1 July 2020 #MAGAanalysis
Make Polls Truthful...Again?
I posted an informal survey yesterday, as you can see below. The results were nothing short of stunning to me. I'll have to explain some mechanics in a moment, but this one small poll shouts a critical truth.
Make Polls Truthful...Again?
I posted an informal survey yesterday, as you can see below. The results were nothing short of stunning to me. I'll have to explain some mechanics in a moment, but this one small poll shouts a critical truth.
2) Polling is supposed to be the search for truth. It can, and maybe must employ the tools of statistics. Maybe not. But, no matter what tools it is supposed to seek the truth. If it did, America's political scene would be a very different one, today, than it is.
3) Those who responded to my 4 questions were unanimous in their position. They are enthusiastic Trump supporters, near close to 100% he will win. Many call for a landslide. Almost all call for victory without doubt. A tiny percent are not 100% certain.
4) The thing that this shouts is this. The condition of polling in America DOES NOT COUNT THEIR VOICES.
In America today, polling does NOT seek the truth. It pushes an agenda, and one of its most important objectives is to silence those who answered my questions yesterday.
In America today, polling does NOT seek the truth. It pushes an agenda, and one of its most important objectives is to silence those who answered my questions yesterday.
5) If you check, I have about 8,500 followers. As I delve into the analytics Twitter provides, it appears that my 4 questions each got roughly 150 direct engagements, and received between 50 & 60 responses. Please mind, I've never offered a survey before.
6) And let's be clear, there are multiple levels of selection - you might call it selection bias - involved. Those who follow me do so, in large part, due precisely to my own enthusiastic support of President Trump. Within that reach, between 1,100 & 1,200 or so saw my questions.
7) I am a long way from being expert in either tracking those numbers - the mechanics are not easy for me, at least - or analyzing their significance. But, a 1 in 8 reach, and an over 10% engagement ratio seems very high to me. Then, roughly 1/3 response. Amazing.
8) If you follow me, you know that I've been working as a consumer and analyst of polls themselves, their output and methods, since 2016. My motivation to create a new polling method is due to my dissatisfaction as a consumer. I know very little about producing polls, yet.
9) But as I read the answers to my 4 questions coming in, yesterday, I was overwhelmed by the power of the responses. What I heard was voices who felt not heard. Voices suppressed by the agenda of today's polling methods. I don't mind confessing it was a bit overwhelming.
10) I just looked again right now, and the 4 questions received, in sequence, 57, 56, 55, and 55 responses. That tells me that with near 100% consistency, once a person answered question 1, they went on to answer questions 2, 3, and 4. This speaks to motivation.
11) I don't know about your experience in social media, but I've never had ANYTHING like that level of engagement and response before. To me, there can be no question. These 57 people want to stand up and be counted. And I know, I want their voices to be heard.
12) For my endeavor to succeed, I'm going to have to find a way to add Democrat and Independent voices also. As I recently mentioned, I've been pondering this initiative, and working on it, since December 2019. I have a great team of co-conspirators helping, too.
13) In every iteration we've gone through, we come back to that question. How do we find honest Democrats and Independents who will also wish to answer honest questions, reported upon honestly and transparently to the world? I don't yet know how, but I know we can.
14) I suspect that some combination of a basic website and/or, perhaps, a Facebook page may be the simplest answer as to where to send people. We're working on those right now. In the meantime, I can't give up on you, my Twitter followers and readers as a possible answer.
15) I asked about Democrat and Independent friends, earlier this week. The response was very small, just a few people. But, among them, the answer was pretty universal. You told me you don't really have good Democrat or Independent friends. This, I believe, is significant.
16) We obviously know about the great divide in America today. I, however, had not made it quite that personal. My Republican friends do not have good Democrat friends, it appears. I really did know it, but, I hadn't plumbed the depths of how serious this really is.
17) Mind, people have been trying to tell me. I just haven't understood. The divide may in fact be so great as to be impossible to heal. If that's the case, I damn well wake up and come out of my state of denial, fast. So, I want to test this, further, right now.
18) I have family members who are absolutely anti-Trump Democrats, passionately. I am going to work with them to discover if they can be reached with the offer, the opportunity to stand and be counted by answering the exact same 4 questions.
19) And that's what I'm asking you to work on, too, with me. Being me, I'd love to meet them, and have them follow me here at Twitter, but I don't imagine that will work for them. Why follow me, a complete Trump man from the get go? What's in it for them?
So, rather than asking them to show up here, I have this request to make of you. Find a way to speak to them, ask them my 4 questions, yourself, and note their answers. I've written about this under the term 'Speaking Dornsife-ese.'
21) My family enjoys what we call our Big Family Chat, in the medium What's App. We can all speak to each other one-on-one there, too. As my insane Trump support is so well known, I will have to use some craft to get answers, but I'll do my best.
22) The direct approach won't work. I will have to go through key influencers in our family, who will have far better chances of eliciting answers. It will be tricky, but it's going to be SO FUN! I will keep track of our numbers, and report them faithfully to you, here.
23) Please remember, we're still in the absolutely informal stage, here. My "keeping track of the numbers" is far more seat of the pants than any scientific or even decent accounting or databasing would require. I'm really just trying to get the feel of this, you know?
24) So again, that's what I'm asking if you might consider doing, too. This won't be my topic every day, here. And I actually do take some days off of posting a thread here, so I promise not to harangue you. Well, you know, I'll do my best.
25) When I do post on this topic, though, I'll always include the ongoing 4 questions link you saw in the first tweet of this thread, above. That way, it will be easy for you to find the 4 questions, and post answers you may collect from Democrats and Independents if you do.
26) Let's focus on that conversation now, if you decide to attempt it. I'm going to be very directive now, more than I usually am. Ready?
1) You MUST proclaim your actual interest in listening, NOT arguing or debating, and you MUST forswear attempts at conversion. NO CONVERTING.
1) You MUST proclaim your actual interest in listening, NOT arguing or debating, and you MUST forswear attempts at conversion. NO CONVERTING.
2) You must be ready for shocked amazement, disbelief, zero credibility, and even - I'm truly sorry - you must be ready for anger, rage, vitriol, attack, accusation, etc. You must be ready to be called a Nazi, Racist, Homophobe, Xenophobe, you remember, the deplorables basket.
3) You must maintain your calm, loving acceptance of your family members and yes, you may come to realize you DO have Democrat and Independent friends, too; you must remain calm, warm, loving, open hearted in the face of blistering attack and vicious accusations.
4) You must present all 4 questions as early as you can, explaining that you need to hear and record their answers. If this catches their attention, be ready at a moment's notice to bring them right here, to my Twitter account, and show them these threads on topic. Why?
30) I apologize about the numbering confusion, here. Ach. This is the 30th tweet in this thread. The numbers immediately above were guideline numbers. That's part of what happens on live TV, isn't it? Getting back to our show...
31) Why must you be ready to bring your family and friends here, to see these threads? They too will need to know what's going on. They will be absolutely shocked to imagine - they might not be able to pull it off at first - that any Trump supporter would be interested in them.
32) Here are the 4 questions again. You'll want them ready at hand, as we have established:
1) Will you vote in November?
2) Who for?
3) Who should win?
4) Who will win?
I say again, it is critical that you get those 4 questions in front of your friend as rapidly as possible.
1) Will you vote in November?
2) Who for?
3) Who should win?
4) Who will win?
I say again, it is critical that you get those 4 questions in front of your friend as rapidly as possible.
33) Now let's imagine that the anger and disbelief have waned or softened a bit, or that your friend is not as surprised or resistant as many others will be, what comes next? Here, the Dornsife method of nuance becomes very powerful.
34) It might look like this:
1) If you think you'll vote, are you 100% certain to do so, or maybe some other number, less than 100%? If so, what's the probability, for real?
2) Are you absolutely certain you'll vote for your current favorite, then? If not, what's your number?
1) If you think you'll vote, are you 100% certain to do so, or maybe some other number, less than 100%? If so, what's the probability, for real?
2) Are you absolutely certain you'll vote for your current favorite, then? If not, what's your number?
35)
3) Can you imagine there's a difference between should win and will win? If so, who should win, and how much do they really deserve to win; what's their deservingness number?
3) Can you imagine there's a difference between should win and will win? If so, who should win, and how much do they really deserve to win; what's their deservingness number?
36)
4) How clear is your crystal ball? How certain, or uncertain are you, right now, as to the election's outcome? Do you know who will win, and with what degree of certainty?
I hope you're gathering that we're building an actual conversation here, but one with structure.
4) How clear is your crystal ball? How certain, or uncertain are you, right now, as to the election's outcome? Do you know who will win, and with what degree of certainty?
I hope you're gathering that we're building an actual conversation here, but one with structure.
37) Now let's imagine blistering success! All the anger and vitriol may be far more at the surface than it is beneath, in the heart. It may be that the warmth of love and friendship is just right there, underneath, just all covered up. Imagine the love emerging, again.
38) Anger is a flashing kind of thing, and when it rests on top of a foundation of love beneath, after its little storm passes, the reunion and reemerging bond holds tremendous joy. That joy is the hallmark of true victory. Sadly, I must warn again, it won't always happen.
39) But I can and am telling you this. Even with the deepest most long term rage, where love has frayed or ended, listening, asking and listening is still the most powerful tool of healing in the world. And yes, politics is a near perfect place to employ it. Believe it or not.
40) So I say again, please hear me. If you have structure questions, show them to your friend, gain permission to ask and record the answers, ask, shut up...and...
LISTEN!
You will be amazed at what happens. Come back and tell us how it goes. Please!
LISTEN!
You will be amazed at what happens. Come back and tell us how it goes. Please!
Thread ends at #40.
