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Extremely important story on the @DHSCgovuk refusal to publish local COVID case numbers.

People can’t be responsible without information.

The following two tweets show much better practice in Germany and Italy

1/
ft.com/content/301c84…
In Germany the @rki_de published a detailed daily brief - both in German and English

The German language version is more detailed, but this English version dwarfs the information the UK publishes

2/
rki.de/DE/Content/Inf…
But the data is available so German third parties can produce timely extremely local information. This from Die Zeit for example

3/ zeit.de/wissen/gesundh…
And in Italy the local case data is also comprehensive and daily - so others can produce great information for the public such as this from Il Sole 24 Ora

4/ lab24.ilsole24ore.com/coronavirus/en/
It seems the government does not trust the UK people with information important for their lives

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More from @ChrisGiles_ see all

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Chris Giles
@ChrisGiles_
Update: Good news at last. Total number of death registrations in week ending June 19 below the five year average for first time since March 20.

The number of UK excess death registrations in this part of the pandemic rounds to

65,200

This number is now stable

1/
When looking at occurances of deaths, it is likely the number will be higher, as @statsjamie has pointed out due to delays in registrations, but this will not be known for some time. His estimate is roughly

69,000

2/
@statsjamie There is room for debate about the counterfactual (what would deaths have really been over past 13 weeks without coronavirus)

These figures are underestimates (2020 had been a good year for deaths with good weather)

or

overestimates (v elderly population was higher)

3/
Read 4 tweets
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Chris Giles
@ChrisGiles_
⚠️ Warning: nuanced argument/thread utterly unsuitable for Twitter on the rich, taxes and visualising data ⚠️

This graph from Warwick/London School of Economics suggests the rich pay lower tax rates than "normal" people and the gap widens for the filthy rich

1/
My nuanced argument is:
- The chart and paper seeks to misinform you about the rich and taxes (they should desist)
- The authors' underlying concern about elements of the UK tax system is legitimate

FT write up:
ft.com/content/09f373…

Paper:
warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econom…

2/
Go back to the chart showing average tax rates at different levels of income over £100,000 (blue line)

1) Only shows people with incomes over £100,000
- in 2016 there were 31,200,000 income tax payers
- 858,000 are represented here
- 30,342,000 are ignored

3/
Read 11 tweets
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Chris Giles
@ChrisGiles_
Update: following today's ONS figures and hospital data, a cautious estimate of the total number of UK excess deaths linked to coronavirus up to 9 June is

66,000

Of these, just over 63,700 have sadly happened, 2,300 are estimates to bring the official data up to date

1/
Why do I say cautious?

I estimate the ONS data relates approximately to deaths up to 25 May. Since then the department of health has said there were 3,510 deaths of those testing positive. I estimate only 2,202 over the same period of excess deaths.

2/
There is some emerging evidence of a change in patterns of death registrations as the numbers return to more normal levels.

And some of the additional people who have died during the pandemic were frail and might have died in this period anyway.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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