story. morningconsult.com/2020/03/20/tru…
Many Trump opponents take it as an article of faith that NYT/WaPo/CNN/mainstream coverage will persuade the country of his faults.

In doing so, they’re underestimating Trump’s ability to write/rewrite history of COVID response. Those outlets aren’t getting through.
That’s why over the course of 2020 I’ll be much more focused on what @taraemcg & Dems/Biden’s social media strategies look like than what’s on the editorial pages of the NYT/WaPo, which have essentially become ineffectual echo chambers.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Dreamweasel
@Dreamweasel
Welcome to life in 2020, where the lion’s share of what passes for political discourse consists of Explaining Extremely Obvious Things to People Who Refuse to Listen
- Donald Trump ordered the Soleimani assassination for two extremely self-centered reasons:

1. To get impeachment off the front page

2. To attain whatever privileges come with being a wartime President

That’s really it. As always, Trump’s only priority is himself.
- Trump isn’t an expert on the Middle East, and he doesn’t listen to the people who are.

- Not only is he unwilling to consider how the consequences of his actions affect anyone else, he appears genuinely incapable of doing so. One cannot assess his motivations in any other way.
Read 15 tweets
Profile picture
Angus Johnston
@studentactivism
It's fascinating to me when people say that without the Electoral College Republicans would never win the presidency, as if Eisenhower, Nixon, and Reagan didn't each win the popular vote twice, often by wide margins.
The Electoral College delivering the presidency to the loser of the popular vote isn't a bedrock feature of American politics—for the entirety of the 1900s, it never happened once.
The Republicans aren't winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote in the 21st century because that's what the founders intended. It's happening because they keep failing to win broad popular support.
Read 24 tweets
Profile picture
M.S. Bellows, Jr.
@msbellows
THREAD: This may be the most important issue of our lifetimes, bec it raises the significant possibility that the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact will be found unconstitutional and that there is no way to restore democracy by neutering the Electoral College.
1/
In the new case, Colorado was clear that the Popular Vote Compact is at stake: "[Colorado] argues... that we must decide whether there is 'any constitutional bar against the States binding their electors to the outcome of the State’s popular vote.'"
2/
The 10th Circuit concluded that states do NOT have that power: "states do not have the constitutional authority to interfere with presidential electors who exercise their constitutional right to vote for the President and Vice President candidates of their choice."
3/
Read 17 tweets
Profile picture
Dan McLaughlin
@baseballcrank
This is why we have the Electoral College and not a pure popular vote system.
As I noted in my Electoral College piece, a presidential candidate who is not even on the ballot in politically homogenous states - as Lincoln wasn't in the South in 1860 - skews the national popular vote. nationalreview.com/2019/04/what-t…
I used this hypothetical example: R candidate wins 48 states by identical 54-46 margins, D wins CA, NY & DC by 75-25 margins, D wins national popular vote. Who should win?
Read 35 tweets
Profile picture
Tinu thousand 19.
@Tinu
I've shifted away from Beto but this way of looking at him is flawed. Because it's out of context.
A- He didn't lose Texas. Take a closer look at Texas, the system is *extremely* corrupted. We the people of Texas were cheated.

His identity outside if Texas may be about "losing Texas"
Beto running for president is partly about

B- how he ran his campaign in Texas, and how that swayed a lot of Republicans and typically Reoublican insiturions without losing Democrats and

C- a person who could unite Texas, without compromising Dem ideals, may be needed.
Read 17 tweets
Profile picture
Sibel Edmonds
@sibeledmonds
#Khashoggi Case Thread: I am going to ‘pin’ this post to use it as an ‘Info Thread’ on the #Khashoggi Case. I am in #Turkey. I’ve been following the case closely and with access to sources & experts here. This is a very ‘sensitive’ criminal case due to ‘Diplomatic Booby Traps’!!!
The Evidence Obtained Outside Cameras will not show any evidence of ‘tempering’ but other than license plates of dozens of diplomatic cars (Many with tinted windows-large trunks) with related time stamp, drivers Info, model/year: Nothing.
#Turkish Intel-Investigative Bodies also have the list of all Diplomatic & Private Saudi & “other significant’ Planes in #Turkey for the period of ‘interest.’ Many of the Target airports have their own security cameras & related evidence.
Read 335 tweets

Trending hashtags

#Astana #Spanish #Lafarge #Democrats #Qamishlo #Erdogan #DeirEzzor #Romney #OperationPeaceSpring #Warren #RightTime #Russia #FlavorBan #Kashoggi #Tech #David_Macilwain #SuudiArabistan #Assad #Thailand #FBI #Putin #Huawei #Yemen #TrumpPressuredUkraine #Washington

Embed code for your website

×
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!